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ICO Analysis: Change

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Change Bank CEO Kristjan Kangro opens the Change whitepaper with a note on the failure of the world’s oldest bank. One would think that would be the end of the missive – the oldest bank in the world has failed, banking itself has failed more than once, cryptocurrency is intended to make such situations impossible. While there are moral reasons to object to the invasive tentacles of the legacy banking establishment, from an investment perspective, it bears looking into. We’re decades away from cryptocurrency having entered the common lexicon such that on-boarding outfits like Coinbase, Monaco, or Change Bank won’t be necessary, and even then, it’s likely they’ll still find rent in the system somewhere.

For the author, the great thing about Change Bank is that they don’t take a lot of explaining. They intend to be a cryptocurrency bank, complete with fiat withdrawals and deposits as well as a debit card. Their focus is in the spending of monies and extracting fees from such activities. We should, nevertheless, briefly go over what they do have on offer, since it’s not a direct copy of any other project, but perhaps not as exciting as some might have first thought.

  • Will allow deposit of major cryptocurrencies and ERC20 tokens.
  • Pays a 0.05% dividend in network token for every purchase made with account.

Change began as a Fintech solution in Singapore, and now they officially consider themselves established in Singapore and Estonia, which is quickly pushing to become the crypto capital of the globe.

The rubber meets the road for Change in the revenue model. They rely on the establishment of Third Party Service Provider (TPSP) contracts relating to economic activity generated by Change Bank members.

Change Token

20% of what Change Bank members spend with such merchants is returned to the network, and from this, 83% is redistributed among token holders. The payments will apparently be made in Ethereum, to the Change Bank users account, on a monthly basis. This bit makes the author weary, since anytime there is a delay, there is an opportunity for malfeasance. Additionally, Change Bank itself is going to kickback 0.5% of its share of revenues from Mastercard proper, distributed over the entirety of the token holders. This could be a problem if a proper vesting schedule on any withheld-from-the-public coins is not established. They say that if 1 million users were to spend an average of $1000 per month through the Mastercard Debit card, then the annual revenue to token holders would be around $60 million.

The issue with Mastercard, of course, is their long history of flip-flopping on cryptocurrencies. There could be problems down the road that are unforseeable regarding this particular firm, but others seem to be working with them without problems.

Change will not force you to spend Change tokens when you’re shopping, but Change tokens will be used for any other transaction on the platform. This might not make much sense at first, but break the users of Change down into groups: token holders/investors and users. The users will have the least, if any, interaction with Change tokens. Their primary source of them will be in rebates, and their primary use of them will be exchanging for more currency to spend.

So who needs the Change tokens besides the Change platform?

Change Marketplace

The value of the Change token will actually be generated by the associated financial marketplace. Change identifies a core problem of banking conglomerates being that they bundle together inferior services, when instead they could offer the best services from the best providers, or leave it up to the market – which is the approach that Change is taking. Insurance providers, portfolio managers, the whole range of financial services will be able to integrate with Change Bank. They give an example of how this might work, with a supposed user having invested in a rental condo somewhere remote, and how this investment was done through a platform that integrated with the Change marketplace. We can see outfits like Liquid Asset Token wanting to integrate and provide access to Change Bank users, so we consider this open-ended marketplace of financial offerings to be a double-edged sword: on the one hand it has the potential to make a lot of money, on the other it sounds like a scammer’s paradise.

Nevertheless, even scammers would be forced to kick back to the network, and they would have to buy tokens in order to get started. As Change themselves say, their value is in re-bundling the best services from disparate sources – but not doing so directly. Instead, allow the service providers to have direct access to the clients who might benefit from them, and simply collect small fees on their take.

So more than anything, what Change has to do in order to succeed is get quick, massive adoption. A huge number of users makes the platform more attractive for the service providers who will, in the end, create the actual value for the token. Unfortunately, its only difference from Monaco is that it gives a smaller reward in tokens and has an extendable application programming interface. Its only difference from TenX is that its extendable API is probably extremely inferior to the Comit.network. We should think that integrating on top of Comit.network instead of re-building the wheel would be a smarter move, but we can’t tell people how to start their businesses. What we can do is suggest that while there will be a lot of hype around Change, just like all the others that attempt to bring crypto to the masses, in a broader scope we can already identify enough weaknesses to see that it may not stand the test of time by comparison.

