Analysis Has Ethereum Lost Its Cache? Published 2 months ago on August 8, 2018 By James Waggoner For all of us believers that asset prices are set by fundamentals rather than fantasy, these are perplexing times. Crypto prices are not only way off their January highs, they are at the lowest level this year. Progress in addressing issues like scaling and security may be slow, but they are taking place. The cooperation between crypto and government regulators is improving in big chunks. Yet, while all this is going on crypto technicals look terrible. Everyday technical analysts use words like downtrend and overhead resistance. When prices have rallied, the joy is short lived, lasting only for a day or two. Even on good days, the moves are weak on low volume. This is never a good sign. Long gone are the kind of investor fears about missing out (FOMO) that we saw last year. There are fundamental reasons for skepticism for long term believers, as the data has not been going in the right direction. True, projects are progressing a slow pace. This maybe good for avoiding problems with security etc., but for investors who want immediate gratification, right now crypto isn’t ringing any bells. But truth is, crypto markets appear to be unresponsive even to seemingly good news. Take for example this recent Cryptovest headline: Cardano (ADA) Releases New Version, Price Remains Stagnant. Today, crypto exchange Coinbase announced it was increasing daily trading limits sevenfold, changing settlement times from days to instantaneous and finishing its beta before accepting Ethereum Classic. At the time of this writing, Bitcoin had fallen over 8% in the previous 24 hours while ETH was off almost 10.5%. This marks on of the worst days for crypto in quite a long time. Drilling down a bit into ETH reveals some core softness. Since virtually the entire crypto pricing stinks there is more than a single cause to Ethereum’s weakness, but here is a start. Using DappRadar To Measure Ether Demand According to Business Insider, there were over 930 ICOs last year that raised anywhere from $3-$5.7 billion depending on which resource you listen to. In the first quarter of 2018, there were roundly another 200 raising over $6 billion. These numbers make for great headlines but there is one problem. They have not translated into higher prices for Ether, or any other crypto either. The Ethereum platform can claim that somewhere between 70%-80% of ICOs that have Dapps built on the ETH platform. If logic were applied, this should result in greater demand for Ether. But as the truism goes, if everything were logical, men would ride sidesaddle! One of the clues to unlock this contradiction may rest in the use cases for the most active Dapps. What I an getting at is this: when the top five Dapps function as exchanges to buy and sell Ether or any other ERC-20 token, that is not a sign of mass adoption. Nor is it good when almost 75% of the activity in the top five is accounted by three Dapps and those are exchanges. And finally when volume on nine out of the top ten are trending down, it is not what investors want so see. To keep some balance to these observations, there are some positive use cases. Three of the ten most active Dapps are for gamers, and that is a use case worth it weight in any currency. Also, usage levels tend to be quite volatile from hour to hour so we may have checked on an atypical moment. But what we want to see are use cases like marketplaces or even gambling where user demand trumps speculators and where activity is growing. What Is Happening With Augur And speaking of gambling, Ethereum big gun Augur, which allows users to create prediction markets for just about anything by buying shares and staking ETH in the outcome of an event. When launched in early July nearly 1,200 were traded in a 24 hour period. At the time Augur appeared to be one of Ethereum’s most promising Dapps. To be clear, 1,200 is just a benchmark and not proof of success or failure. However, when Augur, one of your most promising Dapps, is being used less than 100 a day with a huge valuation of over $300 million, that is a disappointing moment. What Ethereum Needs So what is missing here? From the insights offered by DappRadar, the answer is that ETH, and for that matter crypto in general, is hungry for valid signs of a breakthrough in mass adoption. In other words, developments in the payments side of crypto could well provide the needed solution. There is no shortage of projects like Bitcoin Superstore and TenX. And there is always the possibility that the critics of Augur are premature in claiming this potentially game changing Dapp is a disappointment. But so far all of the flashy new whitepapers and highly valued ICOs aren’t connecting with investors. It is time for proof that actual crypto users are getting into game. And obviously, what is good for ETH is also needed by other players as well. Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink. Rate this post: Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way. (6 votes, average: 4.00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this. Loading... James Waggoner 4.4 stars on average, based on 113 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto. Follow @HackedCom Feedback or Requests? Related Topics:augur coinDappRadar Up Next Crypto Update: Dead Cat Bounce? Don't Miss Crypto Update: Coins Slaughtered as Support Fall, Ethereum Hits 4-Month Low You may like As Gemini Embraces Zcash, Japan’s Coincheck Delists Privacy Coins 2 Comments 2 Comments Daniel Won August 9, 2018 at 9:51 am Some great articles coming out from Hacked today Log in to Reply James Waggoner August 9, 2018 at 4:22 pm All of us thank you for this comment: much appreciated Log in to Reply You must be logged in to post a comment Login Leave a Reply Cancel replyYou must be logged in to post a comment. Analysis Hawkish Fed Lifts Yields, Dollar as Stock-Correction Continues Published 9 hours ago on October 18, 2018 By Mate Cser US stock markets had a choppy and mixed session, and the major indices closed the day virtually unchanged, despite the early losses and the negative news flow. The US housing market disappointed again, the EU-Italy debate over the country’s budget continued, the