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ICO Analysis: Change

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Change Bank CEO Kristjan Kangro opens the Change whitepaper with a note on the failure of the world’s oldest bank. One would think that would be the end of the missive – the oldest bank in the world has failed, banking itself has failed more than once, cryptocurrency is intended to make such situations impossible. While there are moral reasons to object to the invasive tentacles of the legacy banking establishment, from an investment perspective, it bears looking into. We’re decades away from cryptocurrency having entered the common lexicon such that on-boarding outfits like Coinbase, Monaco, or Change Bank won’t be necessary, and even then, it’s likely they’ll still find rent in the system somewhere.

For the author, the great thing about Change Bank is that they don’t take a lot of explaining. They intend to be a cryptocurrency bank, complete with fiat withdrawals and deposits as well as a debit card. Their focus is in the spending of monies and extracting fees from such activities. We should, nevertheless, briefly go over what they do have on offer, since it’s not a direct copy of any other project, but perhaps not as exciting as some might have first thought.

  • Will allow deposit of major cryptocurrencies and ERC20 tokens.
  • Pays a 0.05% dividend in network token for every purchase made with account.

Change began as a Fintech solution in Singapore, and now they officially consider themselves established in Singapore and Estonia, which is quickly pushing to become the crypto capital of the globe.

The rubber meets the road for Change in the revenue model. They rely on the establishment of Third Party Service Provider (TPSP) contracts relating to economic activity generated by Change Bank members.

Change Token

20% of what Change Bank members spend with such merchants is returned to the network, and from this, 83% is redistributed among token holders. The payments will apparently be made in Ethereum, to the Change Bank users account, on a monthly basis. This bit makes the author weary, since anytime there is a delay, there is an opportunity for malfeasance. Additionally, Change Bank itself is going to kickback 0.5% of its share of revenues from Mastercard proper, distributed over the entirety of the token holders. This could be a problem if a proper vesting schedule on any withheld-from-the-public coins is not established. They say that if 1 million users were to spend an average of $1000 per month through the Mastercard Debit card, then the annual revenue to token holders would be around $60 million.

The issue with Mastercard, of course, is their long history of flip-flopping on cryptocurrencies. There could be problems down the road that are unforseeable regarding this particular firm, but others seem to be working with them without problems.

Change will not force you to spend Change tokens when you’re shopping, but Change tokens will be used for any other transaction on the platform. This might not make much sense at first, but break the users of Change down into groups: token holders/investors and users. The users will have the least, if any, interaction with Change tokens. Their primary source of them will be in rebates, and their primary use of them will be exchanging for more currency to spend.

So who needs the Change tokens besides the Change platform?

Change Marketplace

The value of the Change token will actually be generated by the associated financial marketplace. Change identifies a core problem of banking conglomerates being that they bundle together inferior services, when instead they could offer the best services from the best providers, or leave it up to the market – which is the approach that Change is taking. Insurance providers, portfolio managers, the whole range of financial services will be able to integrate with Change Bank. They give an example of how this might work, with a supposed user having invested in a rental condo somewhere remote, and how this investment was done through a platform that integrated with the Change marketplace. We can see outfits like Liquid Asset Token wanting to integrate and provide access to Change Bank users, so we consider this open-ended marketplace of financial offerings to be a double-edged sword: on the one hand it has the potential to make a lot of money, on the other it sounds like a scammer’s paradise.

Nevertheless, even scammers would be forced to kick back to the network, and they would have to buy tokens in order to get started. As Change themselves say, their value is in re-bundling the best services from disparate sources – but not doing so directly. Instead, allow the service providers to have direct access to the clients who might benefit from them, and simply collect small fees on their take.

So more than anything, what Change has to do in order to succeed is get quick, massive adoption. A huge number of users makes the platform more attractive for the service providers who will, in the end, create the actual value for the token. Unfortunately, its only difference from Monaco is that it gives a smaller reward in tokens and has an extendable application programming interface. Its only difference from TenX is that its extendable API is probably extremely inferior to the Comit.network. We should think that integrating on top of Comit.network instead of re-building the wheel would be a smarter move, but we can’t tell people how to start their businesses. What we can do is suggest that while there will be a lot of hype around Change, just like all the others that attempt to bring crypto to the masses, in a broader scope we can already identify enough weaknesses to see that it may not stand the test of time by comparison.

