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ICO Analysis: bitJob

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As we said in our analysis of Wolk yesterday, the mantra of disruption is to disrupt and dis-intermediate. We can’t stress enough how important the last point is, and yet we fear that many ICOs are missing it, forcing themselves into an intermediary or middleman role that will simply be flipped upside down on the next wave of disruption. The bitJob ICO is going live not long from time of writing, so we must be quick to get to the heart of it and see if it’s a basket for our eggs or not.

bitJob Overview

Freelance marketplaces are a thing that are ripe for disruption. Fiverr.com, for instance, takes 20% of the revenues that workers earn. Blockchain technologies can drastically reduce costs, and decentralized services can make them more viable. As such, anything which presents itself as a crypto version of Fiverr or Freelancer.com or Upwork or any of them is bound to pique the author’s interest.

In bitJob, the technology’s disposition appears important to the designers. They intend for clients – as in, the people who would be hiring people – to use a centralized server run by them. On the other end, they want a decentralized to be available for everyone using the platform. They believe that maintaining a more standardized, centralized infrastructure at the outset will improve adoption, and on this point they may be right. It’s no secret that many people like to use web wallets despite the risks. The same will be true of decentralized applications – people will prefer the easiest route forward, even if it means using something centralized to eventually transition to something not.

It is very simple: a student looking to provide services online connects to the marketplace, chooses from a list of professionals jobs for relevant work, provides quality delivery, and receives immediate payment of his choice, in cryptocurrency or fiat money.

bitJob addresses a criticism which says that there are no obvious benefits to them using a blockchain, pointing out that the lower cost of moving money on a decentralized ledger is far lower, among other things, like the fact that building a decentralized, blockchain-integrated platform early is better than playing catch-up when it becomes the norm. This is all sensible, but in general, we get the feeling that we’re being distracted from the fundamentals. How exactly do you intend to make money?

We built a fantastic affiliate program tht will strengthen the relationship between bitJob and the students: students’ unions will receive a commission from each transaction their students engage in. We have launched pilot agreements with leading student associations in Israel, in addition to a number of employers who were more than happy to participate. We are also negotiating with several leading job search engines to ensure a continuous flow of quality jobs.

We see. Layers of intermediation. One problem from the top is that these affiliate fees are compensated somehow, we will have a look at the confusing chart in a moment, and some students may be wise enough to view this as an unnecessary expense. Students are free to use the existing centralized marketplaces, after all. The real challenge for any platform which wants to enable freelancers to find clients is that it have enough of said clients. Despite the fact that Fiverr takes 20% of people’s earnings, it’s still likely the best option for many providers, by virtue of the fact that their odds of getting paying customers is much higher. The same is true of Freelancer, and Upwork. A great way to thwart all this is to, as much as possible, be friendly to the idea that clients should be able to use whichever platform has what they need. This is to say that probably the real masterful technology in this space will be one that enables both providers and clients to freely navigate between the various middlemen, and then the thing that would obsolete that would be something which allowed the two parties to directly communicate without any intermediation at all. (Something like OpenBazaar, perhaps?)

bitJob also points out that lower transaction costs mean that people in depressed regions of the world will be able to participate, as both providers and clients. While individually their revenues may be small, collectively the size of that market is functionally unknown until someone like bitJob actually does reach it in an all-encompassing way.

There is no need for bitJob to spend money on hardware, infrastructure, or tech staff. Platforms like Ethereum offer such infrastructure, which has minimal cost only when used. Any new technological advances within the Ethereum community will be available to the platform as soon as they are created. It would be impossible for a business that facilitates freelance jobs to simultaneously invent systems that can be competitive in the global market. Due to the competitive nature of technology in global markets, it is very likely that a new platform similar to Ethereum will someday appear — offering new abilities, gaining market share, and offering competitive pricing — thus creating an environment conducive to experimentation and to inexpensive operation.

