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Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bull Market in Jeopardy

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As the crucial rally attempt that we pointed out in our previous long-term analysis failed, and the major coins sold off heavily afterwards, the segment is now in a difficult situation. While Bitcoin and especially Ethereum are still in bullish setups, the most valuable coin is now close to a major breakdown that could lead to structural bear market as we laid it out back in January.

Some of the weaker coins are already below the large-scale consolidation patterns that developed after the year-end run-up, and as the divergence between the leaders and the laggards widens, the path of the two dominant coins even more importance.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Bitcoin failed to trigger a short-term buy signal throughout the Ethereum-led rally in May and early June, and that technical weakness still persists, as BTC is now trading right at the April low, testing the key long-term base pattern.

A break below the strong support zone near $5850 would be the first similar event since the beginning of the bear market in 2014, and it could lead to an extended period of bearish bias for Bitcoin after the spectacular bull run of 2017. For now, the bull market is intact, with support found near between $6000 and $6275, at $5850 and below that at $5500, while resistance is ahead at $6500, $7000, $7350, and $7650.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Although Ethereum is clearly stronger from a technical perspective compared to Bitcoin, the coin is struggling to hold the key $500 level, as it is resumed its short-term downtrend. The April lows are well below the current price level and the long-term setup is bullish, so long-term investors could still add to their positions during the selloffs. Resistance above $500 is ahead between $555 and $575, while strong support is near $450, $400, $380.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is now on a long-term sell signal after breaking durably below the $100 level, and the relatively weak coin failed to bounce back above resistance, while being stuck in a short-term downtrend. For now, investors and traders shouldn’t enter new positions until the coin shows significant technical strength, and investors with shorter investment period should be aware of a possibly long period of structurally declining prices. Support is found at $90 and $75 while further resistance is ahead at $110 and $125.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash also confirmed a long-term breakdown this week, and the coin remains weak from a short-term perspective as well. Traders and investors shouldn’t enter new positions here as the short-term downtrend is clearly intact. Primary support is found between $200 and $215, while resistance is ahead just above the current price level and near $300 and $360.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is among the stronger majors, clearly above the April low and within the strong basing pattern between $0.45 and $0.54. That said, the coin is in a declining short-term trend, and traders shouldn’t enter new positions here, while long-term investors could still add to their holdings. Above $0.54, resistance is ahead near $0.64 and $0.73 while further support is around $0.42.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ethereum Classic is among the relatively weaker coins, it remains above the April lows, trading just below the $14.50 support/resistance level. The short-term trend is negative despite the strong bounce during the week, but the long-term trend didn’t turn negative. Support zones are now found near $13.50 and $11, while further resistance is ahead at $16 and $18.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero broke down below crucial support similarly to Litecoin, after remaining relatively weak for several weeks. The coin is now on sell signals on both time-frames and traders and investors shouldn’t enter new positions here. Support is now found at $100 and $80 while above $125 the base pattern between $150 and $175 now could turn into strong resistance.

NEO

NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO also fell below key support, and it is still weak from a short-term perspective confirming the long-term breakdown. As with LTC , Dash, and XMR both traders and investors should avoid new positions, with resistance zone ahead near $40 and $50, and support found near $34 and $30.

IOTA

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is among the stronger majors on both time-frames, holding up above the April lows and the long-term base pattern, even as the short-term trend is negative again. The bullish long-term setup is intact, but traders shouldn’t enter new positions here. Support is now found near $1.1, $1, and $0.92, while resistance is ahead at $1.20, $1.35, and $1.50.

EOS

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS is in the strongest technical position among the majors, holding up in a clear long-term uptrend, while trading in a short-term consolidation pattern. The short-term trend signal is just neutral after this weeks dip, but the longt0 the long-term signal is bullish, and investors could add to their holdings here. Strong support is found at $10 and $9, while resistance is ahead at $12 and $15.50.

How to Use These Charts?

As we stressed in our article on Bitcoin: “…not all strategies are binary (either holding an asset or not).There are many long- and short-term investment and trading strategies that can be successful in a roaring bull market like the one that the crypto-coin segment is experiencing, but mixing the time-frames and mixing trading and investing (see our article on the topic) could lead to troubles.”

Here is a reminder of some of the possible strategies once again:

  • Buy and hold, without caring about day-to-day (or even month-to-month) fluctuations
  • Buy and hold a core position and add on the major dips; a very powerful strategy
  • Buy a certain amount every week or month, and even-out your entry price, without the hassle of timing the market
  • Try to catch major turning points to reduce and “re-boost” your position
  • Trade short-term movements with stop-losses, targets, and strict risk management (this is trading not investing)”

Given the breakdown in several coins, we will issue a detailed guide on investing in bear markets in the coming days.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 394 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Pre-Market Analysis And Chartbook: Brexit Chaos Sparks Turmoil Across Markets

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Thursday Market Snapshot

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2,685 -0.63%
DAX 30 11,360 -0.47%
WTI Crude Oil 56.40 0.71%
GOLD 1,215 0.31%
Bitcoin 5,389 -3.72%
EUR/USD 1.1302 -0.04%

The Brexit process continues to be the main driver in financial markets across asset classes, and the situation in the UK could be best described as chaotic at the moment. While yesterday the British Cabinet’s approval of the draft Brexit plan sparked a brief risk rally, with the Euro the Pound and equities rising hand-in-hand, today, the plan is in serious jeopardy. Several ministers, including the Brexit-Secretary resigned, and the outcome of vote in the Parliament seems doubtful, at best.

GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Pound lost significant ground against all of its peers, with the currency’s losses also being exaggerated by the much worse than expected British Retail Sales data. The GBP/USD pair hit its lowest level this month, touching the 1.2750, while the Euro is relatively strong today, the Dollar’s broad rally still seems intact, and a no-deal Brexit could push the Cable back towards its historic low near 1.20 from late 2016.

