Connect with us

Analysis

Is This a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin?

Published

on

Bitcoin market cap

It is a difficult task to call a bottom when an asset class is in a downtrend. However, using technical analysis, we can at least try to get a rough idea about the levels that can offer a strong support. Please remember that when panic sets in the decline can easily overshoot on the downside. Therefore, traders should scale into the position instead of investing all the available money at once.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

Key points

  1. A fall to the 200-day EMA has proven to be a good long-term buying opportunity in the past two years.
  2. Traders can buy 25% of the desired allocation around the $8900 levels and keep a stop loss of $7400.
  3. Averaging down is not a good trading practice. Hence, fresh positions should be avoided if the price breaks down and sustains below the 200-day EMA.

What is our track record in picking tops and bottoms?

Calling a top is a very difficult task. We tried to call a top in Bitcoin on two occasions. The first call on November 27 proved to be wrong. We had expected a dip of about 30% from the highs to about $7,000 but Bitcoin only dipped to $8595.95 levels on November 29 and that too only during intraday.

Thereafter, Bitcoin continued its incessant run and we again made a call of a top on December 08, when it was trading just above $16,000 levels. The virtual currency topped out at $19891.99 levels on December 17. This call proved to be very close to the top. Traders who sold following our call would be sitting pretty with enough money to invest at lower levels.

So, is Bitcoin a good buy after falling more than 50% in about a month and a half? Let’s see.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Where should traders start buying?

In end-2015, the price broke above the 200-day EMA. Since then, there have been five dips to the 200-day EMA, which have proven to be a good long-term buying opportunity.

Currently, the 200-day EMA is placed at 8898. We believe that a retest of this level is likely to attract long-term buyers once again. Traders should wait and watch for about 4-hours to see whether the level is holding or not. If the level holds, 25% of the desired allocation in Bitcoin should be done around $8900 levels. The SL for this purchase should be kept at $7400 levels.

Remaining positions can be added when the cryptocurrency confirms a bottom.

We have used a log scale to fit the chart within the scale.

What are the supports in the short-term?

The current pullback is close to the 78.6% retracement level of the latest leg of the rally. We believe that the zone between $8900 and $8600 will act as a strong support zone.

However, if the bears breakdown and sustain below the 200-day EMA for three days, it will indicate weakness. The next level on the downside that can offer some support is $7500 to $7800.

We don’t advise averaging down. Traders should hold all their purchases as long as Bitcoin remains below the 200-day EMA. Long positions should again be initiated once the cryptocurrency confirms a bottom.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
29 votes, average: 4.93 out of 529 votes, average: 4.93 out of 529 votes, average: 4.93 out of 529 votes, average: 4.93 out of 529 votes, average: 4.93 out of 5 (29 votes, average: 4.93 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.7 stars on average, based on 9 rated postsRakesh Upadhyay is a Technical Analyst and Portfolio Consultant for The Summit Group. He has more than a decade of experience as a private trader. His philosophy is to use technical analysis for momentum trading and fundamental analysis for long-term positions. Rakesh likes to keep himself fit by lifting weights and considers himself to be a spiritual person.




Feedback or Requests?

12 Comments

12 Comments

  1. Gasface

    February 1, 2018 at 7:57 pm

    Good advice my friend. I also read all of your posts at coin telegraph and I always find your advice helpful.

    Thank you🙏

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      February 2, 2018 at 11:43 am

      Hello Gasface….

      Thank you.

  2. Brentc

    February 1, 2018 at 8:28 pm

    I find Rakesh to be the most knowledgeable in his ta. I only listen to this guy period. The one guy on here is a moron which I haven’t seen any more recommendations from lately.

    • MinerMatt17

      February 2, 2018 at 4:45 am

      Agreed

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      February 2, 2018 at 11:45 am

      Hello Brentc,

      We all try to provide the best recommendations, according to what we see on the charts. At times, we fail miserably. Some times we succeed. The strategy is to lose small and hold the winners.

  3. douglash

    February 2, 2018 at 2:26 am

    This is clear, concise, tradeable advice, which is often missing in Hacked TA signals. Of course, it remains to be seen if it’s correct, but at least it’s clear.

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      February 2, 2018 at 11:46 am

      Hello douglash,

      Thank you. We shall only know in hindsight if it was a correct call or not….

  4. Haspel

    February 2, 2018 at 11:32 am

    Weird that you write ‘we’ believe 8900-8600 will be a strong support zone and two hours later Mate Cser writes we should accumulate at 8200 and 7650. Don’t you guys talk to each other?

