ICO Analysis: True Flip
A casino, lottery, or other type of cryptocurrency gambling that is going to operate appropriately is often a good investment. It’s one of the first ways that people made millions in Bitcoin, was through gambling sites, dice and the like. Today we investigate TrueFlip, an “already-running lottery.”
Again, lotteries, gambling, dice, all these things are common in cryptocurency, and have been for years. Some have always allowed peopled to invest in the house, in hopes of making back some of the money they lose playing. The bottom line is that these things can make money, and TrueFlip should immediately be recognized for being in that category. These things can make money, and so therefore any situation where you can own part of the dividends is one where you will, over time, earn more than you invest.
In the case of iDice, one of the things that led us to believe it was a scam was their complete lack of transparency regarding who is operating the thing. They also have a rather weak excuse as to why their timer on the ICO just keeps restarting. In any case, the point we’re trying to make here is that such problems don’t exist with TrueFlip. Their team is front and center, ready to be reviewed, and will be later in this article.
The value of all sorts of gambling is obvious. For when people lose, which is often, the full amount of their loss goes to the gambling establishment. Marketing is a big cost for gambling establishments, and as such most have active referral programs that bring in new customers.
True Flip is a blockchain lottery platform. We have already developed a bitcoin-based and fair-proof lottery 6/49 (Powerball*) and plan to make at least 3 more lottery games.
Token holders will receive “daily rewards.” Tokens can be traded on the market. Apparently, token holders will also have some influence on the development of the lotteries themselves. The purpose of the token generation is to fund further development of the lottery platform. It’s all pretty straightforward. The real analysis is on whether such a platform will make money or not, and that is based on a lot of factors.
The True Flip Team
First and foremost, we must note that the True Flip team are boasting an association with Jon Matonis, who is often bedeviled for his sometimes overt position that Bitcoin not only should be regulated but will benefit from it. Nevertheless, he’s a man with a rather deep knowledge of Bitcoin economics, the crypto economy, and so forth. He’s also a house hold name among large scale institutional investment firms, so that’s important. Such associations play a key role in the safety of such an investment – if big firms get on board, then it appears safer for everyone else to do so, too.
A number of other cryptocurrency industry veterans are on the advisory board, including people from Cryptopay and the Blockchain Association of Canada.
The management team is mostly in Russia. Chief Operating Officer Nikita Parkhomenko has worked in several online ventures since 2010. He also currently serves as CEO of something called 7 Pikes, which is “a team of internet professionals with more than 10 years of networking background.” In charge of marketing, which is crucially important for any online gambling operation, is Konstantin Katsev. Katsev also currently works for a company called Minex.io. Minex is apparently a cryptocurrency investment service based out of England.
The rest of the team appear competent enough in their roles. Hacked was able to get confirmation from Jon Matonis that he is advising the project, which is a definite confidence booster in it.
Gambling On Gambling?
Gambling, when done correctly, is actually a pretty safe investment for the house. You have to have enough to guarantee the maximum bets that you allow, but beyond that, over a long period, if designed correctly, your games will bring you a small profit. With lotteries, the margin on this probably slightly increased. We can safely guess that, trusting the technical team at True Flip to do their jobs correctly, the True Flip project will be profitable over time. It may not be profitable at first, having to pay out winners, but in the long scale of things, if lottery and casino operators are patient, they’re usually profitable. Insolvent casinos are often pretty obvious in their tactics.
Gambling can be done in a provably fair way, meaning that it can be cryptographically proven that no extra advantage was given to the house. This is a radical shift in gambling, and certainly revives interest in it for those who believe it is a “tax on those who can’t do math.” As such, True Flip should be able to extract plenty of profit over time.
This investment earns investors a 10-15% proportional stake of all ticket sales made by TrueFlip.io in the future. It is a good way to earn some residual income. A token costs about 50,000 Satoshis and there will be a total of 21 million ever created. Of this, only 14.7 million are actually available for sale during the ICO event. The ICO began on June 28th. US citizens aren’t allowed to participate, apparently. Perhaps there is a workaround for that, but this author is as yet unaware of it.
As the author has stressed repeatedly, tokens like this which actually grant the owner access to some profit, or portion of profit, are the best kind to get your hands on. Residual income is a beautiful thing, ask any YouTube star or affiliate marketer. Let’s run some basic math before we give this thing a final rating, however.
Every dollar that the casino earns in ticket sales is to be split 21 million ways, as per this token. Now let’s break this down, and see how much in sales have to be done in order for you to make a profit on your token:
- Assume a 10,000 token (5BTC) investment.
- In order to double your money, it would seem that more than 50,000 BTC in tickets need to be sold, since you are holding .0001% of the total token supply.
- Profit can still be had by trading the token on exchanges. It would therefore be advisable to sell any time you were 120% and up on the exchange.
Now that we’ve figured out that actually doubling the value of your investment purely through revenues is going to be pretty difficult, we can figure out a reasonable rating for True Flip. All things considered, partnerships noted, and so forth, we are going to rate it 6.9 on a scale of 0 to 10. This is because there are more performative investment vehicles, but this one is also solid in that it is far more likely to return revenues to its investors than not.