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Going down a Stronger Path

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In one of the biggest turnaround stories in history, it appears that Russia is about to legalize and regulate the Cryptocurrency markets.

This very sudden change of stance comes shortly after Vladimir Putin had a brief meeting with Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin at a major economic event in Russia, with some very important people in attendance.

The news gets even better. Not only does Russia intend to regulate bitcoin and Ethereum, at a later stage they even intend to oversee the tricky ICO markets in which new cryptos are created.

Exciting times indeed.

@MatiGreenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of July 21st. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Market Overview

The market reaction to Mario Draghi’s speech yesterday was indeed a surprise, even to Mario Draghi.

Though he was trying really hard to keep his cards close to his chest and not give away his future moves, investors saw right through his poker face and used the speech as confirmation bias of current theories, that the ECB is right in the middle of a taper but won’t admit it.

Draghi did his best to project that the ECB has no immediate plans to wind down the massive stimulus package and even left the door open to increase it later but he could not hide the fact that the economy is indeed going down a stronger path.

In today’s currency wars most economies, including the Euro, are trying to maintain a weak currency to promote exports. The surge in the Euro over the past 24 hours was almost certainly not what Mr. Draghi was going for.

The EURUSD is now about 60 pips away from its strongest level since January of 2015 (yellow line).

On the other hand, Mario probably shouldn’t get all the credit for this move. The Euro strength is also a factor of President Trump crashing the Buck.

At this point, the US Dollar really needs a stronger path…

Bitcoin’s Path

Following last week’s update entitled “Bitcoin’s Brexit Moment,” it seems we have some important progress.

Last night, miners have signaled very strongly to implement SegWit. The headlines today read that BIP91 is locked in!!

Let’s refer back to the flowchart that we posted showing the possible paths.

Link to image: http://imgur.com/a/0nWwn

What this update means is that the BIP148 side is far less likely. From here the most likely path is either down, to implement SegWit with a soft fork, or to the left, implementing SegWit2x with a hard fork to increase the block sizes.

Now, just because miners are signaling for BIP91 is still not a guarantee that it’s going to happen. There are a large number of obstacles in the way and the path is still far from clear. However, at this point, we have a lot more clarity than we did 24 hours ago.

The effect on the price is quite clear. Bitcoin surged on the news coming close to its all time highest level due to the increased amount of clarity to the situation. In fact, over the past week, Bitcoin has erased virtually all of the losses that it saw since the peak on June 12th.

This is the magic of Crypto.

Wishing you an amazing weekend.

This content is provided for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered to be a investment advice or recommendation.

The outlook presented is a personal opinion of the analyst and does not represent an official position of eToro.

Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading involves risk; only risk capital you are prepared to lose.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Zcash Price Analysis: ZEC/USD Penetrating Vital Resistance, Which is Key for Greater Upside

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  • Zcash has remained elevated over the past few days, as a result of potential speculation across the social media space regarding a Coinbase listing.
  • ZEC/USD bulls must break down supply area heading into $140, to unlock chunky buying pressure.

ZEC/USD bulls have been pressing hard to break above the very stubborn resistance, which is seen just above the $140 price territory. For going on six sessions now, the price has failed to clear the above supply area. It is seen tracking from $138 up to $140. ZEC/USD has not been above this territory since 28th September. There has been much penetration of this, which very well could suggest a strong breakout to come.

Zcash Speculation

Efforts by Coinbase to expand its offering has raised speculation that ZEC may be due for consideration. As recently reported, the largest U.S exchange, announced the listing of Basic Attention Token (BAT) on its trading platform and apps. Elsewhere, they opened the doors for trading 0x (ZRX), which was the first ERC-20 token to have been listed on the platform. Given these moves, there has been continued speculation across the social media space regarding possible listing of Zcash along with the likes of Cardano (ADA), and Stellar (XLM).

Technical Review – ZEC/USD

ZEC/USD daily chart

The ZEC/USD bulls are having a hard time, as their rallies continue to be short-lived due to repetitive failure to breach key resistance. On each occasion the price has entered the detailed supply area, heading into $140, it has been sent back south by some force. It could very well be that ZEC/USD is moving within consolidation mode, after the chunky recent surge. The bulls had seen a decent run from October 31st. Gains seen within this period were a chunky 20%.

Support Levels

Looking to the downside, a decent level of daily support can be eyed just sub-$128. During the current form of consolidation eyed, this area has proven to be of use. Further south, eyes would be back on the breached pennant pattern. This is where ZEC/USD began its most recent forceful upside trend. The price had managed to catch some bidding at the lower part of the pattern to then see a breakout to the upside. A potential pullback to the pennant could see the price around $118.

Upside Targets

Should the market bulls manage to gather enough upside momentum, eyes will be on another retest of the supply heading into $140. A breach above will likely see the price heading for another supply zone, observed at $145. ZEC/USD last traded here on 28th September, before resuming its downward trend. Further north, the highs seen early September within the $160 territory. Lastly, any move above here, could likely see some strong buying pressure, with a fast move back into $200.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 49 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Bitcoin Cash Continues To Drop Ahead Of The Hard Fork

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The past few months have been really quiet in the crypto world.  Traders are used to dealing with big stories and big drama.  And while there hasn’t been much drama over the past few months, that’s all about to change.  Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has had a crazy 30 days of trading ahead of its scheduled hard fork on November 15.

