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ICO Analysis: Change

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Change Bank CEO Kristjan Kangro opens the Change whitepaper with a note on the failure of the world’s oldest bank. One would think that would be the end of the missive – the oldest bank in the world has failed, banking itself has failed more than once, cryptocurrency is intended to make such situations impossible. While there are moral reasons to object to the invasive tentacles of the legacy banking establishment, from an investment perspective, it bears looking into. We’re decades away from cryptocurrency having entered the common lexicon such that on-boarding outfits like Coinbase, Monaco, or Change Bank won’t be necessary, and even then, it’s likely they’ll still find rent in the system somewhere.

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For the author, the great thing about Change Bank is that they don’t take a lot of explaining. They intend to be a cryptocurrency bank, complete with fiat withdrawals and deposits as well as a debit card. Their focus is in the spending of monies and extracting fees from such activities. We should, nevertheless, briefly go over what they do have on offer, since it’s not a direct copy of any other project, but perhaps not as exciting as some might have first thought.

  • Will allow deposit of major cryptocurrencies and ERC20 tokens.
  • Pays a 0.05% dividend in network token for every purchase made with account.

Change began as a Fintech solution in Singapore, and now they officially consider themselves established in Singapore and Estonia, which is quickly pushing to become the crypto capital of the globe.

The rubber meets the road for Change in the revenue model. They rely on the establishment of Third Party Service Provider (TPSP) contracts relating to economic activity generated by Change Bank members.

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Change Token

20% of what Change Bank members spend with such merchants is returned to the network, and from this, 83% is redistributed among token holders. The payments will apparently be made in Ethereum, to the Change Bank users account, on a monthly basis. This bit makes the author weary, since anytime there is a delay, there is an opportunity for malfeasance. Additionally, Change Bank itself is going to kickback 0.5% of its share of revenues from Mastercard proper, distributed over the entirety of the token holders. This could be a problem if a proper vesting schedule on any withheld-from-the-public coins is not established. They say that if 1 million users were to spend an average of $1000 per month through the Mastercard Debit card, then the annual revenue to token holders would be around $60 million.

The issue with Mastercard, of course, is their long history of flip-flopping on cryptocurrencies. There could be problems down the road that are unforseeable regarding this particular firm, but others seem to be working with them without problems.

Change will not force you to spend Change tokens when you’re shopping, but Change tokens will be used for any other transaction on the platform. This might not make much sense at first, but break the users of Change down into groups: token holders/investors and users. The users will have the least, if any, interaction with Change tokens. Their primary source of them will be in rebates, and their primary use of them will be exchanging for more currency to spend.

So who needs the Change tokens besides the Change platform?

Change Marketplace

The value of the Change token will actually be generated by the associated financial marketplace. Change identifies a core problem of banking conglomerates being that they bundle together inferior services, when instead they could offer the best services from the best providers, or leave it up to the market – which is the approach that Change is taking. Insurance providers, portfolio managers, the whole range of financial services will be able to integrate with Change Bank. They give an example of how this might work, with a supposed user having invested in a rental condo somewhere remote, and how this investment was done through a platform that integrated with the Change marketplace. We can see outfits like Liquid Asset Token wanting to integrate and provide access to Change Bank users, so we consider this open-ended marketplace of financial offerings to be a double-edged sword: on the one hand it has the potential to make a lot of money, on the other it sounds like a scammer’s paradise.

Nevertheless, even scammers would be forced to kick back to the network, and they would have to buy tokens in order to get started. As Change themselves say, their value is in re-bundling the best services from disparate sources – but not doing so directly. Instead, allow the service providers to have direct access to the clients who might benefit from them, and simply collect small fees on their take.

So more than anything, what Change has to do in order to succeed is get quick, massive adoption. A huge number of users makes the platform more attractive for the service providers who will, in the end, create the actual value for the token. Unfortunately, its only difference from Monaco is that it gives a smaller reward in tokens and has an extendable application programming interface. Its only difference from TenX is that its extendable API is probably extremely inferior to the Comit.network. We should think that integrating on top of Comit.network instead of re-building the wheel would be a smarter move, but we can’t tell people how to start their businesses. What we can do is suggest that while there will be a lot of hype around Change, just like all the others that attempt to bring crypto to the masses, in a broader scope we can already identify enough weaknesses to see that it may not stand the test of time by comparison.