At present, Change has only three partnerships for their financial marketplace: Smartly, the current operation of Change co-founder Artur Luhaäär; danabijak, a Singapore-based P2P lending company; and Bit of Property, an Estonian start-up that wants to facilitate real estate investments (similar in scope to LAToken or Propy). It would be much better if any of these were well-established firms, but none of them truly are. If we were going to get really excited, we’d have to see integration with at least one household name.

Change Distribution

We find here the problem with Change. Only 40% of the total token supply is entering the public domain.

The 200,000 ETH worth of Change coins issued in this initial sale covers 40% worth of all Change coins. 15% would be distributed out to the community over time as rewards for R&D and bounties. 10% is allocated to early investors & backers and future partnerships. 15% is reserved for the current team and most importantly, the future team members’ motivation packages. The final 20% will be held by Change, under scrutiny of the community, to reach future sustainability through network revenue distributions.

Change Bank itself is taking 35% of the tokens, and therefore all of the revenue sharing mentioned above is cut by that amount – these revenues actually go back to the bank.

Change Team

CEO Kristjan Kangro formerly was the CFO at Expara Financial, “Singapore’s pioneer and leader in venture capital, incubation, entrepreneurship, VC and innovation trainings, mentorship and advisory work.” He previously worked on a Dutch-Estonian appointments application called SwingBy as a business manager. His experience is limited, but as is the experience of most of the cryptosphere and the rest of the team.

We can attribute the scope of Kangro’s project to his youthful exuberance, we suppose, but we can’t get away from this point without noting that a very successful, established business leader has voiced support for Change. While we don’t normally take into account the words “big names,” we do have respect for those who’ve made it in the times before it was so incredibly easy to get into business and make money. Thus, the statement of former DHL CEO Roger Crook carries a bit of weight, as regards the team behind Change:

I’m backing this project because I think that it’s got an extremely good future. I mean, it’s the team behind it, Kristjan the founder, are exceptional people. They’re smart, they’re young, they’re energetic, they’ve been extremely well educated, and they’ve got so much drive, so much passion, to make this a success. I have no doubt that this business is going to thrive and grow global over the coming years. So for me it’s extremely exciting to be just a little part of it by backing it and supporting the team.

Well, Mr. Crook, the author wishes he could share in your lack of doubt, but we’ll take your word for it that the people are solid. Everyone has to start somewhere.

The team are also honest. According to a source from the Hacked community, their response to the question of what differentiates them from Monaco and TenX can be paraphrased as follows:

The main differentiator is the marketplace, we do agree TenX and Monaco have a head start – but that is not necessarily a good thing. It means they are poised to step over a lot of initial problems in the space- and have to exhaust resources to solve them and we can learn from some of their mistakes with regards to the card aspect. However with regards to the marketplace aspects, if they do want to head into this direction then they would be behind us. To be honest this is a large space and there will be enough for all of us.

All of these are fair points that we must consider. However, while their offering of a marketplace API will be more friendly to businesses actually getting started, the whitelabeling and other aspects of the Comit.Network should not be underestimated. However, just like they say in the above paraphrasing, there is plenty of meat to go around. It is a mistake to view the crypto space with a “Highlander”-like philosophy – there can certainly be more than one.

The Verdict

We find that we agree with Crypto Judgement’s assessment of Change as having “high credibility,” however do not stop reading here (see last bit of this article). We think they have designed an intriguing product and that they are more likely to deliver than not. We see the fundamental drag on their success being the arduous process of establishing partnerships and gathering marketplace participants in order to build the functional value of the token.

