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Goldilocks and the Three Investors

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You may have heard a similar story before but I assure you this is something completely different.

There once was a young millennial named Goldilocks. One day she looked at her bank account and realized that the money sitting there was not earning her any interest and that due to inflation she was actually losing money every year.

So she naively wandered into the world of investments. A world that is full of hungry wolves who would just as soon eat Goldy than help her.

Finally, after a ton of research, she spotted a broker that she felt she could trust. But the broker had so many assets to trade that Goldy’s head started spinning as soon as she walked in the door.

First, she tried the cryptocurrencies. But this market was too young and way too volatile.

Next, she tried the stock markets. But the markets were way too high and Goldy had no way of getting into this market without grossly overpaying for the shares she wanted to buy.

Finally, she tried the bond markets. But the Fed had already bought all of the good bonds and there was nothing left at a reasonable price for poor Goldilocks.

I forget how the story ends but I hope it’ something along the lines of all the investors coming back to their senses, valuations slowly returning to normal, and Goldilocks living happily ever in peace and harmony with the financial markets.

Mati Greenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures, and graphs below are valid as of July 10th. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

Pheww. The G20 meetings are over without any drastic headlines. In fact, the leaders of the world seem to be surprisingly on the same page. They were even able to put out a unified statement.

The G20 reaffirmed their commitment to the Paris Climate Accords, even while noting the US’s planned departure from the deal. The statement contained no mention of North Korea. So it seems that issue is safely under the rug for now.

The Trump-Putin meeting produced some interesting headlines as well. Most notable, that Trump asked Putin if Russia interfered in the US elections. Putin said no. Some are now considering this issue as a closed case as well. Of course, we’ll wait until special investigator Robert Mueller gives the final word.

The Jobs Report last Friday was also quite eventful. The US economy managed to add an astonishing 222,000 jobs. The job market is certainly running hot at this point, some might say it’s running too hot.

The only issue is that despite the diminishing labor force wages don’t seem to be rising. Over the past year, average hourly wages grew by just 0.2%.

The market did much of nothing. First it went too high, then too low and ended up finding something that was just right… where it started.

The stocks on the other hand, were very happy about this report and we can see the Dow Jones rose sharply on the news.

Of course. it doesn’t take much to please the stock markets these days.

Gold reversal

According to an article on Bloomberg this morning, over the past month investors have gone from extremely bullish to extremely bearish.

The reason seems to be the expectations of rising rates in the United States. However, this doesn’t make much sense. The expectation of rising rates has been happening for months. It’s not some new piece of information that now needs to be priced in.

The following chart was posted by a guy named Mark Baillie and shows the price of gold over the last hundred years compared to the supply of US Dollars in the market.

So, it does appear that we’re seeing some sort of long-term divergence in the market over the past 4 years.

Less than $100B

The Crypto market is currently seeing the most pressure it’s seen since 2013, and arguably the most pressure ever as we see yet another completely red day for this industry.

Of the top 30 most valuable cryptos only 3 are currently in the green. This as the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies has dropped significantly below $100 Billion.

Still, if we look at the last three months it’s quite clear that we’re still up exponentially since April.

As with gold, one of the best strategies I’ve seen for the crypto markets is to think long term. Don’t be surprised or startled by short-term movements.

Buy low sell high, and always have sufficient diversity in your account.

Have an amazing week ahead!

This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation. 

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 122 rated postsSenior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.




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Altcoins

Cryptocurrency Rally Stalls as Bitcoin Price Hits Resistance

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Cryptocurrency prices were down across the board on Saturday, with bitcoin – the market’s biggest bellwether – stalling near a key  resistance.

Market Update

After reaching a high of $225.6 billion on Friday, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has fallen back to $211.3 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. The broad pullback was accompanied by only a minor dip in trading volumes, a sign that profit-taking was a factor.

Six of the top-ten coins (excluding Tether) had reported declines at the start of the weekend. Bitcoin was down 3.5% to trade at $6,355.00 on Bitfinex. The leading digital currency reached a high of $6,619, which is just shy of the most recent peak. Bitcoin’s market still exhibits strong trading volumes, with 24-hour turnover at $4.3 billion.

Among the major altcoins, Ethereum, Stellar Lumens, Litecoin and Cardano had each declined between 1.2% and 3.5%. On the opposite side of the spectrum, XRP, bitcoin cash and EOS had reported gains of at least 1.6%.

Bitcoin’s dominance rate, or the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market cap held in BTC, was 52%. Bitcoin accounted for as much as 54.5% of the total market capitalization earlier this week.

Dollar Factor?

The recent meltdown in cryptocurrencies originated 11 days ago when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it would delay a ruling on a highly anticipated bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). However, analysts have struggled to explain the extent of the selloff – namely, the $35 billion plunge between Aug. 10-13.

According to eToro analyst and Hacked contributor Mati Greenspan, a surging U.S. dollar may have contributed to the decline. As CCN reports, the cryptocurrency market’s movements this week have been highly correlated with fluctuations in emerging-market currencies. Emerging-market exchange rates have been rocked by contagion fears emanating from Turkey’s political crisis, which have boosted demand for the U.S. dollar. As Hacked reported Friday, the U.S. dollar index recent hit more than one-year highs.

“As the United States moves to tighten its economy and avoid strong inflation, they’re taking action that is strengthening the Dollar. Because the US Dollar is the global reserve currency, many smaller economies rely heavily on a stable exchange rate with the greenback,” Greenspan wrote. “So too, as the Dollar is being seen as a stable store of value at the moment, there really isn’t much incentive for people to store their money in digital assets.”