At present, Change has only three partnerships for their financial marketplace: Smartly, the current operation of Change co-founder Artur Luhaäär; danabijak, a Singapore-based P2P lending company; and Bit of Property, an Estonian start-up that wants to facilitate real estate investments (similar in scope to LAToken or Propy). It would be much better if any of these were well-established firms, but none of them truly are. If we were going to get really excited, we’d have to see integration with at least one household name.

Change Distribution

We find here the problem with Change. Only 40% of the total token supply is entering the public domain.

The 200,000 ETH worth of Change coins issued in this initial sale covers 40% worth of all Change coins. 15% would be distributed out to the community over time as rewards for R&D and bounties. 10% is allocated to early investors & backers and future partnerships. 15% is reserved for the current team and most importantly, the future team members’ motivation packages. The final 20% will be held by Change, under scrutiny of the community, to reach future sustainability through network revenue distributions.

Change Bank itself is taking 35% of the tokens, and therefore all of the revenue sharing mentioned above is cut by that amount – these revenues actually go back to the bank.

Change Team

CEO Kristjan Kangro formerly was the CFO at Expara Financial, “Singapore’s pioneer and leader in venture capital, incubation, entrepreneurship, VC and innovation trainings, mentorship and advisory work.” He previously worked on a Dutch-Estonian appointments application called SwingBy as a business manager. His experience is limited, but as is the experience of most of the cryptosphere and the rest of the team.

We can attribute the scope of Kangro’s project to his youthful exuberance, we suppose, but we can’t get away from this point without noting that a very successful, established business leader has voiced support for Change. While we don’t normally take into account the words “big names,” we do have respect for those who’ve made it in the times before it was so incredibly easy to get into business and make money. Thus, the statement of former DHL CEO Roger Crook carries a bit of weight, as regards the team behind Change:

I’m backing this project because I think that it’s got an extremely good future. I mean, it’s the team behind it, Kristjan the founder, are exceptional people. They’re smart, they’re young, they’re energetic, they’ve been extremely well educated, and they’ve got so much drive, so much passion, to make this a success. I have no doubt that this business is going to thrive and grow global over the coming years. So for me it’s extremely exciting to be just a little part of it by backing it and supporting the team.

Well, Mr. Crook, the author wishes he could share in your lack of doubt, but we’ll take your word for it that the people are solid. Everyone has to start somewhere.

The team are also honest. According to a source from the Hacked community, their response to the question of what differentiates them from Monaco and TenX can be paraphrased as follows:

The main differentiator is the marketplace, we do agree TenX and Monaco have a head start – but that is not necessarily a good thing. It means they are poised to step over a lot of initial problems in the space- and have to exhaust resources to solve them and we can learn from some of their mistakes with regards to the card aspect. However with regards to the marketplace aspects, if they do want to head into this direction then they would be behind us. To be honest this is a large space and there will be enough for all of us.

All of these are fair points that we must consider. However, while their offering of a marketplace API will be more friendly to businesses actually getting started, the whitelabeling and other aspects of the Comit.Network should not be underestimated. However, just like they say in the above paraphrasing, there is plenty of meat to go around. It is a mistake to view the crypto space with a “Highlander”-like philosophy – there can certainly be more than one.

The Verdict

We find that we agree with Crypto Judgement’s assessment of Change as having “high credibility,” however do not stop reading here (see last bit of this article). We think they have designed an intriguing product and that they are more likely to deliver than not. We see the fundamental drag on their success being the arduous process of establishing partnerships and gathering marketplace participants in order to build the functional value of the token.

Risk

  • Service providers that would most benefit from the marketplace will have legal hurdles to get around, at least some, as regards existing contracts. This will be a complexity far greater than the team appear to recognize. We have to pick off 3 points for the hard slog of building the marketplace. Token value will not significantly increase until that marketplace is established, at least in terms of real value – speculation will be there. (-3)
  • A serious distribution problem. 35% left to their trusted hands? 60% total protected from market forces? -2
  • Change has a massive task in establishing its marketplace and user base. We see this as a bigger task than they probably do, which means the team may not be prepared. In terms of short-term effect on price, this is neutral. -0

Growth Potential

  • (Realism of concept and its effect on token value.) With massive caveats regarding their actual gathering of users and market participants, we say this thing is well-designed and can produce a lot of revenue for both token holders and Change itself. A goal of one million users in 2 years seems reasonable to expect, but the users will only increase once the marketplace is fully established and enticing. +4
  • On the advisory team, they have three people with wide-ranging connections that will help build the momentum and hype around the ICO: Roger Crook, Leslie Goh from Microsoft (who works as a financial services lead there), and David Moscowitz from Indorse. We think in terms of buying at ICO and selling at market, their involvement is going to produce favorable results. +3.5
  • One of the few ICOs where the company will actually share its revenue (although, as we found, not as much as it appears) with investors instead of expecting them to get their money from the market itself. Undeniably attractive to investors, and therefore another big plus. +1.5

