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Analysis

Is This a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin?

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Bitcoin market cap

It is a difficult task to call a bottom when an asset class is in a downtrend. However, using technical analysis, we can at least try to get a rough idea about the levels that can offer a strong support. Please remember that when panic sets in the decline can easily overshoot on the downside. Therefore, traders should scale into the position instead of investing all the available money at once.

Key points

  1. A fall to the 200-day EMA has proven to be a good long-term buying opportunity in the past two years.
  2. Traders can buy 25% of the desired allocation around the $8900 levels and keep a stop loss of $7400.
  3. Averaging down is not a good trading practice. Hence, fresh positions should be avoided if the price breaks down and sustains below the 200-day EMA.

What is our track record in picking tops and bottoms?

Calling a top is a very difficult task. We tried to call a top in Bitcoin on two occasions. The first call on November 27 proved to be wrong. We had expected a dip of about 30% from the highs to about $7,000 but Bitcoin only dipped to $8595.95 levels on November 29 and that too only during intraday.

Thereafter, Bitcoin continued its incessant run and we again made a call of a top on December 08, when it was trading just above $16,000 levels. The virtual currency topped out at $19891.99 levels on December 17. This call proved to be very close to the top. Traders who sold following our call would be sitting pretty with enough money to invest at lower levels.

So, is Bitcoin a good buy after falling more than 50% in about a month and a half? Let’s see.

Where should traders start buying?

In end-2015, the price broke above the 200-day EMA. Since then, there have been five dips to the 200-day EMA, which have proven to be a good long-term buying opportunity.

Currently, the 200-day EMA is placed at 8898. We believe that a retest of this level is likely to attract long-term buyers once again. Traders should wait and watch for about 4-hours to see whether the level is holding or not. If the level holds, 25% of the desired allocation in Bitcoin should be done around $8900 levels. The SL for this purchase should be kept at $7400 levels.

Remaining positions can be added when the cryptocurrency confirms a bottom.

We have used a log scale to fit the chart within the scale.

What are the supports in the short-term?

The current pullback is close to the 78.6% retracement level of the latest leg of the rally. We believe that the zone between $8900 and $8600 will act as a strong support zone.

However, if the bears breakdown and sustain below the 200-day EMA for three days, it will indicate weakness. The next level on the downside that can offer some support is $7500 to $7800.

We don’t advise averaging down. Traders should hold all their purchases as long as Bitcoin remains below the 200-day EMA. Long positions should again be initiated once the cryptocurrency confirms a bottom.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




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12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Gasface

    February 1, 2018 at 7:57 pm

    Good advice my friend. I also read all of your posts at coin telegraph and I always find your advice helpful.

    Thank you🙏

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      February 2, 2018 at 11:43 am

      Hello Gasface….

      Thank you.

  2. Brentc

    February 1, 2018 at 8:28 pm

    I find Rakesh to be the most knowledgeable in his ta. I only listen to this guy period. The one guy on here is a moron which I haven’t seen any more recommendations from lately.

    • MinerMatt17

      February 2, 2018 at 4:45 am

      Agreed

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      February 2, 2018 at 11:45 am

      Hello Brentc,

      We all try to provide the best recommendations, according to what we see on the charts. At times, we fail miserably. Some times we succeed. The strategy is to lose small and hold the winners.

  3. douglash

    February 2, 2018 at 2:26 am

    This is clear, concise, tradeable advice, which is often missing in Hacked TA signals. Of course, it remains to be seen if it’s correct, but at least it’s clear.

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      February 2, 2018 at 11:46 am

      Hello douglash,

      Thank you. We shall only know in hindsight if it was a correct call or not….

  4. Haspel

    February 2, 2018 at 11:32 am

    Weird that you write ‘we’ believe 8900-8600 will be a strong support zone and two hours later Mate Cser writes we should accumulate at 8200 and 7650. Don’t you guys talk to each other?

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      February 2, 2018 at 11:51 am

      Hello Haspel,

      If you show the same chart to 100 technical analysts, all will have their own opinion on what are the levels to buy or sell at. The important take away here is that both me and Mate believe what Bitcoin is close to hitting a bottom.

      Neither me, nor Mate nor anyone in the world knows what will the exact bottom be.

      And, no, we don’t discus and provide the analysis because as a reader you should get both the versions. My assumption of a bottom in the range of $8600 to $8900 has proven wrong.

      So, now, we should wait for the decline to end and then start accumulating.

      So,

      • Haspel

        February 2, 2018 at 11:55 am

        Thank Rakesh. It’s just confusing for me to read such different opinions.

        I just read there was a big volume increase the last half hour. Could we’ve hit the bottom?

        • Rakesh Upadhyay

          February 2, 2018 at 12:09 pm

          Please don’t be confused….If you have any query, please ask us, we shall try to do our best to help you.

          Well, difficult to say. Please wait for some more time. Let’s at least stop making new lows on the 4-hourly chart. If Bitcoin sustains below the 200-day EMA for a long time, the weakness may persist.

          However, if you haven’t purchased any Bitcoin in this fall and are holding out to buy, you can start nibbling around the current levels. Say buy only about 20% of your total allocation that you have kept for Bitcoin and then wait.