Bitcoin is generally viewed as a non-correlated asset, which means it enjoys unique price independence when comparted with traditional markets. Correlation, when it does occur, is often driven by the erroneous belief that bitcoin is associated with the broader market. This was observed earlier this year when bitcoin seemingly fell in lockstep with the U.S. stock market.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 551 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Cryptocurrencies

2018 Crypto Exchange Trading Revenue Poised to Double to $4 Billion: Bernstein

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For the most part, the cryptocurrency markets have been operating on all cylinders year-to-date with the exception of one very important metric — price. And now that the bitcoin price appears to have found its footing, today’s slip to $6,410 notwithstanding, that component of the market appears to be cooperating, too. Wall Street research firm Bernstein is acknowledging the industry’s impact, predicting that cryptocurrency exchange revenue may grow more than twofold versus year-ago levels to some $4 billion.

The Bernstein report, as cited in Bloomberg, is entitled: “Crypto Trading — The Next Big Thing Is Here?” The title alone reflects a more open-minded if not sanguine take on the cryptocurrency market, more specifically speculative trading. Last year, leading crypto exchanges generated $1.8 billion in transaction fees, which according to the Sanford analysts is 8% of what Wall Street exchanges made. Based on this metric of transaction fees, cryptocurrency trading was second only to global cash equities.

Courtesy: Bloomberg

The outlook may seem shocking, considering that the bitcoin price is down more than 60% from last year’s peak. But leading cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume Binance, which boasts millions of users, tipped its hand to balance sheet strength. The exchange’s CEO CZ recently provided an outlook, saying the company was on track to deliver record profits this year of as much as $1 billion, as CCN previously reported.  On the low end of its range, Binance is looking at $500 million.

Advantage Goes to Coinbase

Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts are quick to point out that Wall Street banks have largely been on the sidelines of crypto, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan’s crypto trading and blockchain investments notwithstanding. As a result, the could find themselves in an unusual competitive position where crypto exchanges like Coinbase dominate market share. Coinbase already boasts some “50% of the transaction revenue pool,” according to Bloomberg, and fears of fraud coupled with a murky regulatory climate hold the big banks at bay.

“As the crypto-asset class seasons and institutional demand builds, there are a plethora of opportunities for traditional firms,” according to Bernstein analysts, who then pointed to examples across custody, portfolio management and making markets, for instance.

Indeed, the persistent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, particularly in the bitcoin price, has had observers wondering how crypto exchanges could offset the damage. After all, they generate revenue based on trading volume.

Exchanges like Coinbase have been adding coins, most recently Ethereum Classic (ETC) but they’ve got several more altcoins waiting in the wings that they’re looking to support. While Coinbase officials have stated that these new altcoin additions are in response to trader demand, it’s also a way for them to continue to collect trading revenues while the bitcoin price has been stalled. Binance, meanwhile, whose trading volume hovers at approximately $1.4 billion in the last 24 hours, supports hundreds of altcoins.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 39 rated postsGerelyn has been covering ICOs and the cryptocurrency market since mid-2017. She's also reported on fintech more broadly in addition to asset management, having previously specialized in institutional investing. She owns some BTC and ETH.




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Altcoins

Encrypgen Beta Launch Sends Token Soaring

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Encrypgen (DNA) provides customers and partners best-in-class, next generation, blockchain security for protecting, sharing and re-marketing genomic data. Although the company has only been around for a few years, it appears to be a major player in the genomic blockchain security space. Security breaches at Ancestry.com and privacy concerns at 23andMe have created a void that Encrypgen hopes to fill.

Price Action

Earlier this week, Encrypgen reached a significant milestone after launching its Gene-Chain beta platform. DNA token is soaring by 20% since the announcement on Wednesday evening.

Encrypgen Price Chart

Encrypgen is far ahead of schedule since the initial expectation was the end of August. The company expects the final live version of the Gene-Chain to be available by the end of September. DNA is a utility token so platform usage will determine its value. DNA is inching its way closer to the finish line and traders appear to be backing it.

Since August 1, DNA is one of the best performing ERC20 tokens. I created a list of the top 50 ERC20 tokens and analyzed their returns since August 1. None of them have a positive return. In comparison, DNA has generated a 7% return during the same period. While the return is negligible compared to the fall 2017, it’s still a positive development. Especially since the price rise coincides with a major development milestone.

Encrypgen Value Proposition

Genetics is playing an increasingly pivotal role in the world of drug discovery. Researchers use genetic data to help them understand how diseases start and how they progress. One of the main reasons that Encrypgen caught my attention is that it is attempting to fill a real world void as a few of the largest non-crypto companies are facing serious issues. Two of those companies are Ancestry.com and 23andMe.

Ancestry.com is the most popular genealogical and family tree tracking company. Unfortunately, it appears that popularity comes at a cost. In December, a server on the company’s RootsWeb service exposed a file that has usernames, email addresses and passwords of 300,000 registered users. The stolen information was then leaked and posted online in plain text.

Another popular company in the industry, 23andMe, has its own issues regarding privacy. Lawmakers and consumers are expressing concern regarding privacy after a consumer submits their genetic test to the company. This is especially true in light of the recent $300 million collaboration deal that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) struck with 23andMe.

Encrypgen’s Gene-Chain platform appears to be the answer to the problem. Consumers will be able to upload their genetic data via Encrypgen’s secure portal which then goes into the company’s database. That data will then be secured with the company’s Gene-Chain. One of the most interesting parts is that consumers get paid when researchers want to purchase their data. According to a recent article from Reuters, consumers can expect an average payment of $130 each time that researchers buy their data. This is an excellent way for consumers to generate passive income.

Conclusion

Investors need to keep their eyes on Encrypgen as the company finalizes its Gene-Chain platform. With the recent price action, the coming catalysts, and the compelling value proposition, the DNA token may be one to begin accumulating.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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