Connect with us

Market News

Likelihood of a U.S. Stock Market Correction Grows to 70%: Vanguard

Published

on

The likelihood of a large-scale correction in U.S. stocks is on the rise, according to researchers at Vanguard Group. While there is always risk of a correction on Wall Street, the risk is running much higher than normal following 12 months of record-setting gains.

Vanguard Forecasts Dark Clouds Ahead

Researchers at the asset manager say there is now a 70% chance that U.S. stocks enter correction, a technical term that refers to a 20% drop in prices from their most recent peak. Although Vanguard isn’t trying to scare investors, market participants need to be prepared for a potentially painful correction.

“It’s about having reasonable expectations,” Vanguard’s chief economist Joe Davis said, as quoted by CNBC. “Having a 10 percent negative return in the U.S. market in a calendar year has happened 40% of the time since 1960. That goes with the territory of being a stock investor.” He added, “It’s unreasonable to expect rates of returns, which exceeded our own bullish forecast from 2010, to continue.”

The asset manager recently told investors to lower their expectations over the next five years as the market cools from the post-election euphoria. Over that period, stock market returns should average roughly 4% to 6%. That’s the most tepid outlook for stocks in the post-crisis era.

At the same time, Vanguard expects international stock markets to outperform Wall Street. There are clear signs that portfolio managers have already taken notice of this trend, based on recent surveys of asset allocation. A synchronized global recovery and the slow removal of policy accommodation in key jurisdictions suggest it is blue skies ahead for international markets.

Vanguard manages roughly $5 trillion in assets across mutual funds, ETFs and retirement plans. As of 2016, it was the world’s second-largest asset manager behind BlackRock.

Hope Rally Continues

So far, Vanguard’s projection hasn’t shown any sign of materializing. U.S. stocks have been on an tear since Donald Trump secured the presidency in November 2016, as investors rallied behind the promise of a pro-growth agenda. The year-long rally has added more than 23% to the Dow, 18% to the S&P 500 and 28% to the Nasdaq Composite. All three Wall Street barometers have secured multiple record highs this year.

The Trump rally has slowed this month, with market participants evaluating the latest proposals to overhaul the tax code. The president is aiming to pass to new tax legislation before Christmas, giving his administration the leg up in a critical year that features mid-term elections.

Some analysts believe the Trump bull market may continue indefinitely over the next two years as the U.S. economy shows signs of progress and corporate earnings continue to recover. That being said, concerns of overvaluation risks loom large in investment circles.

The power of the Trump rally has been reflected in another important indicator used by Wall Street: the CBOE VIX. The so-called “investor fear index” has spent the better part of the year at half its historic average, including multiple stints at record lows. The VIX trades on a scale of 1-100, with 20 representing the historic mean.

Disclaimer: Writer is invested in U.S. equities at the time of writing. 

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 462 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




Feedback or Requests?

Market News

You Can Now Play Pokémon On The Blockchain

Published

on

A common trend in the past two years is adding “but with blockchain” to the end of any platform, business, or idea and having it result in instant hype. A good example of this occurred when Long Island Iced Tea changed their name to “Long Blockchain” and had their share prices soar 500%.

Whether there is a valid use case for adding blockchain technology to goods and services remains a valid question best evaluated on a case by case basis.

In the latest example of this trend, software engineer João Almeida created Poketoshi, which is a platform that lets you play Nintendo’s iconic game Pokémon via the Lightning Network.

The game is hosted Twitch and works just like the rest of Twitch’s ‘Twitch Plays Pokémon’ games. The games work by reading commands entered into the chat room by users. In Poketoshi, the commands are instead entered through a Lightning-enabled virtual controller.

Users enter a set of commands through the controller and have to pay 10 Satoshi per command through Lightning Network. The payments are made through OpenNode, which is a Lightning-enabled bitcoin payment processor for merchants.

The reason Poketoshi fits the above trend description so well is that the Lightning Network doesn’t make the user-experience of playing the game better whatsoever. The platform is just aimed at being a proof of concept for the utility of Lightning Network to enable fast and cheap transactions.

To recap for our readers, the Lightning Network is an additional layer that sits on top of a cryptocurrency’s blockchain to make the transactions faster and cheaper. While the technology is still in the testing phase, the early results are extremely promising.

The additional background for the Lightning Network is that there has been a long-standing rivalry between Lightning Network (who favor it as a solution to scaling bitcoin) and bitcoin cash (BCH) proponents.

Poketoshi users didn’t stop from taking digs at the Bitcoin hard fork during the gameplay itself either. Many users chose to name their in-game rival ‘BCASH,’ and shared screenshots on Twitter, in a humorous intersection of Pokemon trainer rivalry crossed with the actual rivalry between bitcoin and bitcoin cash.

This is also not the first time that a developer has created a fun way of testing the Lightning Network. Past examples include a Lightning-powered drawing board as well as a candy dispenser that lets users pay with via Lightning Network.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 8 rated posts




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Market News

Congresspeople Now Required To Disclose Crypto Holdings

Published

on

Secret HODLING by politicians is about to have its moment under the microscope.

According to a June 18 memo issued by the House Ethics Committee, U.S. House members were advised this week that they must now publicly reveal any digital token holdings worth more than $1,000.