Risk

  • Service providers that would most benefit from the marketplace will have legal hurdles to get around, at least some, as regards existing contracts. This will be a complexity far greater than the team appear to recognize. We have to pick off 3 points for the hard slog of building the marketplace. Token value will not significantly increase until that marketplace is established, at least in terms of real value – speculation will be there. (-3)
  • A serious distribution problem. 35% left to their trusted hands? 60% total protected from market forces? -2
  • Change has a massive task in establishing its marketplace and user base. We see this as a bigger task than they probably do, which means the team may not be prepared. In terms of short-term effect on price, this is neutral. -0

Growth Potential

  • (Realism of concept and its effect on token value.) With massive caveats regarding their actual gathering of users and market participants, we say this thing is well-designed and can produce a lot of revenue for both token holders and Change itself. A goal of one million users in 2 years seems reasonable to expect, but the users will only increase once the marketplace is fully established and enticing. +4
  • On the advisory team, they have three people with wide-ranging connections that will help build the momentum and hype around the ICO: Roger Crook, Leslie Goh from Microsoft (who works as a financial services lead there), and David Moscowitz from Indorse. We think in terms of buying at ICO and selling at market, their involvement is going to produce favorable results. +3.5
  • One of the few ICOs where the company will actually share its revenue (although, as we found, not as much as it appears) with investors instead of expecting them to get their money from the market itself. Undeniably attractive to investors, and therefore another big plus. +1.5

Disposition

We can’t get higher than a 4/10 on Change at the moment, in terms of long-term performance, due to a few things we discovered in our investigation. For actual ICO acquisition and market performance, though, we can see results that will somewhat mirror the performance of Mona.co. Thus, on the short side we’re going to lend 2 extra points, in the belief that they will actually yield results for short traders, but probably be lackluster at best for long-term investors who want to collect dividend payments.

Investment Details

The ICO will begin at 5AM EST (US) on September 16th. The total contributed Ether will be 200,000, with a maximum of 50,000 collected during pre-sale at a rate of 650 Change Tokens (CAG) per Ether. Regular sale price will be 500 CAG per Ether contributed. They say they will deliver the tokens within a week after the sale closes, but also reserve the right to be late.

We foresee that the delivery of Change coins from the Smart Contract will occur one week after the sale has concluded, but we reserve the right to delay the delivery up to four weeks after the sale closed.

Interestingly, although they list one of the time/dates in Singaporean, they are not allowing investors from the US, Singapore, or Estonia. The ICO is being conducted by Lion Capital OÜ & Lion Capital Foundation OÜ, which is based in Estonia. This makes the ban on Estonian residents very, very confusing, and raises a bit of a red flag we can’t end the article without flying.

Be sure to take official directions on investing from https://change-bank.com/ico/ – do not send money anywhere without being sure it is the correct address for the smart contract. Do not let Fear Of Missing Out cost you capital.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsP. H. Madore has covered the cryptocurrency beat over the course of hundreds of articles for Hacked's sister site, CryptoCoinsNews, as well as some of her competitors. He is a major contributing developer to the Woodcoin project, and has made technical contributions on a number of other cryptocurrency projects. In spare time, he recently began a more personalized, weekly newsletter at http://ico.phm.link




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  1. dragosid

    September 7, 2017 at 7:08 pm

    Hey P.H, lots of respect for the quality reviews on the ICOs however with regards to an actual serious contender for Monaco & TenX I’d definitely suggest doing a review of Centra.tech (Disclaimer – I’m investing, but it took them a long time to finally convince me).
    In this short interview with their CEO it says it all, mostly why it has major advantages over Monaco, Tenx, Change, Ubiq etc etc etc neocashradio.com/blog/centra-card-interview-president-sam-sharma.
    Would love to hear your feedback/see a review. Keep up the good & objective work.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Altcoin Season Is On The Horizon

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Altcoin season is a term used in social media and other online communities to describe the part of the market cycle where altcoins, such as Ethereum or Ripple, experience a meteoric rise in value against Bitcoin and the US Dollar. During this period, many altcoins enter a parabolic state that enables them to grow anywhere from 200% to 3000%. This was the case in the last alt season, which was from December 2017 to January 2018.

While this highly anticipated season can bring a lot of profits, it can also end in disaster to those who fail to correctly time the market. During the last season, many were slaughtered as they entered only after news of market explosions. Little did they know that they were already buying the top. Therefore, it is crucial to enter positions just before the season starts. The price movements in the last two months have given us reasons to believe that altcoins are preparing for a bull run.

In this article, we reveal why we believe that the altcoin season is on the horizon.

