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Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven?

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This question keeps coming in crypto articles and communities and I’d like to lay it to bed once and for all.

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Safe haven assets are things that tend to go up in value when there is prevalent uncertainty or fear in the world. Gold, Bonds, and the Japanese Yen are all considered Safe Havens.

Bitcoin is not a safe haven asset and bears little or no correlation with other traditional markets at this time. The cryptocurrency markets are still too small to have any effect on other markets.

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The entire market cap of all cryptos is now about $100 Billion. To put it in perspective, the market cap of just the S&P 500 in the USA is standing at more than $20 Trillion.

So, the answer is no. Not in a traditional sense anyway. However, the practical use cases in specific countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Zimbabwe, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, and even Russia, that are seeing extreme currency risk proves that bitcoin is an excellent store of value.

So though it does not correlate at the moment, this is a form of digital gold.

-Mati Greenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of June 15th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The traditional markets went on a wild ride yesterday. There was a big swing down, then a big swing up only to wind up in the same place it started.

Though volatility spiked around the time of the Fed meeting, the VIX volatility index still closed at near record low levels.

As was widely expected by the markets, the Fed did indeed raise their interest rates by 0.25% despite stagnant inflation and wage growth.

The headlines that are saying that Fed has defied inflation but actually what’s happening is that they’re playing a huge game of chicken with the financial markets.

If the Fed blinks at this point or acknowledges that the economy isn’t doing well, it could set the already overvalued stock market for a tumble… and we wouldn’t want that.

What was more important yesterday was the Fed’s aggressive stance in offloading their bloated balance sheet. They have about $4.5 Trillion worth of assets that they purchased during the quantitative easing from 2009 to 2014 that they would like to start selling back to the market by the end of the year.

It’s a move intended to show confidence in the economy.

Greek Meeting Today

It’s the same old story that has been playing out since 2012. Greece currently has more debt than they could ever hope to pay back. They’ve already received two bailouts and they will need a third in order to avoid bankruptcy by next month.

The IMF wants to help but only if the EU is willing to write off some of the unsustainable debt that is choking the Greek economy. Germany is not willing to forget, or forgive and so we have a standoff.

The most likely outcome is that we see some sort of temporary deal to release enough funds to avoid another Euro crisis but a long term solution is still very far away.

Nonetheless, we will keep our eyes on the news as this story has massive market moving potential if anything changes.

Massive Crypto Correction

The cryptocurrency markets are currently seeing the biggest pullback in their short history.

Of the top 100 digital coins, only 3 are in green over the past 24 hours. The entire market has lost about $19 Billion from top to bottom.

Many traders in eToro are seeing this as a golden opportunity.

This remains the most high risk investment you could possibly take and it is possible we could see bitcoin around $1000 again before not too long. However, given the breakthrough in Japan and possibility of the same happening in India, there is a distinct possibility that over the next 24 hours we could see the lowest price that will be in the next 24 years.

Thanks for reading & have an amazing day!

This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Spikes on South Korean Volume

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Bitcoin cash (BCH) resumed its uptrend Friday following a sudden spike in South Korean trade volumes. Recent activity in the Asian country suggests that the bitcoin alternative could gain more exposure in the short term.

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BCH/USD Price Levels

The BCH/USD exchange rate surged above $1,750 on Thursady, where it was still some $800 shy of the all-time high. Prices would later consolidate below $1,700 as markets paced the gains. At press time, BCH/USD was up 6.6% at $1,662.

With the recent gain, bitcoin cash is worth a combined $28.4 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. That puts it third among active cryptos, behind online bitcoin and Ethereum.

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Thursday was bitcoin cash’s second major spike of the month, with more traders backing the alternative blockchain. After months of futility, BCH caught fire in mid-November after the backers of Segwit2x abandoned their planned hard fork. Following an initial spike, bitcoin (BTC/USD) declined sharply.