At present, Change has only three partnerships for their financial marketplace: Smartly, the current operation of Change co-founder Artur Luhaäär; danabijak, a Singapore-based P2P lending company; and Bit of Property, an Estonian start-up that wants to facilitate real estate investments (similar in scope to LAToken or Propy). It would be much better if any of these were well-established firms, but none of them truly are. If we were going to get really excited, we’d have to see integration with at least one household name.

Change Distribution

We find here the problem with Change. Only 40% of the total token supply is entering the public domain.

The 200,000 ETH worth of Change coins issued in this initial sale covers 40% worth of all Change coins. 15% would be distributed out to the community over time as rewards for R&D and bounties. 10% is allocated to early investors & backers and future partnerships. 15% is reserved for the current team and most importantly, the future team members’ motivation packages. The final 20% will be held by Change, under scrutiny of the community, to reach future sustainability through network revenue distributions.

Change Bank itself is taking 35% of the tokens, and therefore all of the revenue sharing mentioned above is cut by that amount – these revenues actually go back to the bank.

Change Team

CEO Kristjan Kangro formerly was the CFO at Expara Financial, “Singapore’s pioneer and leader in venture capital, incubation, entrepreneurship, VC and innovation trainings, mentorship and advisory work.” He previously worked on a Dutch-Estonian appointments application called SwingBy as a business manager. His experience is limited, but as is the experience of most of the cryptosphere and the rest of the team.

We can attribute the scope of Kangro’s project to his youthful exuberance, we suppose, but we can’t get away from this point without noting that a very successful, established business leader has voiced support for Change. While we don’t normally take into account the words “big names,” we do have respect for those who’ve made it in the times before it was so incredibly easy to get into business and make money. Thus, the statement of former DHL CEO Roger Crook carries a bit of weight, as regards the team behind Change:

I’m backing this project because I think that it’s got an extremely good future. I mean, it’s the team behind it, Kristjan the founder, are exceptional people. They’re smart, they’re young, they’re energetic, they’ve been extremely well educated, and they’ve got so much drive, so much passion, to make this a success. I have no doubt that this business is going to thrive and grow global over the coming years. So for me it’s extremely exciting to be just a little part of it by backing it and supporting the team.

Well, Mr. Crook, the author wishes he could share in your lack of doubt, but we’ll take your word for it that the people are solid. Everyone has to start somewhere.

The team are also honest. According to a source from the Hacked community, their response to the question of what differentiates them from Monaco and TenX can be paraphrased as follows:

The main differentiator is the marketplace, we do agree TenX and Monaco have a head start – but that is not necessarily a good thing. It means they are poised to step over a lot of initial problems in the space- and have to exhaust resources to solve them and we can learn from some of their mistakes with regards to the card aspect. However with regards to the marketplace aspects, if they do want to head into this direction then they would be behind us. To be honest this is a large space and there will be enough for all of us.

All of these are fair points that we must consider. However, while their offering of a marketplace API will be more friendly to businesses actually getting started, the whitelabeling and other aspects of the Comit.Network should not be underestimated. However, just like they say in the above paraphrasing, there is plenty of meat to go around. It is a mistake to view the crypto space with a “Highlander”-like philosophy – there can certainly be more than one.

The Verdict

We find that we agree with Crypto Judgement’s assessment of Change as having “high credibility,” however do not stop reading here (see last bit of this article). We think they have designed an intriguing product and that they are more likely to deliver than not. We see the fundamental drag on their success being the arduous process of establishing partnerships and gathering marketplace participants in order to build the functional value of the token.

Risk

  • Service providers that would most benefit from the marketplace will have legal hurdles to get around, at least some, as regards existing contracts. This will be a complexity far greater than the team appear to recognize. We have to pick off 3 points for the hard slog of building the marketplace. Token value will not significantly increase until that marketplace is established, at least in terms of real value – speculation will be there. (-3)
  • A serious distribution problem. 35% left to their trusted hands? 60% total protected from market forces? -2
  • Change has a massive task in establishing its marketplace and user base. We see this as a bigger task than they probably do, which means the team may not be prepared. In terms of short-term effect on price, this is neutral. -0

Growth Potential

  • (Realism of concept and its effect on token value.) With massive caveats regarding their actual gathering of users and market participants, we say this thing is well-designed and can produce a lot of revenue for both token holders and Change itself. A goal of one million users in 2 years seems reasonable to expect, but the users will only increase once the marketplace is fully established and enticing. +4
  • On the advisory team, they have three people with wide-ranging connections that will help build the momentum and hype around the ICO: Roger Crook, Leslie Goh from Microsoft (who works as a financial services lead there), and David Moscowitz from Indorse. We think in terms of buying at ICO and selling at market, their involvement is going to produce favorable results. +3.5
  • One of the few ICOs where the company will actually share its revenue (although, as we found, not as much as it appears) with investors instead of expecting them to get their money from the market itself. Undeniably attractive to investors, and therefore another big plus. +1.5

