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Global Shifts

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The future is rapidly moving towards us. At this very moment, dozens of new apps are being developed that rely on blockchain technology, most of them based on the Ethereum network.

Last night a new project called Brave Browser created a new token called BAT (Basic Attention Token). This new browser is being developed by Mozilla co-founder Brendan Eich.

The new BAT tokens sold out in just 24 seconds raising about 156,000 ETH (about $36 Million) for the new startup.

Though this was one of the most successful ICOs (Initial Coin Offering) to date, we anticipate that the rate of such events will only grow as the Internet migrates to decentralized applications.

Mati Greenspan
eToro, Senior Market Analyst

 

Please note: All data, figures & graphs are valid as of June 1st. Al trading carries risk. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Has globalization really peaked?

We’ll get a big hint today. President Donald Trump will announce his decision on the Paris Climate agreement at 3:00 PM New York time.

President Obama was a big part of the COP 21 Paris Climate Convention where global leaders made a monumental pact to cap global emissions. Donald Trump isn’t too fond of this and has vowed to back out of the agreement. According to his Twitter feed, the decision is imminent.

Some of Trump’s top advisors have urged the President not to renege on this one but at the moment we have no indication what the announcement will be.

Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of China, Mr. Li Keqiang, will be visiting Brussels today with the goal of making the world more connected. The One Belt One Road project has been a favorite of President Xinping to connect global supply lines with better infrastructure.

What about Brexit?

But perhaps the most titanic test of globalization will come from the UK. The general elections will be in exactly one week and the situation seems to be deteriorating by the minute.

According to the latest polls, Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party now trails Theresa May by just 3 points!!

Of course, we know that the UK polls are not always the most accurate but for the first time, the media is asking, what if they actually win?

Well, most likely Brexit will still happen. Following the referendum last June, and the trigger of Article 50 in March, it is now seen by most as the will of the people and an irreversible decision. However, under Labour leadership, it will no doubt be a more soft exit than the one planned by May.

Market Overview

Many markets remain stagnant. Volatility ticked up a bit yesterday as Wall Street returned from their long weekend but the VIX volatility index still remains muted at 10.41.

The Asian session is looking pretty upbeat with stocks in Japan, China, and Australia all firmly in the green.

All investors are still watching the price of Crude Oil intently as the global oversupply remains a major concern. Yesterday, the price failed to climb above $50.50 a barrel (blue line) and subsequently slipped to lows below $48 (white circle) before recovering.

The Crude Oil inventories will be released this afternoon and could have a fair impact on the price, depending on the result of course.

Crypto Watch (technical analysis)

The Cryptocurrencies remain volatile. Some traders are expecting a major pullback and some are betting the farm that we’re about to shoot to the moon.

Bitcoin did break above $2350 this morning (dotted yellow line). Certainly a positive sign but the period of a clear trajectory towards the sky is still in question. We can expect heavy resistance around the 2500 to 2600 region (blue square).

Ethereum, on the other hand, seems to have built itself a nice solid support line on the short term chart…

Let’s have an awesome day ahead!

This content is for information and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or an investment recommendation.
Past performance is not an indication of future results. All trading carries risk. Only risk capital you’re prepared to lose.

Best regards,

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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  1. rtacconi

    June 1, 2017 at 6:11 pm

    I am still seeing a lot of speculation and volatility, still, the potential is of Ethereum is great.

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Altcoins

Volatile and Illiquid; Aurora (AOA) Backtracks 55% After Recent Gains

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Aurora (AOA) has proved one of the most illiquid and yet most most volatile cryptocurrencies in the market cap top one-hundred in the past week; gaining 409%, and then losing half of it all within the space of seven days.

All of this activity originated on just one exchange, Kucoin. That is unless you count the five dollars worth of AOA tokens traded on Bitinka. Wednesday morning’s snapshot shows a coin that has endured a +450% swing in the past week – fuelled by a community social media bounty and a rather bold piece of hype-making by the Aurora Twitter team.

AOA Sinks 55% After 409% Gains

From September 12th’s low of $0.008640, AOA tokens surged off of Kucoin’s BTC and ETH buys up to September 17th’s token price of $0.044022 – marking 409% gains over five days. The majority of this activity was founded on less than a million dollars worth of trades, with AOA volumes almost quadrupling from the $280,000 range, up to around $920,000 on Sept 17th.

What took five days to build was then destroyed in less than two, as AOA plunged by 55% down to this morning’s valuation of $0.019418. The previous week’s surge had triggered several articles speculating on the promise of the Aurora platform, but ultimately the skeptics were correct and what went up predictably came back down.

The brief but effective piece of market making has undoubtedly seen a small number of traders take huge profits on Kucoin in the past week. The majority are likely nursing double-digit losses this morning after the sell-off over the last two days.

Hype Triggers Trades

As covered here in the run up to AOA’s recent peak, the Aurora community had been engaged in a social media bounty campaign to celebrate the launch of their new Berlin office.

The increased flurry of online activity likely acted as a trigger for the the week’s market making, and may have been helped along by this teasing image by the Aurora Twitter team. The image shows Aurora’s logo floating above a pair of smartphones, accompanied by the text:

“Faster TPS is just the beginning. #Aurora #AOA #Apple.

As far as I’m aware, Aurora has not yet partnered with the world’s first trillion dollar company. The image could be relating to an upcoming app that may be available for use by Apple phones, but the Aurora team remain tight-lipped at the moment, preferring to allow the speculation and chatter do its job.