Disposition

We can’t get higher than a 4/10 on Change at the moment, in terms of long-term performance, due to a few things we discovered in our investigation. For actual ICO acquisition and market performance, though, we can see results that will somewhat mirror the performance of Mona.co. Thus, on the short side we’re going to lend 2 extra points, in the belief that they will actually yield results for short traders, but probably be lackluster at best for long-term investors who want to collect dividend payments.

Investment Details

The ICO will begin at 5AM EST (US) on September 16th. The total contributed Ether will be 200,000, with a maximum of 50,000 collected during pre-sale at a rate of 650 Change Tokens (CAG) per Ether. Regular sale price will be 500 CAG per Ether contributed. They say they will deliver the tokens within a week after the sale closes, but also reserve the right to be late.

We foresee that the delivery of Change coins from the Smart Contract will occur one week after the sale has concluded, but we reserve the right to delay the delivery up to four weeks after the sale closed.

Interestingly, although they list one of the time/dates in Singaporean, they are not allowing investors from the US, Singapore, or Estonia. The ICO is being conducted by Lion Capital OÜ & Lion Capital Foundation OÜ, which is based in Estonia. This makes the ban on Estonian residents very, very confusing, and raises a bit of a red flag we can’t end the article without flying.

Be sure to take official directions on investing from https://change-bank.com/ico/ – do not send money anywhere without being sure it is the correct address for the smart contract. Do not let Fear Of Missing Out cost you capital.

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



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1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. dragosid

    September 7, 2017 at 7:08 pm

    Hey P.H, lots of respect for the quality reviews on the ICOs however with regards to an actual serious contender for Monaco & TenX I’d definitely suggest doing a review of Centra.tech (Disclaimer – I’m investing, but it took them a long time to finally convince me).
    In this short interview with their CEO it says it all, mostly why it has major advantages over Monaco, Tenx, Change, Ubiq etc etc etc neocashradio.com/blog/centra-card-interview-president-sam-sharma.
    Would love to hear your feedback/see a review. Keep up the good & objective work.

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Analysis

Bitcoin’s Record-Breaking Rally Continues as Prices Cross $8,100

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Bitcoin surged to new highs on Sunday, as the world’s largest crypto by market cap continued to generate bids following the cancellation of Segwit2x.

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BTC/USD Price Levels

The value of a single bitcoin reached a daily high of $8,110.59, its best level on record. At press time, BTC/USD was valued at around $8,002 for a gain of 4%.

With the gain, bitcoin’s market cap now exceeds $133 billion. That’s roughly $100 billion greater than Ethereum, the market’s second most valuable cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin has added more than $1,100 over the past five sessions. It was down around $5,600 just one week ago.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), a digital currency alternative that broke away from the original blockchain Aug. 1, was down 5.1% at $1,185. BTC and BCH locked horns earlier this month after the Segwit2x hard fork was abandoned.

$10,000 and Beyond?

Institutional clearing platform LedgerX has initiated its first long-term bitcoin futures option, which is set to expire Dec. 28, 2018. In setting up the option, LedgerX is assuming a price of $10,000 at the time of expiration. That’s a 25% premium on current levels.

Investors who buy the option are essentially saying they believe prices will exceed $10,000 by the time of expiration.

Bitcoin is being helped by growing institutional demand for the digital currency, as hedge funds, day traders and other mainstream investment outfits look to access this burgeoning asset class. CBOE and CME Group have each announced plans to integrate bitcoin into more conventional investment vehicles in the coming months.

The rush of institutional money into bitcoin is a sure sign that the digital asset class is becoming too big to ignore. The value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation has already exceeded $230 billion, with more than a dozen coins valued at $1 billion or more. Nine others have a market cap of $500 million or greater.

Coinbase Responds

The rise of institutional capital has also compelled Coinbase to introduce a custodial service targeted at account holders with more than $10 million in assets. This service targets hedge funds and other institutions that have remained largely on the sidelines of the crypto revolution.

In a recent blog post, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced that the new service will launch sometime next year.

“When we speak with these institutions, they tell us that the number one thing preventing them from getting started is the existence of a digital asset custodian that they can trust to store client funds securely,” Armstrong wrote.