This part seems a bit ridiculous. No tech staff? What if something goes wrong in the client system? Who fixes it when it breaks? And therefore, what is the money for? Just build it once and run it forever? We reject this notion off-hand. In terms of our points, this disposition against actually building a product is expensive for bitJob.

bitJob Token

bitJob describes its acceptance of a variety of currencies as a good thing, but for the token holder, it makes the proposition sort of a non-starter. Their justification for the creation of the token is rather weak, perhaps the only valid or acceptable argument in that section of their whitepaper is that branding their own token gives people some incentive to be in some sort of exclusive network, and that it gives them help in approaching student unions and other affiliates. As we said before, we’re most interested in platforms which have foreseen the future disruptions they may themselves face, and we’re not noticing an awareness of that here at all.

A total of 128 million tokens are going up for sale today at a rate of 0.0011261261Eth each, with a tiered bonus structure related to the number of tokens sold, as shown below:

bitJob Flaw

The justification for the token goes like this: in the future, decentralized applications and blockchains are going to be commonplace, so we should be prepared for that. While this is true, it does mean that if you are not going to provide some forced inherent value for your token (such as a limited supply complimented with a specific purpose that no other token can perform, to put it in very few words), and therefore can’t float a good demand proposition for said token, it’s hard to see why investors should throw Ether at it.

bitJob Team

What they lack in experience, they make up for in numbers. bitJob has a fairly large team to compensate. We must stress that our problems with bitJob are not in the implementation of the business strategy itself, but in the way that the token is assigned insufficient importance to really drum up demand. This is to say, we’re going to give them the team points, at least. The four co-founders are Dror Medalion, Bogdan Fiedur, Aviad Gindi, and Elad Kofman. Two have experience in blockchain development, one has spent most of his career building affiliate systems (intermediaries between customer and producer), and one is a currently active mutual fund manager. Collectively, they appear to be in the right positions.

As we noted earlier, the company has no intention of building a staff to maintain the software going forward. Perhaps their intent is to hire out the work through the platform? There’s a thought, but we don’t get that impression in our overview. Nevertheless, hype is a powerful force, and we note that with the current buzz around cryptocurrencies, it’s highly likely that student association and individual student interest will increase the talent pool sufficiently. The rubber hits the road when companies actually begin to use the service – bitJob may casually allude to partnerships with companies that are eager, but none of these are listed on the website, nor in the whitepaper. We certainly believe that companies can make use of a service which enables part-time jobs and micro-transactions, but we need a bit more proof than that.

The Verdict

We think the only play is a short play with this token, because on the long-scale, unless they force the use of the token in the system, and only focus on making it easy for the students to get to fiat cash, preference for the token will be hard to develop, and demand for it is what makes it actually valuable. Students may find themselves getting paid an increasingly worthless token, and just choose the fiat option where available. Commitment to the system seems hard to develop when it’s as trivial to go elsewhere. All of this is bad news for anyone aiming to hold this token long-term.

Risk

  • See directly above, we think it elucidates a deduction of 5.75 (possible 6) points.

Growth Potential

  • We think they gathered the right people, which is important, this model allows up to 4 points for that.
  • We think their marketing is strong, and that marketing is the primary measuring stick for these types of marketplaces. We give 3 points on these grounds.
  • For short-term traders, our primary focus here, we think the bonus structure may provide enough arbitrage for an early exit, but wouldn’t hold our breath on this one. +2
  • We do see student participation actually happening, and we applaud them laying the groundwork to get partnerships with student associations in place. As mentioned in the main body of this article, we fear that the several layers of mediation may fatigue actual providers and even clients. +1.5

Disposition

We’re not overly excited about bitJob. We arrive at a 4.75, with the caveat that short traders who are flexible enough should be able to take a small profit, if they’re interested, but there’s a hazard of a total drop-off that would make this difficult. At a base token price of over .001 (no matter the bonus structure), we see a potential immediate depression with little hope of recovery. Fair warning is considered served.

