ICO Analysis: Decent.bet
The concept of Decent.bet’s crowdsale is not overly complicated, so we won’t give an overly complicated explanation. In essence, they are selling 250,000,000 tokens which can later be exchanged for “house credits” on an exchange they will build. These house credits are locked for three months by the house which uses them, as the platform can be used by other casinos as well, and at the end of that period the user redeems the credits that were locked, plus profits, which they can then sell for DBET tokens, which can be traded for Ether and such.
Thus, if you’re betting on these tokens, you’re betting on their utility being potentially very lucrative. This would drive demand for the tokens. According to the whitepaper, 70% of the tokens generated will be the ones sold to the public. 30% in relation to the amount sold will be generated and distributed among the team. This is a bit higher than we like to see.
Also, the tokens distributed during the duration of the crowdsale will represent 70% of the total supply of coins. The remaining 30% will be minted at theend of the crowdsale and would be allocated as follows: 18% time-locked founder’s share –withdrawable after 1year. This incentivizes the Decent.bet team to develop the platform and remain motivated to grow token value at a steady rate. 10% held by thecontract that can only be used to establish the house. This initial deposit into the house will be accounted as a contribution by the founders entitling the founders to the resulting DBET house credits profit. 2% used for bounties –Bitcointalk signature campaigns, Social media campaigns, Blog posts, translations and more.
Decent.bet will be offering a full casino and a lottery, all provably-fair, decentralized, and blockchain-based. This will be a positive offering in the world of Bitcoin gambling, of course. Further, they will offer the ability for others to easily operate their own casinos based on the platform without necessarily directly crediting the Decent.bet team for the work. Which is fine – that’s the idea. If other teams with better marketing want to launch their own full casinos on the platform, that is fine with the Decent.bet team, because it still helps the platform and the token value grow.
Provably-fair gambling is really only just getting started. As cryptocurrencies have become more and more mainstream, more and more people will become interested in them who also are interested in traditional gambling. When you realize that the house is unable to cheat through the miracle of cryptography, and that you can gamble 24 hours a day, a lot of people flock to it. Gambling websites are some of the most popular Bitcoin destinations at present. At any given time, sites like PrimeDice or Stake have thousands of people on them.
The point is that, properly done, blockchain gambling can be an extremely profitable endeavor for the operator, and anyone who invests in them. That’s why we have to carefully consider the offering here.
Unfortunately, this author and analyst does not feel that we have enough to really evaluate. The author is not an advisor, he just analyzes what the ICOs offer and issues a rating based on his long experience as a cryptocurrency enthusiast and investor. The numerical rating on this ICO is going to be low at this point because:
1) we don’t know enough about the people who are operating the ICO, and therefore we have no reason not to believe they’ll simply exit scam.
2) there is a barrier to liquidity and exit, and also 3-month lock-ups for profit are significantly long in the cryptocurrency world. When pitted against every other ICO offering which could yield high returns, we have to rank this one lower.
Is there a chance they’re simply going to run off with the Ether raised? Of course there is! We don’t know an awful lot about the team to begin with. We have to be wary on these grounds, and deduct points based on such a rubric as: there have been other successful ICOs where the people behind it were unknown, but they’re few. We have to caution against anything anonymous, because there are so many options which are not. You could take the same money you might invest in this project and put it in something that Vitalik Buterin touches (OmiseGo, for instance), and probably make a profit. So why recommend things that we can’t be sure of?
Sure, we like the sound of this project.
Great In Theory
The advent of good gambling platforms, like DAO.Casino or even potentially this one, means a lot of money can be made by those who are savvy enough to invest in the right plays. We wish we could truly say this would be a safe one to dump some coinage into, but we can’t, at this point, fully recommend it. Perhaps a cautious, small amount of investment would be appropriate, once they release the details of what they want to charge for the tokens at the outset.
One thing that will have to happen for this to be a profitable endeavor for the token buyer is that exchanges will have to list the DBET ERC20 token right away. This would provide everyone a cushion to get out if they so choose. Without this, the thing is really dead in the water, because the actual liquidity of the token may be wildly different than people expect if they lock their tokens up in casinos before they’re actually able to know what the tokens are worth.
However, the idea that people might get involved just for the prospect of getting more tokens is absurd. In the end, if you’re investing, you want to be able to cash out to something that is good as gold, like Ether or Bitcoin, not more of an unknown token that you purchased solely to invest with.
Perhaps the token would be better if it could be directly invested, instead of exchanged for house tokens. That part is just another barrier to the realization of profit, it would seem, although the purpose appears to be to allow various houses to offer credits for sale to investors. These house credits are later returned with a profit – they are used to stake the house bets. Then, the investors are of course free to gamble in the houses they invest in, as well, which is an interesting prospect, because the odds of actually losing money are lessened when you get a piece of even your losses. So that’s an interesting aspect, but again, everything hinges on there being some exchange where you can trade with others for Ether once you have increased your holding of these tokens, or established it in the first place, for that matter.
We have to say that if you were to invest in this, the wise move would be to invest very little or post-ICO, once the token is on an exchange other than the one that allows you to trade for house credits.
The inherent risk here, for which we deduct 3 points off the top, is that the thing does not attract enough people to make any money, so investing in anything that buys you an investment in it is ultimately a waste.
If the marketing team and the rest are able to generate enough attraction, and enough growth happens around it, then the tokens will be valuable for staking various casinos. As such, given what we’ve seen with the DAO.Casino token:
Thus we can say that the amount you should invest really depends on the cost of the tokens, but we definitely want to be fair, so we lend 6 points for the potential that a variety of casinos to invest in presents.
As such, we come up with a numerical disposition of 3 for this ICO. We would urge caution in any investment here. Details on the ICO are forthcoming at their website.