In addition to maintaining the minimum $10 million asset requirement, institutions must pay a $100,000 setup fee to gain access tot he Custodial program. In response, institutional investors will receive assurance that their assets are secure.

The Coinbase Custody website lists broad support for bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC), as well as ERC20 tokens. The ERC20 protocol has emerged as the favorite for startups launching initial coin offerings (ICOs), a controversial crowdfunding model that has already overtaken early stage venture capital.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

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Cryptocurrencies

Is Ethereum Ready to Play Catch Up With Bitcoin?

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In mid-June of this year, the difference between the market capitalization of bitcoin and Ethereum had narrowed down to less than $8 billion. This had many market participants excited. They expected Ethereum to dethrone bitcoin as the leader, a move popularly termed as flippening.

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Key observations

  1. Ethereum has hugely underperformed bitcoin
  2. The chart pattern suggests that Ethereum is likely to play catch up in the next few months
  3. Stay on the long side of Ethereum to benefit from the bullish setup

However, fast forward five months and the difference in the market capitalization of the top two cryptocurrencies has increased to about $96 billion. This shows that while bitcoin has raced ahead in the past few months, Ethereum has hugely lagged behind.

However, is the underperformance about to end?

The chart pattern shows that Ethereum is likely to embark on a rally of its own that can carry it to $645 to $670 levels in the next few months. Let’s see how we arrived at these levels.

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Ethereum opened trading at $8.16 on January 1, 2017. It started its rally in March and by June 12, it reached a high of $420, an astronomical rally of about 5047%. Thereafter, it entered a period of consolidation, digesting the gains.

On the charts, Ethereum has formed a large symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The breakout is generally in the direction of the long-term trend, or the trend that was prevailing before the pattern formed. In this case, the sharp move from January to June confirms that the cryptocurrency was in an uptrend before forming the triangle.

However, this is not a fool proof trade because sometimes the symmetrical triangle acts as a reversal pattern. Therefore, the best way to play this trade is to wait for a breakout of the triangle before initiating any trade.

Where can we take an entry?

Currently, the resistance line of the triangle is at about $378 levels, a level close to today’s intraday highs. The bears are likely to strongly defend this level. However, if the bulls breakout of $378 and manage to close above the resistance line, the trade on the long side will set up.

Different traders use different methods to confirm whether the breakout is valid or not. Some wait until price moves 3% above the breakout level, others wait for three consecutive closes above the resistance level.

However, we have observed that the best breakouts never look back, hence, waiting for three days may lead to a missed opportunity. Therefore, we can wait for a closing above the resistance line of the triangle and initiate the long positions on the following day.

The breakout can face resistance at $400 and $420. However, we expect the virtual currency to scale both these resistances and rally towards its pattern target zone of $645 to $670.

Notwithstanding, even the most reliable patterns can fail. Therefore, our stop loss will be kept at $340. We don’t want to hang on to the trade if it falls back into the triangle. We shall raise our stops to breakeven as soon as Ethereum breaks out to new lifetime highs. From thereon, we shall trail the stops higher to protect our paper profits.

Note

The chart pattern suggests a resumption of the long-term uptrend in Ethereum. However, this will not get confirmed until the cryptocurrency breaks out and sustains above $380. Therefore, please initiate positions only on a breakout and close above the triangle. Entering presumptive trades may result in losses.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Flirts with $8000 as Altcoin Bull Persists

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Bitcoin’s swift recovery was the main topic of the week, as the most valuable coin not just regained its steep losses, but hit a marginal new high towards the end of the period. The entire segment is experiencing capital inflows as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever after finally leaving the vicinity of the $200 billion mark.

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BTC breached the $8000 level before turning slightly lower on Friday, but despite the severely overbought daily chart, it is still trading near its all-time highs. As the long-term picture still suggests a deeper correction, investors should wait with opening new positions and traders should also control position sizes here. Key support levels are found at $7700, $7000, and $6700, while the recent key break-out level at $5000 still hasn’t been re-tested.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Dash is still the most bullish altcoin from a technical standpoint, despite this week’s short-term correction, as the coin is trading above its prior all-time high, and this weekend, it looks ready to test the break-out high near $500. Support levels are still found at $400, $360, and $330, and as the long-term picture is approaching overbought territory, investors should only hold on to their positions here.

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other major altcoins are also mostly in bullish setups, with some of them already in the latter stages of this cycle, like Monero and IOTA, but elsewhere in the segment, there are still opportunities for both traders and investors. Let’s see the detailed long-term view.

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