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Going down a Stronger Path

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Going down a Stronger Path

Introduction

This article was posted on Friday, 11:34, UTC.

In one of the biggest turnaround stories in history, it appears that Russia is about to legalize and regulate the Cryptocurrency markets.

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This very sudden change of stance comes shortly after Vladimir Putin had a brief meeting with Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin at a major economic event in Russia, with some very important people in attendance.

The news gets even better. Not only does Russia intend to regulate bitcoin and Ethereum, at a later stage they even intend to oversee the tricky ICO markets in which new cryptos are created.

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Exciting times indeed.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of July 21st. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

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Market Overview

The market reaction to Mario Draghi’s speech yesterday was indeed a surprise, even to Mario Draghi.

Though he was trying really hard to keep his cards close to his chest and not give away his future moves, investors saw right through his poker face and used the speech as confirmation bias of current theories, that the ECB is right in the middle of a taper but won’t admit it.

Draghi did his best to project that the ECB has no immediate plans to wind down the massive stimulus package and even left the door open to increase it later but he could not hide the fact that the economy is indeed going down a stronger path.

In today’s currency wars most economies, including the Euro, are trying to maintain a weak currency to promote exports. The surge in the Euro over the past 24 hours was almost certainly not what Mr. Draghi was going for.

The EURUSD is now about 60 pips away from its strongest level since January of 2015 (yellow line).

On the other hand, Mario probably shouldn’t get all the credit for this move. The Euro strength is also a factor of President Trump crashing the Buck.

At this point, the US Dollar really needs a stronger path…

Bitcoin’s Path

Following last week’s update entitled “Bitcoin’s Brexit Moment,” it seems we have some important progress.

Last night, miners have signaled very strongly to implement SegWit. The headlines today read that BIP91 is locked in!!

Let’s refer back to the flowchart that we posted showing the possible paths.

Link to image: http://imgur.com/a/0nWwn

What this update means is that the BIP148 side is far less likely. From here the most likely path is either down, to implement SegWit with a soft fork, or to the left, implementing SegWit2x with a hard fork to increase the block sizes.

Now, just because miners are signaling for BIP91 is still not a guarantee that it’s going to happen. There are a large number of obstacles in the way and the path is still far from clear. However, at this point, we have a lot more clarity than we did 24 hours ago.

The effect on the price is quite clear. Bitcoin surged on the news coming close to its all time highest level due to the increased amount of clarity to the situation. In fact, over the past week, Bitcoin has erased virtually all of the losses that it saw since the peak on June 12th.

This is the magic of Crypto.

Wishing you an amazing weekend.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be a investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

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Feedback or Requests?

Mati Greenspan

Mati Greenspan

https://www.etoro.com/

Senior Market Analyst at Etoro.com.

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