It has been a frantic start for a token that only launched in June. The Kucoin listing only arrived towards the end of August, and we may be witnessing the turmoils of a newly launched token still attempting to find its value.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 58 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Remains Weak Despite Ripple’s Surge

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Ripple made headlines today in the cryptocurrency segment, as the third largest coin jumped by more than 15% after trading in a narrow range for several days. Most of the major coins joined the rally, but the gains were muted and the technical setup remained unchanged in most cases, with the long-term outlook still being bearish, while the short-term picture remaining mixed.

Ethereum, which has been in the center of the trends in the segment for weeks rallied back above $200, but stayed below the recent swing high, leaving several questions unanswered concerning the short-term trend. Bitcoin also got stuck near the $6275 level yet again, and the total value of the market is still below the $200 billion mark, with still no clear signs of major capital inflows in the segment.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum quickly recovered above $200 after dipping below the weekend lows yesterday in late trading, retaining the short-term buy signal in our trend model. That said the coin still needs to show stronger bullish momentum to avoid a resumption of the clearly declining long-term trend. As sustained dip below $200 would still warn of a move to last week’s lows, while a move above $235 would open up the way towards $260 and the confluence resistance near $275.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been showing weakness in the last couple of days, and although the coin is still on a short-term buy signal, similarly to Ethereum, a quick recovery above $6500 would be needed to avoid a bearish turn.

Traders should hold on to their positions here, but given the still bearish segment-wide trends, we still don’t advise full positions even in the stronger coins. Below $6275, weaker support is found at $6000, close to the key long-term zone near $5850, while resistance is ahead at $6500, $6750, and $7000.

Ripple Needs Follow Through For a Buy Signal

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While today’s spike in Ripple is encouraging, the coin needs to show further signs of strength, as the recent sudden spikes in the majors were quickly sold as the bearish trend remained dominant in the segment.

With that in mind, despite the broken resistance levels, XRP remains on a neutral short-term signal in our trend model, while still being bearish from a long-term perspective. The coin is currently trading right at the $0.32 level, with support found at $0.3130, $0.30 and near $0.30, while strong resistance is ahead at $0.35.

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash is among the stronger coins from a short-term technical standpoint, trading in a bullish consolidation pattern just below the key $200 level. That said, the coin failed to show strength today amid Ripple’s rally, and that still points to a dominant bearish trend in the segment. With that in mind, traders should wait for further positive signs before entering new positions, especially since a bullish leadership still hasn’t developed.

IOT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

IOTA is still weaker than average, together with NEO, EOS, and ETC, and the coin is still just above the August lows, clearly being in a broad downtrend, despite holding up above the lower boundary of its short-term range. A test of the lows is likely in the coming weeks, and the coin remains on sell signals on both time-frames, with support found between $0.455 and $0.475, and near $0.405, and with key resistance ahead near $0.57 and $0.64.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Altcoins

Bitcoin, Ether and Ripple Up in the Air as SEC Delivers a Sobering Reminder

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The U.S Securities and Exchange Commission just delivered a sobering reminder to the crypto community regarding the legal status of Bitcoin and Ethereum. SEC Director of the Division Corporation Finance William Hinman originally told a San Francisco conference in June that:

“…based on my understanding of the present state of Ether, the Ethereum network and its decentralized structure, current offers and sales of Ether are not securities transactions. And, as with Bitcoin, applying the disclosure regime of the federal securities laws to current transactions in Ether would seem to add little value.”

SEC Clarifies Crypto Security Stance

Today the SEC Chairman Jay Clayton released this official statement in which he reminded everyone that media statements made by SEC personnel should not be taken as legal pronouncements. Clayton stated:

“The Commission’s longstanding position is that all staff statements are nonbinding and create no enforceable legal rights or obligations of the Commission or other parties.”

In a particular sentence that may have been included specifically to cool the enthusiasm generated from his colleague Hinman’s original statement, Clayton states:

“…our divisions and offices, including but not limited to the Division of Corporation Finance, the Division of Investment Management and the Division of Trading and Markets, have been and will continue to review whether prior staff statements and staff documents should be modified, rescinded or supplemented in light of market or other developments.”

The last part about ‘modifying, rescinding or supplementing’ future documents suggests that the SEC are starting to worry about the effects their own words have on the very market they’re attempting to regulate.

When the original statement by Hinman hit the headlines in June, Bitcoin immediately surged by around 6%. Ethereum benefitted even more from the news and spiked 10% within the space of an hour.

Consequences for Bitcoin, Ether and Alts

The reminder from the SEC is unlikely to affect the average bag-holder, who in all likelihood disregards much of what comes out of such traditional institutions as the SEC. The news is more likely to strike hesitation into the minds of large-scale, corporate investors who thought all of this uncertainty was already behind them.

It could also spell either good or bad news for Ripple, which is currently fighting five lawsuits – including two federal lawsuits – against claims that its token sale represents a security issuance.

Director Hinman’s original statement back in June suggested that decentralization was key to avoiding being classed as a security. He suggested that coins and tokens from centralized blockchains would have a harder time with the SEC:

“Over time, there may be other sufficiently decentralized networks and systems where regulating the tokens or coins that function on them as securities may not be required. And of course there will continue to be systems that rely on central actors whose efforts are a key to the success of the enterprise. In those cases, application of the securities laws protects the investors who purchase the tokens or coins.”

With XRP being the third largest capped coin in existence, its prominence has made it a prime target for those suspicious of the currency’s relationship to the Ripple company. As the lawsuits began to pile up, many began to question what Hinman’s words would mean for XRP.

Today’s clarification by Chairman Clayton could be seen as a reprieve for XRP, as it essentially shelves the decentralization issue for the time being. On the other hand, it could mean that even if XRP is proved to be wholly decentralized, it may have even larger requirements to fill before gaining a positive classification – as could the rest of the entire crypto market.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 58 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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