The complete opposite has occurred in recent weeks, with bitcoin cash tempering its advance and BTC adding thousands en route to multiple record highs. The original bitcoin was down more than $110 on Friday, but continued to trade well north of $8,000.

BCH has put up strong gains in recent weeks, a clear sign that the market has moved to a higher base. The cryptocurrency struggled to make a name for itself after it broke away from the original blockchain on Aug. 1. Based on the latest price action, BCH is making the case for a return to $2,000.

South Korea Factor

Trading activity in South Korea continues to be at the center of bitcoin cash’s rally. The Asian country has emerged as a major player in the global cryptocurrency market, with investors there showing a greater propensity to adopt altcoins.

On Thursday, the country’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) said it had “no plans” to monitor the cryptocurrency space because it believes the digital tokens do not represent real money.

“Though we are monitoring the practice of cryptocurrency trading, we don’t have plans right now to directly supervise exchanges,” said Choe Heung-sik, the agency’s chief. “Supervision will come only after the legal recognition of digital tokens as a legitimate currency.”

Positive vibes from South Korea may be partially responsible for the huge upswing in trading volumes tied to BCH. Trading volume in the cryptocurrency has risen above $4.1 billion in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap. That’s the highest level in nearly two weeks.

Bitcoin cash is also benefiting from Bitstamp’s decision to integrate the cryptocurrency next month “in response to the demand.”Bitstamp is the world’s twelfth largest digital currency exchange, according to Business Insider.

Separately, digital wallet provider Bitwala announced plans to integrate BCH into its platform, a clear sign that the token was gaining wider acceptance. The platform, which has more than 57,000 users, said it will now facilitate storage of BCH as well as money transfers. The team also said it is working hard to integrate mobile BCH wallets in the near term.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin and Ethereum on the Move as Rotation Continues

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The altcoin bull run continued today despite the US Thanksgiving holiday, as trading remained active in the majors, and another important break-out occurred, this time in Ethereum. Litecoin is also strong today, and the coin is testing the key $75 resistance level, as it follows in the track of ETH again. The currency still looks set to hit the next target at $82.50, with the all-time highs below just below the $100 level also in sight. While the long-term momentum is edging towards overbought territory, the coin remains bullish on both time-frames, with strong support still found at $64 and $56.

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LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum scored a new record high after moving past $400 for the first time in five months, and considering the lengthy consolidation before the move, more upside is likely for the second largest coin. With the long-term momentum still not being overbought, the token’s price might test the $500 mark in this leg higher, with Fibonacci targets ahead at $475 and $512. Support levels are found below $400 at 4380 and $350.

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ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is also attempting another bullish move, while Monero and Dash are consolidating just below their recent highs, while IOTA is in a short-term correction pattern as well. More and more altcoins are now in the latter phases of their rallies, just like Bitcoin, but traders still have opportunities with favorable risk-rewards ratios. Let’ see the short-term charts.

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Altcoins

Zcash Dip Offers Chance to Buy

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The ZEC/USD pair went into a downtrend for several days after hitting the 435 level in June. It shed more than half of its value before establishing strong support at 140. The market tried to reclaim resistance at 310 twice, but was sent back on both occasions. As a result, we have a massive reversal structure that might skyrocket the pair into a new all-time high.

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The market closed above 310 a couple of days ago on weak volume which is why it’s struggling to stay above that level. Technical indicators show that momentum is weakening, increasing the likelihood of a dip. A slight correction not only gives the market legs for its next move up, but it also offers you a chance to place orders.

They key indicator to watch for is volume. As long as volume remains sluggish, the market will most likely slide down to 280 first and then 262 next. That’s a good zone to accumulate positions. If volume suddenly spikes, at least 230k at Bitfinex, then we have a legitimate breakout that will take the market to 465.

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 Summary of Strategy

Buy: between 280 and 262 OR confirmed breakout with volume of at least 230k at Bitfinex

Support: 280, 262, and 243

Resistance: 310, 352, 400, and 412

Target: 465

Stop: If the market breaches 243

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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