Disposition

We can’t get higher than a 4/10 on Change at the moment, in terms of long-term performance, due to a few things we discovered in our investigation. For actual ICO acquisition and market performance, though, we can see results that will somewhat mirror the performance of Mona.co. Thus, on the short side we’re going to lend 2 extra points, in the belief that they will actually yield results for short traders, but probably be lackluster at best for long-term investors who want to collect dividend payments.

Investment Details

The ICO will begin at 5AM EST (US) on September 16th. The total contributed Ether will be 200,000, with a maximum of 50,000 collected during pre-sale at a rate of 650 Change Tokens (CAG) per Ether. Regular sale price will be 500 CAG per Ether contributed. They say they will deliver the tokens within a week after the sale closes, but also reserve the right to be late.

We foresee that the delivery of Change coins from the Smart Contract will occur one week after the sale has concluded, but we reserve the right to delay the delivery up to four weeks after the sale closed.

Interestingly, although they list one of the time/dates in Singaporean, they are not allowing investors from the US, Singapore, or Estonia. The ICO is being conducted by Lion Capital OÜ & Lion Capital Foundation OÜ, which is based in Estonia. This makes the ban on Estonian residents very, very confusing, and raises a bit of a red flag we can’t end the article without flying.

Be sure to take official directions on investing from https://change-bank.com/ico/ – do not send money anywhere without being sure it is the correct address for the smart contract. Do not let Fear Of Missing Out cost you capital.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsP. H. Madore has covered the cryptocurrency beat over the course of hundreds of articles for Hacked's sister site, CryptoCoinsNews, as well as some of her competitors. He is a major contributing developer to the Woodcoin project, and has made technical contributions on a number of other cryptocurrency projects. In spare time, he recently began a more personalized, weekly newsletter at http://ico.phm.link




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  1. dragosid

    September 7, 2017 at 7:08 pm

    Hey P.H, lots of respect for the quality reviews on the ICOs however with regards to an actual serious contender for Monaco & TenX I’d definitely suggest doing a review of Centra.tech (Disclaimer – I’m investing, but it took them a long time to finally convince me).
    In this short interview with their CEO it says it all, mostly why it has major advantages over Monaco, Tenx, Change, Ubiq etc etc etc neocashradio.com/blog/centra-card-interview-president-sam-sharma.
    Would love to hear your feedback/see a review. Keep up the good & objective work.

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Analysis

Ether Price Has a Good Chance of Rising Further

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On Wed July 18, Ether is falling, although the previously formed local uptrend still looks quite sustainable. The crypto is trading around $498, says Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex.

Today’s morning, Ether rose above $500, which helped to determine the next important resistance levels. The bullish trendline at $480 that was formed yesterday is now confirmed on H1, and in case Ether is able to go above $500 shortly, its chances for going further up will increase.

Once Ether continues rising, it will quickly reach $525, and the current support levels will go above, too. As of now, Ether has some potential to rise till $550, according to D1.

For now, the key support for Ether is at $480, and once the crypto heads up, a new support at $500 will get active. $525 is still key resistance for now. The MACD is going up on D1, still in the negatives, and is issuing a buy signal, while the Stochastic confirms it, being in the positive territory.

ether

Among fundamentals and events that are important for Ether traders, one can mention the addition of Bitcoin and Ether to Purple Group. The company believes its customers will now have more freedom in selecting payment methods for running their transactions.

Another important news item is that the brokers using MT4 began offering cryptocurrency trading (at first, only Bitcoin, but then other cryptos were added). In most cases, the clients can trade CFD’s, although some brokers allow direct cryptocurrency transactions, too. This is a very interesting opportunity, as the investors trust MT4 and consider it a secure platform, so crypto trading added to it will be trusted, too.

With more products added to the platform, both direct crypto trading and CFD’s, more people will come to MT4 in order to try it. This is positive for both Ether and other altcoins.

 

Disclaimer:

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 4 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, Dmitry went on to continue his education in post graduate. He then worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped him to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. Dmitry is a pro in the financial field who authors articles for various international media. He also holds the position of Chief Analyst at RoboForex.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Monero Bullish Reversal on the Horizon

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The cryptocurrency world has come to life today. Bitcoin is leading the way, up by over 10% in 24 hours as it surged past $7,000. Other coins such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) have followed suit, growing between 5% – 10% in 24 hours as well. Looking at this cast of cryptocurrencies, it seems that Monero (XMR/USD) investors are missing out on this rally.

