Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bearish Trend Intact Despite Explosive Rally Attempts

The negative trend in the cryptocurrency segment continues to be dominant, with almost all of the top coins trading below the structural support levels that were broken during the summer months. Bitcoin is still above the $5850 level, the last base support before last winter’s explosive speculative event, but Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, and the other main altcoins all continued relentlessly lower.

Most of the majors formed a bottom in August, even though Ethereum continued to lead the way lower amid the bleak sentiment and capital flight. Several oversold rally attempts already failed in the segment, leaving the long-term declining trends intact, with last week Ripple providing hope for bulls with its explosive move higher.

While some of the coins tried to follow Ripple higher, the development of a healthy leadership failed yet again, add our trend model continues to be overwhelmingly bearish from a long-term perspective. With that in mind, the short-term buy signals should still be treated cautiously by traders. The August lows are not in direct danger right now, and a more durable bottom might already be in, but a broader rally would be needed to confirm a trend change.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

While BTC has been holding on relatively well during the summer months, in the past weeks, as the largest coin was hurt by selling related to large wallets. The coin failed to show bullish momentum despite its stability, and a break below the key long-term support zone near $5850 is still possible here.

Primary support is at $6275, and in the case of a breakdown below $5850, the next major support zone is found near $5000, while resistance is ahead at $7000, between $7200 and $7300, and in the $7650-$7800.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

After spiking below $180 and forming a panic-bottom, Ethereum rallied up to $260, but due to the extent of the preceding decline, it didn’t reach the declining trendlines which dominated the market for several months. The coin has been leading the selloff in the segment, and now a re-test of the lows is once again likely, even if a more durable bottom is already in.

Short-term support is found at $200 and $180, while below the recent low, further zones are found near $160 and $130, with resistance zones ahead between $275 and$280, near $300, and in the $330-$335 zone.


XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple’s stellar rally above $0.75 broke the declining trendline last week, but until the coin manages to hold up above the $0.42-$0.46 zone for an extended period, the rally remains suspicious from a long-term perspective. With that in mind, the long-term sell signal is still intact in a trend model, especially given the broad weakness in the segment on that time-frame. Below the key long-term zone, support is now found at $0.35 and $0.26, while resistance is ahead at $0.51 and $0.64.


LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin continues to be among the weakest majors and it has been leading the way lower ever since the break below $100, hitting a new low even in September, together with Ethereum. Although LTC spiked up to the $64 resistance this weekend, it clearly remained in a steep downtrend and on a long-term sell signal in our trend model. The coin is currently trading right at the key $56 level, with support now found at $51 and $44, and further head between $74 and $75.


DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Dash has been showing encouraging stability following the August low and it managed to climb back up above $200 last week, the lack of bullish follow-through means that the move was likely just a counter-trend one. That said, with the dominant trendline now broken, should the coin hold up above $170, a trend change is still a possibility, but otherwise, the re-test of the lows near $130 is likely.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum Classic failed to show strength during last week’s rally, and the coin is trading very close to its almost 1-year low near $10 despite the segment-wide bounce. Traders and investors should avoid entering new positions here, since new lows are very likely in the coming weeks. Support below the lows is found between $9.30 and $9.40, and near $7.5, while resistance is ahead, near $11, in the $13-$13-50 zone and near $14.50.


XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monero has been showing relative strength after the panic low in August, and it managed to get close to its key long-term support/resistance zone near $150 this month. XMR is the only major besides Bitcoin on a neutral long-term signal in our trend model, but last week, it failed to rally above the $125 resistance while forming a lower swing high. The coin needs to stay above $100 to avoid a likely test of the lows and a downgrade in our model, with further support levels found at $108 and $80.


NEO/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO continues to be among the weakest majors, and the coin is now back on sell signals on both time-frames after failing to join last week’s rally in earnest. The coin is very likely to test the low near $13.75, even if a durable bottom is already formed in the segment, and traders and investors should still avoid new positions here. Short-term support is found near the current price level, while resistance zones are ahead near $22 and $24.50.


IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is also very weak on all time-frames even as the coin avoided a test of the August lows this month after the steep drop of the previous period. Now a move towards the $0.45-$0.48 zone seems very likely, with a possible test of the lows near $0.40. Traders and investors shouldn’t enter new positions here, with strong resistance ahead near $0.57 and $0.64.


EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS has been relatively weak since the August lows, despite the strong rally attempts, and now the coin looks ready to test the key $4.50 level again. The currency remained on a long-term sell signal even during last week’s rally and traders and investors should avoid it until a clear trend change. Below the August low near $4.2, key support is found at $3.5, with resistance zones ahead near $5.30 and between $6.50 and $7.20.


Stellar/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar followed ripple higher last week, but despite the relatively strong rally, the coin failed at the dominant declining trendline, and remained negative from a long-term perspective. Stellar is now testing the key zone near the $0.24 level, and a move below that would point to a test of the structurally crucial $0.1775-$0.195 zone. Key resistance levels are ahead at $0.265 and near $0.28 with the latter converging with the declining long-term trendline as well.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.