Altcoin Market Cap Appears to be Bottoming Out

The altcoin market cap is the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies minus Bitcoin’s market capitalization. We use this measure to track the amount of capital going in and out of all altcoins. The largest altcoin market cap ever recorded was at $554.916 billion in January 2018. Since then, the numbers have nosedived and even touched $78 billion in September. That’s an 85% devaluation.

The good news is $78 billion may have been the bottom as the entire altcoin market is working hard to generate a bullish higher low setup.

Altcoin market cap daily chart

A quick look at the daily chart reveals that the altcoin market chart is creating an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This structure is one of the most reliable patterns to indicate that the bottom is in. The higher low (right shoulder) tells us that participants are willing to buy at a higher price.

Bitcoin Dominance Looks Toppish

The Bitcoin dominance chart monitors the percentage of the cryptocurrency capital that can be attributed to Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance has been on the up and up ever since it bottomed out at 32% on January 12, 2018. It climbed as high as 58% on September 9, but it has been sputtering since. This is a very good sign for altcoins.

A look at the chart reveals that Bitcoin dominance is toppish. It is moving near the apex of a rising wedge. More importantly, it appears to have created a bearish lower high setup. As we always say, the lower high kills bullish momentum.

What does it mean for altcoins and the alt season?

First, this chart doesn’t necessarily show that Bitcoin’s capital is decreasing. On the contrary, Bitcoin’s market cap is in the process of creating a higher low, which means money is flowing into the market. So if Bitcoin’s capitalization is not decreasing, then it would mean that new capital is being injected into altcoins. To be more accurate, altcoins appear to be growing at a faster pace than Bitcoin at the moment.

This would explain the bullish higher low setup of the altcoin market cap. Significantly more money is coming than leaving. Investments are flooding in that it threatens to send Bitcoin dominance into a downtrend.

Bottom Closely Resembles 2014 Bear Market

Technical analysis is the study of historical price movement. This is one of the reasons why we keep going back to the 2014 bear market. We study it to see if participants are behaving the way they did back then. What we discovered was surprising.

2014 altcoin bear market

During the 2014 bear market, altcoin market capitalization suffered a 86% devaluation in 38 weeks before it established a bottom. In today’s bear market, the altcoin market cap plummeted 85% in 36 weeks. From the looks of it, the bottom was already established on the 36th weekly bar on September 10, 2018.

2018 altcoin bear market

These are astonishing resemblances in terms of percentage loss and bear market length. If the resemblance continues, as clues suggest, then the altcoin season may be around the corner.

Bottom Line

The altcoin season can be profitable to people who enter the markets right before the explosion. In our analysis, we showed the stabilizing altcoin market capitalization, weakening of Bitcoin dominance, and mirroring to the 2014 bear market. All these clues tell us that alt season is on the horizon.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.7 stars on average, based on 253 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Bulls Have the Potential to Capitalize, Following a Bullish Technical Set Up

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  • BCH/USD broke out and retested a long-running descending trend line, but has failed to capitalize on this further.
  • George Hotz, also known as Geohot, says “Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin.”
  • CoinText.io expands its Bitcoin Cash payment SMS service to Brazil and further European countries. 

“Bitcoin Cash is the Real Bitcoin”

George Hotz, also known as Geohot, an American entrepreneur and hacker, was recently commenting on Bitcoin Cash. Following the BCH Devcon in San Francisco he attended, Geohot demonstrated how to generate a BCH private key from scratch using python coding.

During his python video, George spoke highly of Bitcoin Cash. He said, “I’m using Bitcoin Cash because it’s the real bitcoin.” His reasoning for the preference of BCH over BTC was due to it having significantly lower transaction fees. Stating, “Transaction fees are super low on bitcoin cash.”

Bitcoin Cash Being Used in Brazil with CoinText.io

SMS cryptocurrency payment service, CoinText, has launched their services in Brazil and three other European countries – Poland, Romania and Croatia. CoinText doesn’t require apps, logins or Internet, and users can send Bitcoin Cash via SMS. A new wallet is automatically created when people have received Bitcoin Cash via SMS.

Specifically commenting on the Brazilian expansion, CoinText founder and CTO said, “Brazilians have been suffering from corruption and bad monetary policy,” says CoinText founder and CTO Vin Armani. “Cryptocurrency offers a way for them to peacefully opt out of a corrupt system.”