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While equities are little changed so far today, the charts still look wounded globally and even the relatively strong US benchmarks are likely headed for, at least, a test of their lows from October. Economic numbers were mixed today in the US, with the Retail Sales report beating the consensus estimates across the board, but with the Philly Fed Index showing an unexpected slowdown in the manufacturing sector.

The Dow, which has been the strongest benchmark recently is hovering near the 25,000 level, after underperforming the broader market yesterday, and with the other indices being in even worse technical shape, the coming days could see another surge in volatility, despite the pullback in Treasury yields across the curve.

Heavy Trading Continues in Commodities

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil finally found support following two months of steep losses and Tuesday’s liquidation event, with the WTI contract rising above the $57 per barrel level yesterday, before a late-day pullback. Today the crucial commodity is performing relatively well in the nervous environment, and although bulls are still not out of the woods, we still expect a bounce above $60 in the coming week.

We will still have the weekly US crude inventory data coming out during the morning session on Wall Street, and volatile trading will likely continue in the throughout the day, with the $54.50 short-term support level and the $57.50 resistance level being in the center of attention.

Gold Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold is also having an interesting session so far, as it is testing the short-term resistance zone near $1215 due to the Brexit uncertainty and the pullback in yields. The precious metal is still well below the consolidation pattern that developed in October, and it would need to rise above $1220 to trigger a short-term trend change, but should risk assets continue their downtrend, gold could quickly rally as high as $1250.

ChartBook

Major Stock Indices

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

VIX (US Volatility Index), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

DAX 30 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

FTSE 100 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EuroStoxx50 Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Nikkei 225 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Shanghai Composite Index CFD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EEM (Emerging Markets ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Forex

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

USD/JPY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EUR/GBP, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

AUD/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities

Copper Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 394 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bear Market Continues With Major Technical Breakdown

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After months of choppy consolidation, yesterday, we saw the largest move in the cryptocurrency segment since April, which took the majors below key technical levels. Bitcoin’s drop is the most important event, since the most valuable coin violated a structurally important base support for the first time since its historic bull run to $20,000 started.

As we warned repeatedly, the market didn’t show signs of healing during the sideways drift, since no leadership developed, and the coins failed to show follow-through following the, sometimes explosive rally attempts, so our trend model remained overwhelmingly bearish throughout the consolidation.

The top altcoins completed their structural breakdowns well ahead of BTC, and the stability of Bitcoin was the most encouraging sign for crypto-bulls, so now, the broad selloff confirmed the next lower in the bear market.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

After violating the primary support at $6275, Bitcoin’s selloff accelerated below the weaker $6000 level and the key zone near $5850 wasn’t enough to support the coin. The structural breakdown will likely lead to a test of the $5000-$5100 zone, while an unlikely recovery would be a very positive development. Primary resistance is now ahead near $5850, while further major support zones are found near $4500 and $3600, and traders and investors still shouldn’t enter new positions here.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Ethereum fell to a marginal new bear market low, outperforming Bitcoin from a short-term technical perspective, but that’s not enough to warrant optimism with regards to the long-term setup. ETH is still in a clear long-term downtrend despite the lengthy consolidation phase, and a test of the $160 level is likely in the coming period.

The coin is still on sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model, and traders and investors should stay away from new positions, with further support found near $130 and with resistance levels ahead near $200 and $235.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 394 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

XRP Price Analysis: XRP/USD Performing Better than Peers; Another New Partner Announced

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  • Ripple’s XRP weighted to the downside, but not performing as bad as some of its peers.
  • CIMB Group are the latest financial organisation to be utilizing Ripple’s technology.

XRP/USD has been firmly on the back foot during trading over the last two sessions now. Selling pressure had hit the whole market on 13th November. This went on to further intensify in the following session, 14th November. A total blood bath was observed across the board, with huge areas of support being breached. The wave hit the entire market. Ripple’s XRP has managed to hold a firmer ground, in comparison to some of the losses encountered with its peers.

Ripple Reveals New Partner – CIMB

CIMB Group, one of the largest south Asian banking organizations, are the latest to be utilize Ripple’s technology. CIMB will leverage Ripple’s technology for its SpeedSend remittance product, this coming from a joint press release. The SpeedSend product is available in a spectrum of Southeast Asian markets. Countries include: Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam. Ripple continue at a rapid pace adding large financial institutions to its network.

Ripple via their announcement stated the following: “Ripple’s blockchain-based solution has been deployed to enhance CIMB’s proprietary remittance product called SpeedSend. This service allows customers to send and receive money with direct account crediting and instant cash collection. The enhancement improves their access to cross-border remittances across the globe — both inbound into ASEAN and outbound to other countries. It is already enabling remittances to corridors such as Australia, USA, UK and Hong Kong.”

Technical Review – XRP/USD

XRP/USD daily chart

XRP/USD is running at three consecutive sessions in the red, nursing chunky double-digit losses over this period. The price dropped over 20%, a move that was very much in line with the rest of the cryptocurrency market. Price action had been moving within a triangular pattern formation, since 21st September. Thie XRP price observed much narrowing over this period. During the heavy selling pressure on 14th November, the bears had pierced the lower support of the mentioned pattern.

Despite the large lower wick seen on 14th November candlestick, the price managed to close within boundaries of the triangular formation. In terms of current price action on the latest for today, XRP/USD is seen below this area of support. Should the market bears manage to push for a breach and daily close underneath the supporting trend line, this could cause large devastation. Eyes could be on a return to the $0.3000-$0.2500 region. Lastly, worth noting, looking to the upside, the resistance would likely be seen around $0.4800, and this level is critical. This is where the lower trend line is seen tracking.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 50 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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