          If Bitcoin falls, please hold your purchases. If it starts to recover, we can add to our positions.

          • Haspel

            February 2, 2018 at 12:20 pm

            👍🏻

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Analysis

Another Volatile Day on Wall Street

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US stock markets had an ugly morning after a bearish overnight session, with the major indices all hitting new correction lows, and with the Russell 2000 confirming the under-the-hood weakness on Wall Street yet again. The afternoon session saw another violent counter-trend rally, led by the Nasdaq that almost erased the 2+% losses accumulated during the first hours of trading.

Dow 30 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most-awaited US earnings releases were a mixed bag today, as although the bottom line of the majority of companies beat estimates, the likes of 3M (MMM) and Caterpillar (CAT) outright crashed due to their disappointing guidance, putting even more pressure on the already shaky stock market.

Caterpillar (CAT), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Verizon (VZ) and McDonald’s (MCD) performed much better after their earnings beat, but both companies are considered more defensive, and their encouraging results didn’t help the broader market in the gloomy environment. Texas Instruments (TXN) reported after the closing bell and as the semiconductor giant cut his guidance, the stock is down by around 5% lower in after-hours trading.

Treasuries Bounce Hard as Safe-Haven Flows Intensify Again

As for economic news, the German monthly PPI came in much higher than expected, the European Consumer Confidence Index was in line with expectations, while the US Richmond Manufacturing Index came in at 15, well below last month’s reading of 29 and the consensus 25.

XHB, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Tomorrow we will have the flash manufacturing and services PMIs from Europe and the US together with US new home sales, and the housing market gauge will be in the center of attention. US homebuilders have been plunging lower in recent weeks, and the XHB ETF is deep in a bear market already, as rising yields and mortgage rates hit the sector hard this year.

Today the segment outperformed thanks to the pullback in yields, and a positive surprise in sales could spark a meaningful short-covering move.

10-year US Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the swift rise in yields triggered the seep correction, at least on the surface, today the decline in stocks pushed yields lower thanks to strong the strong safe-haven flows, which also helped the Japanese Yen and gold, especially in early trading.

WTI Crude Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Commodities had a very volatile day even as copper was relatively calm, with the plunge in crude oil and the pump & dump in gold drawing a lot of attention to the segment. While gold simply followed the risk trade, hitting multi-month high in European trading and pulling back in line with the rally on Wall Street, oil was reacting to the news from Saudi Arabia regarding a pledge to increase supply this year.

The WTI contract fell to a $65 per barrel handle, a new 2-month low, shedding almost 5% in one day, and it’s hard not to spot the connection between Donald Trump’s demands regarding lower crude prices, the disastrous Saudi cover-up of the Khashoggi murder, and today’s announcement that could help in easing the tensions between the US and the Kingdom.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 381 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

TenX: Look Out The Brits Are Coming

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We have written about TenX in the past with admiration for its business model. We weren’t the only admirers.  Last year TenX raised $80 million, ranking it as the ninth largest ICO of 2017. But now, there is a new threat, UK based Wirex.  These Brits are less well financed but much further along with a real product ready to launch in the US. Could this could put the kibosh on tiny TenX? Let’s take a look.  

You Gotta Love The Concept: Mass Acceptance

Both TenX and Wirex share a similar business model. They make cryptocurrencies spendable anytime, anywhere in the world. Start with their wallet and add a supported cryptocurrency. Then when the need to fill the gas tank or pay for dinner arises, pull out your TenX or Wirex card bearing the VISA or MasterCard logo and complete the transaction.

During the transaction, your crypto is instantly converted to fiat in one seamless step.  The cost of this service to the cardholder is unclear but we presume it will have to compete with exchange fees from entities like Coinbase or Binance.

True, there are certain limitations. So far the Wirex wallet accepts only Bitcoin.  TenX boasts of accepting Bitcoin, Ether and Litecoin. That covers about 90% of crypto assets but still leaves out a long list of altcoins and the bazillion of recently minted stablecoins.

Other marketing highlights at the TenX website include the opportunity to “Spend at over 42 million points of acceptance online and offline, in almost 200 countries – perfect for the world traveller.”  Unfortunately the website also notes, “We’re working hard to bring the TenX Card to you as soon as possible. Join the waitlist in the app to be notified when it’s out.”

Neither approach is perfect.  For crypto purists the only solution is for Bitcoin and other altcoins to be accepted directly as a medium of exchange. Maybe that dream will take place by 2028 or sooner but be careful about holding your breath.

Another flaw is that both systems appear dependent on either the VISA or MasterCard payment rail (and this has been a big problem). Even under ideal circumstances these transactions fail to reach the dream of being both frictionless and free.  However from the standpoint of mass acceptance, the merchant is already absorbing these costs so it should not impede acceptance of either TenX or Wirex.

Wirex Comes To America

Now Bitcoin.com reports that Wirex, which just registered in Canada, has its sights on a US launch. There are two aspects about this that are worth noting.  First, Wirex is using transfer technology from i2c. Not being a technology mavin, it is unclear what this exactly means to things like speed and costs but it can’t hurt Wirex’s invasion of America.