A move in which is further helping the adoption of Bitcoin Cash, via the CoinText service, he further noted, “Adding Poland, Croatia and Romania brings us closer to connecting the entire continent of Europe,” Armani added. “CoinText’s end-of-year goal is to enable all 740 million European residents to text money to each other’s phones for pennies.”

Technical Review – Daily Chart

BCH/USD daily chart

BCH/USD price action of late has been very much mundane following a promising breakout from a long-running descending trend line. It had been contained below and rejected on several occasions, from the back end of July. Bulls managed to pull off a decent breakout to the upside, which took place between 26-27th September.

After observing the break above, then pullback for a retest of the breached trend line, it looked very promising. This as such played out to the textbook, however bulls failed to capitalize and drive further north. Instead, the price remained within a consolidation nature, a lack of commitment in either direction. Perhaps the bulls are sitting on the launchpad, ready to send this into orbit, time will tell here.

Looking at technical areas of interest, to the upside, resistance has capped upside well into $500 territory. Tracking from $455-80, which has been evident the past few sessions. A firm push higher, will allow $550 region to come back into play. In terms of buyers, they can be found from the current price, all the way down to $400 the round figure.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 33 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Turn Lower After Choppy Weekend

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The major cryptocurrencies are slightly lower today in early trading, as Sunday’s modest rally faded away without major technical progress. Most of the coins are stuck in narrow trading ranges, and last week’s spike well above the current price levels, as buyers failed to take control of the market.

That said, we haven’t seen strong negative momentum either, and although the bearish long-term setups remain intact, there is no immediate danger of new bear market lows in the segment.

Patience is still the name of the game for crypto investors, since there is no evidence of a broader trend change that would justify a more constructive investment position. Our trend model is on sell signals across the board on both time frames, and the bearish pressures are still apparent on the charts, even considering the lengthy consolidation period. Given the negative long-term trends, odds still favor a test of the lows in most case, particularly in the light of the lack of bullish leadership.

IOTA/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While most of the majors are still above the lows hit just before the Tether-turmoil, there are several relatively weak coins that could lead the market lower in the coming weeks. Especially Ethereum, Liteocin, Dash, and EOS point a negative picture of the market, while Ripple and Bitcoin are still the most encouraging form a bullish standpoint, even as they also failed to signs of bullish momentum.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin is back near the $6400 level today, after drifting towards the $6500 resistance during yesterday’s rally,  but the coin is still well clear of the $6275 support level, trading clearly within last Monday’s range. Our trend model continues to be on a short-term sell signal, while the long-term picture is still neutral for the largest digital currency.

Traders and investors still shouldn’t enter positions here with further resistance levels ahead near $6750 and $7000 and with support levels below $6275 found near $6000, $5850 and between $5000 and $5100.

Altcoins Slightly Lower as Stellar Fails to Break Out

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple and Stellar have been showing some positive signs last week, but they both failed to make significant technical progress, confirming the segment-wide selling pressure. Ripple is threatening to move below the $0.42-$0.46 level, despite the rally above its triangle consolidation pattern, and a break below $0.42 would likely trigger a test of the $0.355 support.

For now, the short-term sell signal remains in place due to the lack of follow-through, and traders should be cautious with new positions. Strong resistance is still ahead at $0.51, $0.54, $0.57, while further, weak support is found near $0.375.

Stellar/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar is trading very close to the key long-term support zone near $0.24 that has been dominating trading for several weeks, and despite the rally attempts, the coin is still not out of its bear market. That said, should a broader trend change occur, Stellar would likely be among the leaders of renewed advance, but for now, traders and investors should still stay away from the coin.

The declining long-term trend is intact, with strong resistance levels ahead near $0.265 and $0.2835, while support levels are found near $0.235, $0.21, and $0.1935.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is still stuck in a very narrow range after the weekend, with the $200 support/resistance level still being in the center of attention. The bearish broader setup is unchanged in ETH’s market, with the coin still being relatively weak among the majors.

Traders and investors shouldn’t open new positions her, with further support found near $180, $170, and $160, and with strong resistance zones ahead near $235 and $260.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 380 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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