    • Rakesh Upadhyay

      February 2, 2018 at 11:51 am

      Hello Haspel,

      If you show the same chart to 100 technical analysts, all will have their own opinion on what are the levels to buy or sell at. The important take away here is that both me and Mate believe what Bitcoin is close to hitting a bottom.

      Neither me, nor Mate nor anyone in the world knows what will the exact bottom be.

      And, no, we don’t discus and provide the analysis because as a reader you should get both the versions. My assumption of a bottom in the range of $8600 to $8900 has proven wrong.

      So, now, we should wait for the decline to end and then start accumulating.

      So,

      • Haspel

        February 2, 2018 at 11:55 am

        Thank Rakesh. It’s just confusing for me to read such different opinions.

        I just read there was a big volume increase the last half hour. Could we’ve hit the bottom?

        • Rakesh Upadhyay

          February 2, 2018 at 12:09 pm

          Please don’t be confused….If you have any query, please ask us, we shall try to do our best to help you.

          Well, difficult to say. Please wait for some more time. Let’s at least stop making new lows on the 4-hourly chart. If Bitcoin sustains below the 200-day EMA for a long time, the weakness may persist.

          However, if you haven’t purchased any Bitcoin in this fall and are holding out to buy, you can start nibbling around the current levels. Say buy only about 20% of your total allocation that you have kept for Bitcoin and then wait.

          If Bitcoin falls, please hold your purchases. If it starts to recover, we can add to our positions.

          • Haspel

            February 2, 2018 at 12:20 pm

            👍🏻

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Analysis

Pre-Market: Turkish Lira Spooks Markets, as Dollar Still in Focus

Published

on

Stock markets are broadly lower today, as yesterday’s risk-off shift continues to dominate trading, with the Turkish currency woes, the Italian political standoff, and the weaker than expected European PMIs providing ample ammunition to bears.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While the post-crash period since early February had its ups-and-downs, the best way to describe it is still a simple consolidation. In the US, trading has been taking place mostly in the range of only two sessions in early February, and the S&P 500 is still stuck in the middle of that range.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Forex markets are in turmoil, as Dollar-centered trading continues across the board, and the hunting season for vulnerable emerging market currencies is still on. The recent strength in the reserve currency together with the rising yields sparked an exodus from more risky assets across the globe and with the Euro hitting another 6-month low today, the pressure will likely persist. Investors await tonight’s Fed meeting minutes which could make a huge impact on the Dollar and equities, especially if the central bank cools down rate hike expectations after the strong Dollar rally.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

First, it was Argentina, now it’s Turkey that’s in the center of attention, as the country plagued by a huge private Dollar debt load end rampant inflation is highly sensitive to rising rates and a weaker currency.

USD/TRY (Turkish Lira), Daily Chart Analysis

More experienced investors could have a strong feeling of déjà vu, as the Turkish leadership is blaming a concentrated attack against the country, while the market is waiting for the inevitable central bank intervention in the form of an emergency rate hike. For now, there is still hope that the storm will pass, but should an outright currency crisis break-out, rate hikes won’t be enough, and even capital controls will only provide a temporary solution, and a hard landing for the economy will be almost guaranteed.

Europe Also Down as Oil Pulls Back

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

European stocks which have been lifted by the falling Euro in recent weeks fell to two-week lows today, after the bearish PMI releases and the lower than expected British inflation figures. While the string of negative economic surprises continued, emerging market woes were largely ignored by investors so far, and the rising short-term trends are still mostly intact throughout the Old Continent.

Commodities are lower mixed amid the large currency moves, as the Dollar’s strength weighs on the whole asset class. Gold is still stuck below $1300 despite its recent resilience, while Oil is trading just off its highs, even as the OPEC is reportedly contemplating a supply increase following the “normalization” of oil prices. The cartel which, led by Saudi Arabia has openly been seeking higher prices

Featured image from Shutterstock            

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 255 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Lose Ground as Range Trading Continues

Published

on

While the weekend rally got bulls hope up that the consolidation phase might have ended, the technical setup hasn’t changed much in the segment, and today all of the major coins are lower again. The losses, which range from 2-5%, are not significant from a long-term standpoint, and most of the top coins are still clearly above the crucial support levels that mark the lower boundaries of the short-term trading ranges.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

With that in mind, traders still shouldn’t change their neutral stance, as there is no clear momentum present that would justify new positions here. Bitcoin continues to slightly outperform most altcoins today, but the divergence is not significant from a technical standpoint. Trading volumes continue to be well below the levels of the recent weeks, and that reinforces the bullish consolidation scenario.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD. Click here to change your current membership -- //