Investment Details

The sale opens in a few hours, and information about on how to contribute is copiously available at https://stu.bitjob.io/.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsP. H. Madore has covered the cryptocurrency beat over the course of hundreds of articles for Hacked's sister site, CryptoCoinsNews, as well as some of her competitors. He is a major contributing developer to the Woodcoin project, and has made technical contributions on a number of other cryptocurrency projects. In spare time, he recently began a more personalized, weekly newsletter at http://ico.phm.link




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Monday Selloff Drags Majors Lower

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The cryptocurrency continues to show mixed short-term signs following last week’s Ethereum-led bounce, and the subsequent consolidation. Today, all of the majors sold off after the US open, triggering downgrades in our trend model, but the two largest coins, barely, retained their short-term buy signals, holding up above key support levels.

Ethereum remained north of $200, while Bitcoin is still above the $6275 level, but the total value of the market is back at $195 billion as BTC failed to gain ground during last week’s rebound, and as several coins failed to join the move. The odds of a failed rally got higher after today’s selloff, and the move still only qualifies as a counter-trend one, with the long-term downtrends being in no danger in most cases.

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Monro, which has been the third major on a short-term buy signal, is also still positive in our model, despite bouncing lower off the $120-$125 resistance zone and getting close to testing the $108 support level. The coin is now trading slightly below the rising short-term trendline and it would need to show strength quickly to retain stay on a buy signal. Further support is found near $100, while key long-term resistance is ahead at $150.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum fell back to the $200-$205 support zone today, and the coin is trying to establish a swing low, following the initial rally of its 15-month low. Despite the pullback, ETH is still on a short-term buy signal, but given the segment-wide long-term weakness, traders should still not enter full positions. A sustained move below $200 would warn of a test of the lows and a possible new leg lower, with strong resistance still ahead at $235 and $260 and with further support found at $180.

Market Still Lacking Sustained Strength

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin fell back to $6275 again after failing to show bullish momentum last week, and although BTC is still trading with relatively low volatility, well above the crucial support zone near $5850, the recent days are not positive for crypto-bulls. A sustained move below primary support would warn of a test of the weaker support near $6000 and a likely move to the key long-term zone, with resistance levels now ahead at $6500, $6750, and $7000.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple’s weakness is also a warning sign for bulls, as the third largest coin not just failed to join the rally last week, but it turned lower today, threatening with another move towards the August lows. XRP is still trading within its short-term range, and it remains on a neutral short-term signal, but further weakness could quickly trigger a sell signal. Support below $0.26 is found near $0.23, while resistance is ahead at $0.30, $0.3130, and $0.32.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS also remained weak during the recent altcoin bounce and now it is back on a short-term sell signal after dipping lower together with the broader market, plunging below $5 yet again. Now, a test of the August lows and a move to $4 is once again the most likely, with only the support between $4.55 and $4.65 found above the August low, while strong resistance is ahead between $5.35 and $5.55.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 347 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Downtrend Looms for Binance Coin

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Binance Coin/Bitcoin (BNB/BTC) is one of the few altcoins that’s in the green this year. The pair is up by over 145% year-to-date. The gains can be shocking, especially if you consider that most crypto pairs are down by 70% – 90%. That’s because BNB/BTC has been known to move against the general cryptocurrency market trend. The pair rose just as many popular altcoins started to plummet.

Recently, however, we’ve seen a good number of altcoins show bullish signals. If BNB/BTC counters the overall trend, then could it be possible that it is in danger of becoming bearish? In this article, we show how a major shift in the trend looms for Binance Coin.

Presence of Bearish Divergence

Seasoned traders know that a bearish divergence is a sell signal. It indicates that the market has lost its upward momentum. Thus, it would be difficult to sustain the ascent even if prices continue to rise. Without momentum, the market is in danger of reversing its trend.

Pull up the weekly chart of BNB/BTC and you’ll see a bearish divergence on the weekly chart.

Weekly chart of BNB/BTC

BNB/BTC managed to climb even though momentum was dissipating. Switch to the daily chart and you’ll see an even larger bearish divergence.

This indicator is telling us not to buy the recent dip. Chances are the uptrend is already over.

Emergence of a Reversal Pattern

On top of a bearish divergence, BNB/BTC is forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern on the daily chart. This is further evidence that upward momentum is disappearing. The lower high of 0.0019999 that the market generated on August 09, 2018 is a sign of weakness. This means that demand has significantly decreased.