So why should investors in TenX be concerned?  After all, things haven’t exactly been all that shining.  At one point this year, TenX ranked in the 50 most highly valued cryptos.  It pretty much carved out a giant sized niche.

And then back in January a great many of Visa’s cryptocurrency debit cards ceased working as the company ended its relationship with a debit card provider called WaveCrest. Affected cards were those issued by WaveCrest, including products from CryptoPay, Bitwala, TenX, Wirex and others. Since then, the price of TenX has dropped from $5 to about $0.55.

This is where the connection between Wirex and i2c could be the answer to the problem. According to Bitcoin.com “The relationship with i2c will enable Wirex to be the first crypto-friendly payment platform to offer this innovative service in the US.”

A Few Metrics on Wirex

If any published data can be believed, it would appear the Wirex already is a small force in crypto to fiat payments.  According to its website, Wirex has over 900,000 customers in 130 countries having participated in over $1 billion in transactions.  That maybe be peanuts compared to the total value of all transactions but it ain’t exactly chump change either.

So while loyal fans of TenX patiently wait for their plastic and investors sit on their $0.55 crypto investment, Wirex appears ready to steal the thunder.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

FedEx Goes Looking for New Lows

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

At a recent Federal Reserve meeting, the market was made clear that interest rates were going to rise, which means that the burden on business in the form of interest on borrowed funds will increase. The ‘cheap’ money has run out, and now overvalued companies will be heading to their real quotes. If you look at the market, the corrections are already beginning, and there is a decline in each sector. Under these conditions, stocks will be forming ranges, although in most cases they are already here. If the price is at the lower boundary, then we should expect an even greater decline, as new support levels will be formed lower.

The ‘weak link’ under these conditions will be the companies that have shown a significant decrease in profits in the current quarter relative to the previous quarter and to similar periods of the previous year.

Tips for trading here should be sought in technical analysis, since the fundamental one will not show negative trends in Q3, as reports will be provided for the previous period, and they will be compared with similar periods of last year, which in most cases will show a positive trend.

In this situation, it is possible to consider trading for lowering overpriced companies, but the trader needs to be aware of the risk they will be taken taking, as due to the gaps at the opening, losses can be fatal.

FedEx, a leading mailing operator, is among such companies that are set to decline in the near future. Quarterly reports show an increase in profits compared to the same period last year. With this in mind, it would seem, there is no reason for concern, as the fall in profits in Q3 this year was also observed last year.

FedEx

Meanwhile, the short float is as low as 2.01%. The debt to capital ratio is less than 1, which also indicates the company is good to invest into.

On Oct 18, FedEx announced the acquisition of Manton Air-Sea Pty Ltd, a leading logistics service provider based in Australia. This will allow FedEx to increase its presence in the Australian market. The transaction is scheduled to be completed by the end of this year.

Analyzing other financial indicators, the negative details can only be found in the discrepancy between the Q3 earnings per share predicted values, since the EPS expectations were at $3.80, and in fact it turned out to be just $3.46, which resulted in the company ending its trading session with a 1.7% decline.

Without going into details, the company’s profit is growing, dividends are paid, and there is no reason to worry, especially when the index is being bought heavily during such falls. Let’s get back to the reports however, and we’ll see the profit in Q3 decreased by 42% compared to the previous quarter, although last year it was only by 16%.

In July, Amazon announced its new project, Delivery Service Partners (DSP), as mentioned earlier in one of our analytic reports. This led to the largest international postal operator’s decline. The project by Amazon enables starting your own shipping business under Amazon brand. This project is already working and the goods, despite the problems that arise, are being shipped. This means that FedEx and UPS are guaranteed to lose some of their income. In the long term, the development of DSP will create an even more serious competition against postal operators.

Amazon’s policy led to FedEx shares losing around 16%, after which the price tried to recover, but nothing came out of it, and now it’s trading around the year’s lows. Another negative fact is that the price went below the 200-day SMA, which last occurred in 2015. Last time, after the SMA breakout, the price fell by 36% from its highs. The last fall was accompanied with the largest trading volume over the last 2 years, which increases the likelihood of further price fall.

The nearest support is around $200. Further decline may be news-driven and come later, as it often happens. A short-term price increase to the resistance at $240 USD is possible, but after that, a rebound and a more serious price fall to $200 may follow. With larger volumes or a consolidation range, a reversal may occur.

To sum up

According to the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes, rate hikes are going to happen both this year and next. This will increase the cost of borrowed funds, which will lead to consolidation of the stock market and a possible sharp decline when approaching the highs. Some investors will close their positions on highs, trying to lock in as much profit as possible, after which they can move to less risky instruments such as bonds, whose yields will only increase with rate hikes.

Yet another crisis coming is often a surprise for investors, because usually everything starts with a small correction, which then rapidly develops into a market collapse and leads to a massive fall in stock prices. For this reason, investing in companies at current prices is not a good idea.

In this situation, it is best to look for small and unknown companies to buy, or to focus on those that are just starting their IPO’s.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboMarkets shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 15 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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