BTC drifted back below the key $8400-$8600 zone, and it remains stuck the lower boundary of the range today, despite its slight relative strength. As the short-term MACD indicator is neutral, and our trend model is also on a neutral signal, further choppy trading is likely ahead.  Short-term support is found near the intraday low, at $8150, with a stronger zone between $7650-$7800, with further resistance ahead between $9000 and $9200, $10,000, and $10,500.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is trading right at the center of the short-term range, as the coin gave back most of its weekend gains, while losing its relative strength in the process as well. The coin remains on a neutral short-term trend signal similarly to the broader market, with the price action still being consistent with an orderly correction. Resistance is ahead between $735 and $780, at $845 and $900, while support is found between $625 and $645 and between $555 and $575.

Tron Still Outperforms as Correlations Remain High

TRX/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Tron made the most progress among the op coins since bottoming out after the correction, and the coin remains bullish from a short-term perspective despite the current pullback. The $0.075 support/resistance level is in the center of attention, while the late-April high at $0.010 is the next target for the move. As the broader market remains in a corrective phase, but the coin is one of the prime candidates to hit a new high in the coming weeks.

Dash, Monero, Ripple, and Litecoin are still weaker than segment average, while the recently lagging IOTA held the key $1.7 level. For now, there is still no sign of a developing robust leadership, as EOS failed to regain its bullish momentum, and no major joined Tron in the rally.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
3 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 53 votes, average: 4.67 out of 5 (3 votes, average: 4.67 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.6 stars on average, based on 255 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Technical Analysis: Dow Jones Moves Toward Intermediate-Term Target, Closes above 25,000

Published

on

Technical Overview

  • On May 8, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on the verge of completing a 2-month bottoming pattern. On May 9, the index gave the buy signal with a minimum price target of 26,200 (1,300 points from the point of the breakout – white vertical trendline in Figure 1).
  • Last week’s advance fell less than 5 points short of the 25,000 level. The 8 EMA served as support during the subsequent correction (yellow line).
  • Today (May 21), the index jumped by nearly 300 points to close above 25,000 for the first time since March 13.
  • The Feb 9 & April 2 lows have created a tentative “double bottom” formation. The pattern will be completed if the index breaks above the pattern’s interim high (red horizontal trendline).

Major support levels:

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.
  • The 24,600 level (last week’s base).
  • The neckline of the inverse H&S pattern (white downward-sloping trendline, currently at 24,200).

Major resistance levels:

  • Double bottom interim high at 25,800 (red trendline).
  • Origin of February correction & January high – 26,400 to 26,617 range.

Figure 1. Dow Jones Industrial Average Daily Chart

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Implications

  • While the tech-heavy NASDAQ pulled back from its intraday high, DJIA continues to perform strongly, marching towards the upside target obtained from the H&S pattern.
  • In one trading session, the index made up for an entire week of sideways/corrective movement. Such price action is indicative of fast-moving markets, which are leaping towards a specific target. In this case, the completion of the inverse H&S is expected to continue driving the index higher at least until it retests the 25,800 level.
  • If the index moves above 25,800 the double bottom will be completed. A move above January’s high will further strengthen the bullish thesis and shift the long-term outlook to bullish.
  • Long positions in index-tracking ETFs and constituents recommended.

 Outlook

  • Short-term outlook as long as the index remains above its 8 EMA.
  • Intermediate-term bullish as long as the index remains above the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

Rate this post:

Important for improving the service. Please add a comment in the comment field below explaining what you rated and why you gave it that rate. Failed Trade Recommendations should not be rated as that is considered a failure either way.
0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 50 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5 (0 votes, average: 0.00 out of 5)
You need to be a registered member to rate this.
Loading...

4.8 stars on average, based on 12 rated postsPublished author of technical research. In his work on price “gaps”, published in the 2018 International Federation of Technical Analysts’ Annual Journal, he developed a new technical tool for analyzing and trading the “gap” phenomenon – the “K-Divergence” (http://ifta.org/public/files/journal/d_ifta_journal_18). Besides obtaining a Master in Financial Technical Analysis, he has completed a BBA and an MBA from the Schulich School of Business in Toronto and has completed all exams for the CFA, CMT and CFTe designations. Currently, providing research to investment management and financial advisory firms. http://www.linkedin.com/in/konstantindimov




Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

A part of CCN

Hacked.com is Neutral and Unbiased

Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

Trending