Not to worry because usually a rising tide lifts all boats in financial markets. In this article, we reveal why a major bull run is likely on the horizon for XMR/USD.

Monero Weekly Chart Looks Promising

A quick look at the weekly chart of XMR/USD and you can easily spot the formation of a falling wedge. The recent bounce from $120 support has given investors a good reason to be excited. After all, the rally has put the market in a position to finally breakout out of the falling wedge.

Weekly Chart of XMR/USD

Monero appears ready to take out the resistance level. The daily chart gives us glimpses on how this breakout might transpire.

Daily Chart Shows Bullish Two Scenarios

Switch to the daily chart and you’ll also see the large falling wedge in play. On top of that, it offers two possibilities regarding how Monero can break out of this pattern and launch a bull run.

XMR Breaks Out on Fear of Missing Out

Bitcoin, being the most popular cryptocurrency, often acts as a barometer for other cryptos. Its strength or weakness can influence how other altcoins perform. Bitcoin’s recent trend reversal might make Monero investors greedy. The fear of being left out might just be enough to take out resistance of $160.


This scenario is viable as the daily MACD reveals a bullish divergence and a bullish cross. In addition, the 4-day, 8-day, and 21-day moving averages are not acting as immediate supports.

XMR Breaks Out on Increased Demand

A more sustainable breakout is one driven by demand rather than greed. In this scenario, Monero respects resistance of $160 as investors see the bounce as a sell rally. This starts a waterfall event that would push the market down to key support of $85.

At this price level, demand exceeds supply. Plus, the falling wedge would be at its narrowest point.

The daily RSI offers support in this scenario. It is currently forming a rising wedge, which is a bearish pattern. Even if XMR climbs to $160, the RSI would likely be overbought by then. That could catalyze the fall to $85 support.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s resurgence can influence how Monero moves in the coming days. Investors might become greedy and push the market above resistance of $160. On the other hand, investors may see the recent bounce as a sell rally. This can drive the market down to support of $85.

Either way, a breakout is on the horizon. A bullish reversal is likely not a question of if, but when.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 201 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Blows Through $7000 but Altcoins Still Lag Behind

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The relief rally in the cryptocurrency segment continued in earnest today, as Bitcoin still lead the way higher posting its best daily performance since April. The most valuable coin stole the show, although the whole market blasted higher, with the total value of the coins getting close to $300 billion, up by around 20% in a matter of days.

While the segment is still not out of the woods, BTC triggered a short-term buy signal in our trend model, as it overcame major resistance levels for the first time since May, finally showing some technical progress. That said, most of the majors are still stuck in, or right at the top of their trading ranges, and besides Bitcoin, buy signals are few and far between even considering the smaller coins, as correlations are still very high.

Trading volumes were also the highest in months, as especially Bitcoin triggered automatic orders while surging through several strong resistance levels. Bulls would still need further coins to join the break-out and fro now the long-term setup is still just little changed.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

BTC cleared the $6750, $7000, and $7350 levels in a bit more than an hour, and the epic short squeeze settled down near the latter resistance, for now. The coin is now on a short-term buy signal, and should a higher low form in the coming days, a new short-term uptrend could be established.

The coin needs to stay above the $7000 level to keep the signal intact, and given the relative weakness in Altcoins, the long-term outlook is still mixed. Resistance is now ahead between $7650 and $7800, while further support is at $6500.

Ethereum at $500 as Ripple Tests $0.51

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin is already above primary resistance, Ethereum is trading right at the $500 level, leaving the short-term trading range intact. The coin is close to triggering a buy signal, but it remains relatively weak and traders should wait for follow-through before playing a possible trend change. Primary support is still found at $450, with other levels at $420, $400, $380, and $360, while further resistance is ahead between $555 and $575.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With all of the majors registering large gains, and even some the recently weak coins like LTC, XRP, and Dash are trading near key resistance levels, further short-term buy signals could pop up in the segment, but until a confirmed new uptrend, traders should remain cautious with new positions.

As an example, Ripple is trading slightly above the $0.51 resistance currently, but a break-out is not yet confirmed, and the trading range remains dominant. Further resistance levels are ahead at 0.54 and $0.575, while support is now found at $0.49 and $0.45.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 293 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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