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How Monetary Goods Compare: Bitcoin, Gold and the U.S. Dollar

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One of the most common arguments against the value of cryptocurrencies, and monetary ones like bitcoin in particular, is how they compare to current assets. Gold and the U.S. dollar are the two counter-examples which get used the most, which is why it can be helpful to compare each of their attributes to figure out where each one shines.

Monetary goods can be compared on a few different terms. Gold was the original “money,” but we presently use fiat currency, and are talking about the bitcoin as being the future of monetary assets.

Scarcity and Verifiability

The first thing that needs to be compared is whether they are scarce or not. In this regard, fiat currency is actually the least scarce. The last few decades have seen many politicians print more money to create short-term solutions, but this means the scarcity is almost non-existent.

Gold fares better, as there is a limited amount available at any time, but if there were any innovations in mining technology, the supply could increase immediately. Bitcoin is actually the most scarce (despite what detractors might say) because there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins and the schedule of their mining is relatively fixed.

In terms of verifiability, bitcoin also beats both gold and fiat currency. Counterfeits of both exist, but there are no passable counterfeits for bitcoin. In terms of durability, gold triumphs over all since it is relatively robust, but fiat can be destroyed quite easily. Bitcoin falls in the middle, as it can be destroyed if the network is destroyed or the private keys are lost.

Portability

This plays in a bit with being scarce and verifiable, but is most of all about the ability to cross borders with the coin or send money all the way across the world. It is hard to argue that gold or fiat currency are easier to do either of these with.

The capital controls and government regulations present in the world make it very hard to send fiat currency to other countries. However, with cryptocurrency, you can just put the money on a USB drive and go anywhere.

Censorship Resistance

One of the key factors that makes bitcoin so powerful is its inability to be censored or controlled. The First Amendment is all about free speech and the right to say what you want, and there needs to be a corresponding right that applies to currencies. Being able to fund what you wish without gaining the permission of another entity is what makes the network so valuable.

The presence of gatekeepers in the fiat system is a lot of what has created such strong demand for a censorship resistant currency. Governments have outlawed certain uses of currency (e.g. illicit drugs or sex trafficking), which is clearly a good for the world. But at the same time, if one was trying to flee China, it would not be possible to do so while maintaining a hold on all their fiat currency. This is where the opportunity for bitcoin begins.

Understanding Monetization

Now that we’ve compared these goods on several different dimensions, we can see that bitcoin has merit compared to gold or USD in some respects. The only thing that it lacks is an established history, having been created in 2009. This is important because it enables the path from inception to widespread use. which is referred to as monetization. The process can take a long time, but there are a few things we can expect.

The prices will naturally continue to go up above the intrinsic value of the good, as a monetary premium is necessary. Monetary premiums are the difference between the market value and intrinsic value of a cryptocurrency. A dollar is worth far more than the paper it is printed on and the utility of a bar of gold is less than 10% of its current market value.

The increases in price are expected, since each monetary good must rise above its intrinsic value to a market derived value. Bubbles are a standard part of the monetization process, which is counter-intuitive to what we’ve heard so far. This can look like a bubble to doubters, but it is only a bubble if it pops. If it doesn’t it is just the market searching for an appropriate monetary premium for the cryptocurrency. In the end, there is no objectively correct monetary good in the world and network effects and evangelization are key.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

Monero Price Analysis: Stronger Malware to Mine Monero; XMR/USD Has Room for Another Potential Squeeze South

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  • Researchers: a stronger malware has been uncovered, which can mine Monero.
  • XMR/USD price action remains stuck in a narrowing range, subject to an imminent breakout.

The XMR/USD price has seen some upside on Saturday, holding gains of around 3% towards the latter stages of the day. Despite the press higher from the bulls, a move which has been observed across the cryptocurrency market, vulnerabilities remain. Price action has been ranging for the past nine sessions. Once again, this isn’t specifically just XMR, as this type of behavior is witnessed across the board. The narrowing in play came after the steep drop that rippled across the market on 10th January.

Price action was initially well-supported to the upside by an ascending trend line, which was in play from 15th December. This at the time was a very promising recovery, as XMR/USD had gained as much as 55%. Unfortunately, however, the bulls were unable to break down supply heading into the $60 region and were eventually dealt a big hammer blow. On 10th January, the market bears forced a heavy breach to the downside, smashing through this support. The price had dropped a big double-digits, some 20%.

Stronger Malware Mining Monero (XMR)

There is a dangerous form of malware that can bypass being detected and mine Monero (XMR) on cloud-based servers. A recent notice was put out by Palo Alto Networks’ Unit 42, an intelligence team that specializes in cyber threats, regarding a Linux mining malware. This was detailed to have been developed by Rocke group, which has the ability uninstall cloud security products. It can do this to the likes of Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, to then illegally mine Monero on compromised machines.

The two researchers from Palo Alto Networks, Xingyu Jin and Claud Xiao, detailed the findings of their studies. Once the malware is downloaded, it takes administrative control to initially uninstall all cloud security products. Shortly after, it will then then transmit code that will mine the Monero (XMR). Further within their press release, they said, “To the best of our knowledge, this is the first malware family that developed the unique capability to target and remove cloud security products.”

