Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bears Still Firmly in Control
Although we saw plenty of calls for a final bottom in the cryptocurrency segment following the damaging late-2018 sell-off, even today, there is no evidence of a new bullish trend among the top coins. The long-term downtrends are clearly intact, and the past couple of months only qualify as a much-needed consolidation in the wake of the severely oversold momentum readings that developed in December.
Our trend model remained on long-term sell signals throughout the consolidation, with regards to the overwhelming majority of the coins, and still, odds favor the continuation of the bear market. That said, a broader bottoming process might be already underway, but with the top 3 currencies being very close to their bear market lows (from a long-term perspective), caution is still warranted.
While we expected a corrective move in December, the technical progress hasn’t been significant despite the several rally attempts, and now even the short-term signals are negative in our trend model, and we continue to expect at least a test of the lows. So, while the consolidation might still continue traders should only consider short-term positions, even if the recent counter-trend move resumes.
BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
From a broader perspective, the $3600 support has been in focus ever since the December bottom in BTC’s market, and the most valuable coin is still, at least, likely to test the key $3000 level before the end of the bear market. Following the break below the structurally important $5850 level, he rally attempts have been weak, and even the $4450 level hasn’t been retested which signals long-term selling pressure.
The $4000-$4050 zone could is ahead as primary resistance with another strong zone above $4450 found between $5000 and $5050, and with the broad downtrend clearly being intact traders and investors shouldn’t enter new positions here.
ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Following months of relative weakness, Ethereum entered a violent, but orderly, bear market rally, reaching up to the $160 level as expected. Despite the rally the bearish long-term trend remains clearly dominant and with the oversold long-tem momentum readings are no longer supporting the coin, bulls should be aware of the likely retest of the prior market low.
Our trend remains on a long-term sell signal, while currently being bearish from a short-term perspective as well, with strong support found near $130, between $95 and $100, and between $75-$80, and with key resistance above $160 ahead near $180 and near $235.
XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis
Despite the sharp spikes higher in the past couple of months, Ripple failed to build up relative strength compared to the broader market, and the failed rally attempts continue to support the bearish case. XRP looks poised to test the $0.28 and $0.26 levels following the current consolidation period, and with its relative weakness in mind, traders should focus on the stronger coins even concerning the possible short-term, speculative positions.
Below the recently developed resistance zone just above $0.33, even the short-term outlook is clearly negative, with further strong resistance zones near $0.3550, $0.3750, and in the long-term zone between $0.42 and $0.46, while below $0.26 the next target for the bear market is found near $0.2350.
LTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Litecoin has been showing short-term relative strength so far this year, and the coin reached up to the crucial support resistance zone near $51. LTC is the closest to turning the bearish long-term tide among the majors, breaking above the broad declining trendline recently, but given the segment-wide pressures, traders and investors should be cautious even with the relatively strong coins.
That said, should the coin form another long-term swing high somewhere in the $30-$34.50 zone, the bear market could come to an end, and Litecoin might emerge as a leader of the next bullish cycle. Further key support zones are found near $44 and $38, while resistance zones above $51 are found near $56 and $64.
DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Dash continues to be relatively weak from a long-term perspective, and it’s trading in a similar (ABC-like) correction pattern like ETH and BTC, but it decoupled from Litecoin after having been closely correlated for a long time with it.
The long-term sell signal is still in no danger here, and following the lengthy consolidation, the short-term rally attempts will also be more likely to fail, so traders should be cautious with even short-term positions. Primary resistance is near the current price level with another strong zone head between $95 and $100, while support is found near $67 and $56.
ETC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
Ethereum Classic is still very weak on all time-frames, and the coin looks ready to lead the way lower again, with new bear market lows being very likely in the coming months. Bulls would need a move above $5.50 to even consider a broader trend change, but our trend model is on clear sell signals both short- and long-term, and traders should stay away from the coin, with primary resistance found ta $4.50, and with support found near $3.50 and $3.25.
XMR/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis
Monero also failed to show relative strength during the consolidation period, leaving the long-term downtrend clearly intact. XMR didn’t reach the key $60 resistance and the broad declining trendlines are still far above the current price level.
With that in mind, further corrective price action is possible but traders should only consider short-term positions even if the counter-trend move resumes. Primary resistance is ahead near $54 while above $60 another strong zone is found near $80, while support is at $45, $42, and $37.50.
NEO/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis
While NEO almost reached the $11 resistance during the spike higher in February, it remains within its damaging downtrend. The long-term sell signal hasn’t been in danger despite the correction, and now a move towards the bear market low seems likely in the coming weeks. Primary resistance is ahead near $9, while support levels are found at $7 and near $5.50 and traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here.
IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
While IOTA should short-term strength in December and reached the $0.40 level, since then, it has been relatively weak from a technical perspective. The coin is far below its December swing high, and in light of the technical weakness a test of the bear market low is very likely. Resistance levels are now ahead near $0.3150, and $0.35, while support is found near $0.24 and $0.21, and our trend model is on sell signals on both time-frames.
EOS/USD, Daily Chart Analysis
EOS has been the other leader of the recent counter-trend move, rallying up to the $4.50 target before pulling back. Despite the short-term strength, the coin is still clearly bearish from a long-term perspective, and although the short-term advance could still continue, traders should only consider short-term positions in that case. Strong resistance is also ahead near $5, while support is found near $2.8, $2.5, and $2.
Stellar/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis
Stellar remained very weak during the segment-wide correction, hitting a new bear market low in February, and it remains on sell signals on both time-frames in our trend model. The coin is relatively weak from a short-term perspective as well, and traders and investors should stay away from it even if the counter-trend move resumes. Resistance zones are now ahead near $0.09, $0.11, $0.125 and $0.14, while support is found at $0.0725.
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Disclaimer: The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.