Daily chart of BNB/BTC

Currently, BNB/BTC is struggling to stay on top of 0.0014 support. In addition, technical indicators show that a breach is on the horizon. Volume has been thin even though the market is just above the support. Also, the daily RSI has been generating a series of lower highs.

Without volume and momentum, BNB/BTC is at risk of triggering the reversal pattern.

Entrance into Bear Territory  

Technical analysts have different definitions of a bear market. One of the most common definitions used is an asset enters bear territory once it drops by 20% from its recent high. That’s because in a bull market, participants would consider a 10% – 15% dip as an opportunity to bargain hunt. With strong optimism, markets tend to bounce and resume the uptrend.

A 20% fall from the recent high generally means that participants are no longer optimistic about the market’s outlook. They are not racing to place long positions even though prices have significantly dropped because traders are afraid. We’re seeing this dynamic in BNB/BTC.

Fibonacci levels of BNB/BTC

BNB/BTC is hovering just above the 50% Fibonacci level. That means that the market has lost close to 50% of its value from the recent high of 0.0026555. Yet, buyers are scarce. When a significant number of participants realize that demand is not going to be as strong as it used to, they will very likely dump their positions. That should ignite the downtrend.  

Bottom Line

Binance Coin may be in the green this year but it appears that change is coming. With many popular altcoins showing signs of life, BNB/BTC is revealing reversal signals. These include the presence of a bearish divergence, the emergence of a head and shoulders pattern, and the entrance and stay in bear territory.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 234 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Pre-Market: China Bear Market Deepens as Shares Hit 4-Year Lows

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Global stocks and other risk assets started the week with slight losses so far, and the recently weak segments continue to struggle, while US markets are still acting relatively strong, suggesting the continuation of the recent trends. European markets are among the weaker ones again, even after last week’s bounce, with the major benchmarks all being around 10% off their highs, in stark contrast with their US peers.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With all eyes on the second round of US tariffs directed to China, it’s no surprise that the pressure on the Shanghai Composite didn’t ease yet, and the benchmark slid to yet another almost 4-year low this morning. The Chinese Yuan is holding on well in the meantime, with the August low being in no danger, as of now.

USD/TRY (Turkish Lira), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

That said, emerging market currencies are back in the crosshairs, with Argentinean Peso, the Brazilian Real, and the Turkish Lira all drifting in early trading.  The Lira, which got a boost from the emergency 6% rate hike by the local central bank last week, is headed towards pre-rate hike levels, and that doesn’t bode well for the coming weeks with regards to Turkish and other emerging market assets.

Dow Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Economic releases will be few and far between this week compared to last week’s busy calendar, and today, only the Empire State Manufacturing Index made some waves, missing the consensus estimate, and suggesting a slowdown in the recently well-performing US segment. The final CPI in the Eurozone didn’t cause any surprises, coming in at the originally reported 2.0% annualized rate. The Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500 all opened slight below Friday’s levels after the releases, but the more interesting moves are in Forex markets.

Dollar Declines Against Majors as Commodities Mixed

DXY, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

After Friday’s bounce, the Dollar couldn’t maintain its momentum and today, the reserve currency is lower against most of its global peers, with the Dollar index sliding towards its July lows. With the Fed’s next rate hike just around the corner, the current move is more the product of Mario Draghi’s inflation warning, which is pushing the Euro higher since Thursday’s ECB meeting.

From a longer-term perspective, the Dollar’s strength could be undermined by the Trump administration’s pro-cyclical fiscal expansion, at least against the majors, but until the US economy keeps on booming, we expect bulls to be in control of the Greenback’s market.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities are trading without a clear direction today, with copper following Chinese stocks lower, maintaining the strong correlation, while gold and crude oil are slightly higher. The WTI crude contract is edging towards the $70 per barrel price level again, still trading within a narrowing range, while the main precious metal is also stuck near the $1200 level following a four-month-long decline.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 347 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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