For a while, it appeared that BCH would be trading near a high as the fork commenced.  BCH had a strong rally for about a week starting on November 1.  The price soared by more than 50% as it reached its high of approximately $637.  But over the past week, the price has been tanking and doesn’t show any signs of recovering.  Since November 7, BCH has dropped in value by more than 20%.

Why Is Bitcoin Cash Falling Ahead of the Fork?

There are two possible explanations for why Bitcoin Cash is dropping ahead of the scheduled hard fork.  One reason is profit taking.  Although a 50% return wouldn’t have meant much in 2017, it certainly is a lot in 2018.  However, a second and potentially more troubling reason is the conflict between Bitcoin Cash SV and Bitcoin Cash ABC.

Craig Wright, an Australian computer scientist and the biggest proponent of Bitcoin Cash SV (BCHSV), appears to be at war with Roger Ver, the most famous name behind Bitcoin Cash ABC (BCHABC).  Wright was in the news recently after proclaiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the founding father of Bitcoin (BTC).

As of this writing, BCHABC is trading at $420 while BCHSV is trading at $118.  According to Coin Dance, data shows that a majority of hash power favors SV.  On the other hand, there are significantly more BCHABC nodes running on the Bitcoin Cash network than there are BCHSV nodes.  Although it’s interesting to look at this data, it’s quite simply impossible to determine what this means as far as which network will come out victorious.  Creating a BTC node is relatively inexpensive so a user could start several of them for under $1,000.  And while the hash rate is important for demonstrating PoW (proof-of-work), it’s meaningless if exchanges don’t accept the coin.

Bitfinex Support

On November 12, Bitfinex announced support for the Bitcoin Cash hard fork.  On the exchange’s twitter handle, they tweeted, “We are happy to provide full support for the upcoming Bitcoin Cash hard fork.”  While the support is certainly helpful for traders, Bitfinex wouldn’t commit to choosing a side.  Instead, the exchange said, “At the time of writing, we do not believe that there is sufficient consensus to identify a clear winner in the Bitcoin Cash hard fork.”  Bitfinex expects to release an additional statement on November 16.  Traders should certainly pay attention to that as it could be material.

Final Thoughts

There is an incredible amount of information to digest regarding the hard fork.  As of this writing, it’s unclear which side will prevail as both certainly have their positives and negatives.  Given the recent slide of Bitcoin Cash, BCH holders should certainly be paying very close attention as the hard fork nears.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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TRON Price Analysis: TRX/USD Posts Longest Daily Losing Streak in 15 Weeks

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  • TRX/USD stuck within a stubborn downward trend, running at 7 consecutive sessions of losses.
  • Price faced a strong rejection after retesting and failing to break back above breached trend line.
  • Bulls will look to find some ground at below strong daily support areas, before firm committed bull run.

Stubborn Downward Trend

TRXUSD daily support

TRX/USD has been cooling for going on 7 sessions now, running currently at consecutive daily closes in the red. The price entered this stubborn downtrend on 7th November. TRX/USD bulls had initially retested a breached ascending trend line that was supporting the price initially. The mentioned supported had been running from 12th September until a firm breach and close below by the bears on 29th October. This left the door open for the market bears to capitalize.

Given this current run of consecutive losses, it is the longest daily run in the red since the back-end of July – early August. The price from 30th July underwent 6 sessions in negative territory, falling around 27% until a small bounce on 5th August. In terms of percentage loss on this current fall observed, it is running at 11% over the 7 sessions at the time of writing. The market will be looking to find a bottom over the coming sessions.

Downside Support

There are some key areas to note for TRX/USD, ahead of potentially giving up on the $0.020000 territory. The next major level of daily support can be seen at $0.021400; this is the low of 31st October. It is significant as the bulls staged a rebound here. TRX/USD entered into a short-term bull run, seeing strong gains up until 6th November. The percentage gain within the mentioned period, was seen at a solid 16%, seeing 6 out of 7 daily closes in the green.

Further to the south, another level worthy noting, would be $0.020700 – a strong daily support level, most recently between 11-12 October. This is where the price initially jeopardized the above-mentioned trend line. Firm buying kicked in down here, to see the bulls drive the price back up to the $0.02800 territory. A strong area of supply can be seen here, as has been demonstrated since the back-end of August.

Upside Targets

Once the bulls manage to find their feet again, the first target would be for a retest of the breached ascending trend line. This is currently tracking at $0.026000; TRX/USD has not been this high since 17th October. Looking further to the north, the mentioned supply zone would be seen just ahead tracking from $0.027000-0.028000. It is also worth considering that this is the upper part of the current range. TRX/USD has not been above this for over 15 weeks now.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 49 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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