US-Chinese relations further deteriorated, and the Fed also provided a negative catalyst towards the end of the day. Dow 30 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis Investors were eagerly waiting for the meeting minute form the Fed’s latest meeting, but those expecting a dovish surprise were let down. The transcript contained more hints to tighter-than-expected monetary policies in the coming months and years, but still after an initial dip stocks rebounded to pre-announcement levels. US 2-Year Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis While especially shorter-dated yields rallied after the release, we would add that although there were voices that the Fed should exceed the “neutral” interest rate to cool the economy in the future, those voices will likely be muted by any major correction in financial markets or even a moderate slowdown in the economy. Russell 2000, 4-Hour Chart Analysis Stocks weathered the rise in yields so far, but after-hours, futures markets are drifting lower, and should yields resume their recent swift advance, another wave of selling could hit risk assets. With a lot of stocks and benchmarks still clearly in oversold territory concerning the short-term momentum indicators, the choppy correction could also continue, but we remain defensive towards global stocks, and we expect the risk-off period to continue in the coming weeks. Dollar Extends Early Gains as WTI Crude Dips Below $70 Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis While the Dollar was already up in early trading against most of its major peers, it got a strong boost from the meeting minutes, with the Dollar Index climbing above the key support/resistance level near 95.50, establishing a swing low. Barring a quick reversal, the Greenback headed for another important leg higher, and all eyes will be on the 1.15 level in the EUR/USD pair, as an extended move below that could open up the way for a strong momentum move in the USD. On a positive note, the most vulnerable emerging market currencies continue to perform well, in contrast with equities in the segment, and that could give some stability to risk-on currencies in the face of the broadly negative technicals WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis Commodities mostly finished the day with losses amid the rally in the Dollar, but while gold still only gave back a small part of its recent gains, oil plunged to a new almost one-month low, at least as measured by the WTI contract. The Brent contract continues to outperform despite the easing of the US-Saudi tensions, but overall the risk-off shift in global markets is clearly hurting oil. Copper is still stuck in a volatility compression pattern, but given the lengthy consolidation, a significant move is expected in the coming days by the industrial metal. Featured image from Shutterstock Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink. Rate this post: Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way. (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this. Loading... Mate Cser 4.6 stars on average, based on 378 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market. Follow @HackedCom Feedback or Requests? Continue Reading Altcoins Why Would Anyone Have Faith In Tether? Published 15 hours ago on October 17, 2018 By James Waggoner I don’t want to get sued for slander so let me explain the reasoning beyond today’s title. After all of the turmoil surrounding Tether on Monday, how can the price be anywhere near the $1 parity level with the US dollar? After more than a year, how can anyone have confidence in Tether and their common law partners Bitfinex when, for example, Circle, backed be the highly respected Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs offers an alternative? We should also mention that Circle is just one of many so called stable coins. It isn’t hard to find a list. Exchanges are feverishly adding stable coins. Singapore based Houbi is adding Paxos Standard Token (PAX), True USD (TUSD), Circle (USDC) and Gemini (GUSD). When Stable Coins Cause Instability Well, the evidence is mounting as the months move along that so called stable coins can have the power of creating anything but stability. This week’s experience with Tether, Bitfinex and the price explosion of Bitcoin demonstrates that there are still dangers lurking. This is why trust is important. Monday’s gyrations were not the first questionable moment for Tether. The coin, which gains its intended stability by being tied on a one for one basis with the US dollar, has been the subject of questionable behavior all year. As far back as January trade sources were expressing concern the Tether was responsible for last December’s major price bubble in Bitcoin. The frenzy over Bitcoin set off speculation across the entire crypto spectrum. But that was just the beginning. In June Bloomberg reported on a paper by John Griffin, a finance professor at the University of Texas, that among other things claimed 60% of last year’s price move in Bitcoin was the result of manipulation surrounding Bitfinex. That directly implicates Tether. Using algorithms to analyze the blockchain data, Griffin’s team found that purchases with Tether were timed following market downturns and result in sizable increases in Bitcoin prices. Less than 1% of hours with such heavy Tether transactions are associated with 50% of the meteoric rise in Bitcoin and 64% of other top cryptocurrencies. These findings prompted the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to step in with a series of subpoenas. Tether’s coins had become a popular substitute for dollars on cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide, and for good reason. They are anonymous, closely tied to the value of the US dollar and can be used in exchange for Bitcoin, Ether or about 10 other cryptocurrencies. Tether is closely associated with Bitfinex, with whom they share common shareholders and management. Bitfinex has offices in Hong Kong but it is legally headquartered in the British Virgin Islands. In May they announced plans to move to Zug, Switzerland. Bitfinex has a sorted history of poor security, having lost nearly $100 million worth of Bitcoin from customer accounts. Moreover, while claiming to have total one for one US dollar backing for each Tether, real proof is absent. Further Evidence of Manipulation Over the course of this year, as we have gathered digitally to witness the loss of nearly $600 billion in crypto value, everyone has been looking for the culprit. When I first read of some of the academic studies that blamed the advent of futures trading on the CBOE, I laughed. Honestly, I believed the real cause of the rise and fall of crypto were a well connected group of billionaires that together had the power to move markets. Well the folks at Chainalysis have just produced some surprising research results. Their Blockchain Intelligence Platform powers investigation software for some of the world’s top institutions. These guys don’t do surveys, the have their hands on big data that is able to detect some interesting stuff. Chainalysis released a new report last week showing that the so called Bitcoin whales are not responsible for price volatility. The study examined the 32 largest BTC wallets, which reportedly represent 1 million BTC, or around $6.3 billion. That is a pretty solid sample size. The data revealed that the BTC whales are do not act in concert with one another. In fact not only are they a diverse group but about two thirds behave like longer term investors. Instead of being FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) types, on net they have traded against the heard buying on price weakness. Putting The Pieces Together The crypto world is bombarded with globally generated news on an hourly basis. But what does all of it mean anyway? Hopefully this article adds some perspective on what and who has been responsible for the direction of crypto prices over the past year. As more of these weak players are identified and depleted of their business, real investors will have the confidence to return to the market. Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink. Rate this post: Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way. (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this. Loading... James Waggoner 4.4 stars on average, based on 113 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto. Follow @HackedCom Feedback or Requests? Continue Reading Altcoins EOS Price Forecast: EOS/USD Heading for Another 300% Move? Published 17 hours ago on October 17, 2018 By Ken Chigbo EOS/USD price action via the 4-hour chart view has formed a bullish flag pattern. The price is moving around levels seen back end of March to early April, before a bull run of over 300%. The past six sessions for EOS/USD have been erratic to say the least. It has been subject to a high amount of volatility, swinging aggressively in both directions. There has been a lack of commitment from either the bear or bull camps of late. As the market continues to trade with such behavior, it appears to be trying to find its feet, ahead of a potential chunky firm trend. EOS DApp Hacked Again An EOS based gambling DApp, EOSBet has been hacked, with $338,000 being reported as stolen. This isn’t the first time; just back in September, hackers managed to get away with a reported 40,000 worth of EOS, which at the time had a value of $200,000. It has been said that they were able to exploit their smart contracts, having found security vulnerabilities. Technical Review – 4-hour Chart View EOS/USD 4-hour chart EOS/USD price action has formed a bullish flag pattern, which began taking shape on 15th October, after the aggressive price behavior stabilized. The bulls at the time ran the price well up into $6 territory. Consequently, it then met the breached ascending trend line, failing to move back above this area. This followed the sharp breakthrough to the downside, which occurred on 11th October. As a result, a drop of over 15% was seen, forcing EOS/USD to retreat in a demand area, within the $5.0000 level proximity. Looking to the upside, small near-term resistance is seen at around $5.6100, which is the upper trend line of the mentioned bull flag pattern. A breakout will likely open the doors to a retest of the broken ascending trend line, tracking around $6.1100. Support can be eyed at $5.4600, which marks the lower trend line of the flag. Furthermore, should this fail to hold, EOS/USD could likely fall back down to the serving demand area, within the lower $5.0000 territory. April 2018 Bull Run EOS/USD April bull run In April of this year EOS/USD entered a chunky bull run, gaining over 300%. From the back end of March until 11th April, the price had been stuck within consolidation mode. Resulting in the price trading within a tight range, at levels of where the price is currently seen today. Something quite astonishing started to unfold. Between the period of 11th April to the 29th April, a bull run of around 290% was seen. Over this time frame EOS/USD went from $5.9500 up to a high of around $23.0811. The price is currently demonstrating a similar behavior to that of what was seen during the mentioned period. It is interesting to note that the price did have historical levels to break through, as it had already run higher during the period of December 2017 and came back down. Finally, this is not to say EOS/USD will observe the same bull run. However, it is an interesting observation to be aware of. Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading. Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink. Rate this post: Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way. (1 votes, average: 5.00 out of 5)You need to be a registered member to rate this. Loading... Ken Chigbo 4.5 stars on average, based on 31 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets. Follow @HackedCom Feedback or Requests? Continue Reading Recent CommentsChris G on Crypto Update: Altcoin Market Cap on the Verge of Trend Reversaldavidstewartkim on “The Core of Any Blockchain Project is Decentralization” – Jack Zhang, Lightning BitcoinDaniel Won on ICO Analysis: Dusk NetworkSholaO on ICO Analysis: Dusk NetworkDaniel Won on ICO Analysis: Dusk Network Crypto Update: Altcoin Market Cap on the Verge of... Trade Recommendation: Dogecoin Uber: $120 Billion IPO? EOS Price Forecast: EOS/USD Heading for Another 30... 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