Technical Review – XMR/USD

XMR/USD daily chart.

Given the current range block formation, eyes should be on the key near-term technical areas. Firstly, to the downside, $43, which is the lower part of the range. A breach here will likely see a retest of the December low, $38. To the upside, resistance be observed at around the mid $46 level. Should a breakout be observed here, then a potential retest of the broken trend line will be watched.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Litecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Bulls Enjoy Big Jump But Stubborn Resistance Capping Potential

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  • Litecoin sees a relief rally on Friday, but is still stuck within stubborn range-block.
  • LTC/USD price action has formed a bearish flag pattern structure, subject to a potential break lower.

The Litecoin price on Saturday was seen holding decent gains of over 5%, as life is kicked back into the bulls. The LTC/USD pair has been victim of trading within a stubborn daily $3 range. This very much being the case for the past nine trading sessions. It is a form of consolidation after the breach south from an ascending trend line. This had been supporting the price from 14th December 2018, up until the bears forced a breach on 10th January.

In light of the breakout below the above-mentioned trend line, a large wave of selling pressure came with that. LTC/USD plunged by as much as 25% to the lowest levels seen since the start of the month. The earlier described range-block formation has come as a result of the increased volatility that accompanied the break south. The high of the range should be noted at the $33 mark, with the lower support eyed down at the psychological $30 level.

Bear Flag

Given this type of price behavior from a technical standpoint, it appears to demonstrate some vulnerabilities to the downside. The calming and consolidating after an initial explosive drop lower to then potentially resume the selling pressure reflects this point. As can see from either the 4-hour or daily chart, price action has formed a bearish flag pattern. When the market fell from 9-10th January, this formed the pole of the bearish flag of the structure. The actual flag is currently being constructed, as part of the sideways trading being observed.

Lightening Network Trial Underway

As reported by the CCN team, Coingate, a cryptocurrency-based payments platform, has now executed a trial run of its Lightening Network via Litecoin.  The platform has partnered up with a privacy service provider, known as Surfshark for this pilot project. Within the partnership, the implementation of Lightening Network payment solution for Litecoin transactions is a big milestone for the cryptocurrency community.

Technical Review – LTC/USD

LTC/USD daily chart. A bearish flag structure can be seen.

As detailed earlier, a breakout from the range-block formation will be the next trend defining move. Should the bears manage to force a break below the lower support, tracking at $30, then a demand area below will be called into action. This can be observed tracking within the $28 price region, which is a known area to find buyers. A failure to do so could see LTC/USD drop back down towards $23-22 range.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

EOS Price Analysis: EOSIO 1.6 Update Enhances Speeds and is Cost Effective; Downside Price Risks Remain for EOS/USD

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  • EOSIO developers have released 1.6 upgrade, which sees enhanced speeds and is more cost efficient.
  • EOS/USD price action is ranging; given current behavior, a breakout may just be imminent.

The EOS price on Friday is seen trading down in minor negative territory. The price is caught in a very stubborn range. This behavior being observed could prove to be damaging in the coming sessions if the bulls do not break above resistance. EOS/USD is being dictated by a tough acting supply area, which is seen tracking from $2.60-$2.50 range. Then to the downside, a near-term demand zone is keeping the price propped up for now, $2.35-$2.25.

EOS/USD is moving within this consolidation mode, which has come into play since breaching a vital part of the bull’s recovery. An ascending trend line was seen tracking from 7th December 2018, right up until it was breached by the market bears on 10th January 2019.  This had coincided with the price running into chunky resistance at the psychological $3.00 price mark. It has not convincingly been above this region since the back-end of November 2018.

EOSIO 1.6 Release

EOSIO developers, who have been working on a system upgrade, have now announced the release of an upgraded version 1.6.0 of EOSIO. In terms of the impact of this development, they have instantly been noticeable and signaling a large improvement.  This new release does boast further features and fixes to improve upon the cumulative patches, which were implemented to enhance v1.5.

Details were provided by the company within an official Medium blog post. Updates on the EOSIO software will enhance efficiency for the peer-to-peer networking layer in addition to seeing real-time transactions improve overall transaction speed. They further stated that this release is something that had been planned as part of their progressive goals to improve their performance. They have intentions to maintain the fastest protocol across the market.

The development team tweeted, “Tests show upwards of a 35% increase in likely transaction speed. We are projecting noticeable improvements to sustainable transactions per second. In addition, reduced CPU costs, and lower latency on all EOSIO based blockchains.”

Technical Review – EOS/USD

EOS/USD daily chart.

The key for a new committed trend is to see a breakout from the confinements of the mentioned supply sitting above and demand zone below. Given the earlier detailed break below an ascending trend line, vulnerabilities remain, with the range-block formation.

Should the bears manage to force a drop below $2.25, then a new wave of selling will likely come into force. The next major area of support should be noted down towards the December 2018 low. $1.83 and then then $1.55 regions should be sought for potential comfort.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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