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Happy Fork Day

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Hi Everybody,

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As many of you know, today the Bitcoin scaling debate will run up against a critical deadline.

This is sure to be the most uncertain time in the world of digital currencies and after the astonishing surge in pricing since the beginning of the year and positive legislation for digital assets from several countries, the world is watching.

As it stands, 100% of the mining community is signaling to implement the Segwit protocol and 87% are voting for SegWit2x. Another option that has been gaining momentum is bitcoin cash, which will be attempting to hard fork the network today.

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Bitcoin cash is said to have a newer and stronger code than even SegWit2x but the support for it in the mining community is still extremely small. Of course, since bitcoin cash is offering to give 1 BCC for every BTC held in a “supported wallet” the excitement from users has been overwhelming.

Now, nobody really knows how this is all going to play out. What we do know is that many brokers and exchanges including eToro will be halting all transactions within the next few hours for an undetermined period of time until everything is sorted out.

eToro’s downtime will begin today at 11:00 GMT and will last until our experts feel that the network has stabilized.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Today’s Highlights

Any reaction to N Korea?

USDollar holding support

Forking Brexit (EURGBP)

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of July 31st. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

With earnings season well under way, traders on Friday have propelled the Dow Jones to a brand new all time record high.

A shakeup in the Trump administration, failed healthcare reform bill, new Russian sanctions, nor a successful missile test from North Korea could bring the stocks down.

There does seem to be a bit of a safety play in the markets this morning though. We can see in the currency markets that the three main safe haven currencies are leading the day so far.

Even the U.S. Dollar, which has been falling nonstop lately, seems to have found some temporary support.

As well, the ultimate safe haven, gold is extending its gains from the past few weeks and is on track for a very strong July.

One thing that may be causing investor optimism is the price of oil, which has reluctantly crossed the $50 mark in the last few minutes.

Soft Brexit Fork

While we wait to see if there will be a hard fork or soft fork in bitcoin, we can see in the U.K. parliament that the notion of a soft Brexit is now in danger of a hard fork.

Prime Minister May’s Tory party is splitting itself in two over what immigration to the U.K. will look like immediately after the Brexit. Chancellor Philip Hammond and his allies are very happy to keep the borders relatively loose, while his opponents argue that an immigrant free Britain was the main driver behind the decision to leave the EU in the first place.

So far, no word from the Prime Minister on this critical issue.

Meanwhile, the Euro strength is overtaking the British Pound and some analysts are forecasting that parity (1.0000) might be in striking distance for the EURGBP.

As always, let me know if you have any questions, comments, or other feedback. Wishing you an amazing week ahead.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be investment advice or recommendation.
The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Featured image from Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Broad Correction Enters Next Phase

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The overbought BTC-led correction that has been the dominating technical process in the cryptocurrency segment in the last month or so continued in earnest today, amid the intensifying regulatory steps concerning the sector. The three-week-long consolidation that followed the initial mini-crash concluded with a sharp sell-off overnight rearranging the long-term charts, while likely kicking off another volatile period.

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While most of the crash lows held up today in early trading in the majors, especially in the case of the late leaders like Ethereum and NEO, some of the relatively weaker coins are already trading below the December minimums. We expect most of the majors to follow Dash and LTC, the weakest of the largest coins, lower and trade below the previous lows, as sentiment will likely swing to a bearish extreme.

The $11,300 level has been in the center of attention throughout the session today and the most valuable coin experienced heavy trading around the level as expected. As the daily MACD is still in neutral territory, the coin could be in for another leg lower, but after the 40% correction and the rather lengthy consolidation, investors could be looking for entry points during the move near the key support levels at $10,000, $9000, and the stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

As Ethereum is in a different part of its cycle the long-term momentum readings are still overbought, and that could mean a more protracted correction for the second largest coin. That said, following a multi-month consolidation like the one in Ethereum before, we still expect the token to outperform BTC from a long-term technical standpoint. ETH is now below the short-term trendline, and it’s likely to dip below $1000, and the prior top at $850. Further key levels are found at $740, $625, $575, and near $500.

ETH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see the outlook for the other major altcoins after today’s bloodbath.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Chinese Crackdown Triggers Next Leg of Correction

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The cryptocurrency segment is crashing again, with double-digit losses across the board, and with several coins shedding around 30% in one day amid the widespread and heavy selling. The sell-off was triggered by reports on a new set of measures by the Chinese authorities limiting crypto trading, which added to the still looming South Korea related regulation worries. Bitcoin tested the mini-crash lows at $11,300 today in early trading, dipping slightly below that level before a strong bounce started.

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The most valuable coin is now between two crucial support/resistance lines, with the other ahead at $13,000, and as the downtrend is entering its more mature phase the $10,000 and $9,200 levels could come in play, with a possible dip to the support zone near $7,650.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Interestingly, the coin is still hovering within the daily range of the crash of December 22nd, and that points to a very active and volatile period ahead near the low at $11,300, as automatic orders will likely get triggered on both sides of the market.

The short-term setup is bearish, and although it’s possible that the primary support level will hold, odds still favor another leg lower, following the exponential run-up at the end of last year that pushed sentiment into bullish extremes.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Altcoins

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

NEO Shows Poise While Other Cryptocurrencies Struggle

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NEO has quietly emerged as one of 2018’s best performing cryptocurrencies, defying multiple market selloffs en route to new highs. The so-called Ethereum of China has also carved out a name for itself in the fast-growing ICO market, where it is now among a small handful of blockchains enabling startups to raise capital through the popular crowdfunding model.

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New Record Highs

NEO was the only major cryptocurrency to spike this weekend, even as bitcoin and Ethereum suffered declines. The coin pushed higher on Monday, hitting a new record of $205.46. It would later consolidate around $190 for a gain of 17%.

The latest rally gives NEO a market cap of $11.8 billion, putting it eighth among active cryptocurrencies. Trade volumes over the last 24 hours reached $1.5 billion with 65 million tokens in circulation. The majority of the turnover occurred on just two exchanges: Upbit and Binance.

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With the gain, NEO’s value has appreciated around 120% year-to-date. That’s nearly double the price growth of Ethereum, a comparable platform that recently took back the second seed on the crypto market cap leader board.

Ethereum of China

NEO’s trajectory over the last six months has mirrored Ethereum’s both in terms of value and project development. Its success is partly owed to ether, as both cryptocurrencies are based on smart contracts. NEO differs from Ethereum on several fronts, including the execution of C# code, which makes it more attractive for developers.

Beyond the hype, NEO provides developers with the toolbox to advance the smart economy by digitizing assets and automating the management of those assets through smart contracts. It is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that can succeed in a heavily regulated China, which only recently tightened the noose on cryptocurrency miners as part of its broad offensive against digital assets.

With the exception of Stellar Lumens, NEO is perhaps the only cryptocurrency not named Ethereum that is making inroads into the ICO market. Dozens of token raises have launched on the NEO platform, including 27 in the span of two days. Although China has banned ICOs, there’s a possibility that regulators may one day introduce a centralized model that will allow the government to oversee the entire process.

According to at least one metric, ICOs raised more than $6 billion last year, with December being the most successful month yet with more than $1.6 billion raised.

While this is merely speculation at this point, the Chinese ban on cryptocurrency was initiated just before the 19th National Congress of the National Party. The event, held every five years, is usually a showdown between communists die-hards who want to maintain the old system of central planning and those who are seeking more liberal reforms.

Regardless of China’s regulatory future, NEO appears poised to capitalize on any opportunity involving public blockchain. The company certainly has that ambition, and has shown no issue following national guidelines.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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