Lawmakers are also now required to reveal any cryptocurrency sales or purchases that exceed $1,000 within 45 days of the transaction date.

The memo further stipulated that congresspeople should include such investments in their annual financial disclosure reports.

The timing of the memo is intriguing. For decades, congresspeople and their employees have been legally required to disclose assets like real estate and investment proceeds.

The enforcement of these rules got even stricter after the passage of a 2012 law requiring disclosure of stocks, bonds and derivatives trades by members of Congress or their family members.

The rise of cryptocurrencies, alongside questions over how and if they should be regulated, has generated a lot of uncertainty over how existing rules should apply to lawmakers’ purchases of Bitcoin and other crypto tokens.

In theory, it could expose hypocrisy by lawmakers that condemn cryptocurrency as a fraud or national security risk but profit off them in the shadows.

The release of the house memo means that the public will soon learn exactly which lawmakers are invested in crypto assets. This mandated reporting forces lawmakers who take strong stances either way on the regulation of crypto assets to literally put their money where their mouth is.

The memo also addressed whether members of Congress are allowed to make money through side gigs tied to cryptocurrencies.

The memo clarified that House rules going forward prohibit lawmakers from earnings of more than $28,050 a year from jobs unrelated to congressional duties will also apply to cryptocurrency mining.

This should, therefore, eliminate the temptation for lawmakers to use cryptocurrency to skirt the rules.

These rules coming out of the memos are likely a good thing for the blockchain industry as a whole going forward. This is due to to the fact that implementing universal standards for lawmakers will eliminate potential areas of corruption.

Since a huge focus of governments worldwide around crypto assets has been their potential for use in illicit or criminal activities, it would be tremendously embarrassing if politicians themselves were using cryptocurrency for these purposes.

That being said, for savvy lawmakers, it is probably relatively straightforward to hide the assets that they do have/had.

For instance, all one needs to avoid suspicion is a non-verified account on a decentralized exchange with a hardware wallet. In the view of this analyst, the odds of a lawmaker personally owning crypto assets while not being remotely technically inclined is near zero.

As a result, while the new standards are absolutely necessary going forward, I don’t know how much of an impact they will really have.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
1 vote, average: 4.00 out of 51 vote, average: 4.00 out of 51 vote, average: 4.00 out of 51 vote, average: 4.00 out of 51 vote, average: 4.00 out of 5 (1 votes, average: 4.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 8 rated posts




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Market News

As Crypto Markets Grind Lower, Institutional Adoption Continues to Grow

Published

on

Two of Russia’s largest banks have launched portfolios dedicated to trading bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, the local Kommersant newspaper reported Friday. The pilot projects are the latest examples of widening institutional acceptance of digital currencies in spite of the market’s recent correction.

Russian Banks to Offer Crypto Portfolios

Russians with bank accounts at Sberbank and Alfa Bank will soon be able to trade cryptocurrencies in a designated fund that will track price movements on some of the world’s largest exchanges. The portfolio, which is being overseen by the Bank of Russia, will include bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin.

Although the full list of assets has not been provided, the portfolio will be revised four times a year, with a trading algorithm balancing the holdings.

Sberbank is Russia’s largest financial institution, with the central bank owning 50% of its authorized capital. Alfa Bank is one of the country’s largest private banking institutions.

Although cryptocurrencies are largely unregulated in Russia, Justice Minister Alexander Konovalov recently confirmed that the asset class falls under the definition of “other property.” Two draft bills on cryptocurrency are still pending in the State Duma.

The Russian government had initially said it would ban cryptocurrencies as they could be use for money laundering and terrorist financing. As digital assets grew in popularity, government agencies took a decisive u-turn, with President Vladimir Putin even considering the launch of a state-backed cryptocurrency.

Institutions Preparing for Cryptocurrency Trade

Financial institutions from New York to London are planning to launch cryptocurrency trading operations in the not-too-distant future. An April survey by Thomson Reuters showed that one-in-five major banks are considering cryptocurrency trading in 2018, a sign that the niche industry is gaining mainstream acceptance.

Goldman Sachs has been gradually scaling its crypto operations in pursuit of a bitcoin trading operation that is expected to launch later this year. While Goldman won’t be trading bitcoin outright, it will serve in the capacity of market maker for bitcoin futures.

It has been argued that the first wave of institutional adoption of cryptocurrency was poorly timed given the market’s steep losses over the last two quarters. This has led to greater industry consolidation as major firms swept in to acquire cryptocurrency exchanges. Earlier this year, Monex Group announced it would acquire and rehabilitate Coincheck, a Japanese exchange that was hacked for $530 million. Goldman-backed Circle has also bought out Poloniex, one of the world’s largest digital exchanges.

In the realm of blockchain adoption, banks are pouring billions into new commercialization initiatives. According to a recent study by Greenwich Associates, blockchain budgets for major banks in 2017 swelled by 67% to $1.7 billion.

San Francisco startup Ripple has already brought on board hundreds of clients to test drive its blockchain-based payments and liquidity platforms. This includes big-name clients such as UBS, Standard Chartered and Santander.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 52 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5 (2 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 462 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

11 of 15 Seats Available

Learn more here.

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending