GBP/USD Price Prediction: GBP/USD Pump and Dump Eyed

  • GBP/USD has been rallying heading into the crucial vote on Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the EU.
  • Markets could very well be making room for a big sell-off, depending on the outcome.

Markets Expect PM May to Fail

GBP/USD surprisingly has been making its way north, as the price on Friday made one final big push for the week. This comes despite the crucial vote on Tuesday 15th January, where UK parliament will vote on PM May’s EU deal. It appears the market is strongly anticipating the Prime Minister will lose this. As a result, the case for this is already being priced in.

Despite the fact the markets are expecting this sort of outcome, there could still very well be room for a large fall for GBP. This rally being observed may be the pump, making room ahead of it encountering a large dump. In terms of this type of behavior it has been seen time and time again ahead of big market moving events.

In these heightened times of uncertainty, both economically and politically, GBP/USD has still managed to close in the green for four weeks running. It has moved to its highest levels seen since week of 26th November. This has been the longest weekly run observed for the pair, going back as far as August 2018.

Key Technical Levels

GBP/USD 4-hour chart.

Looking via the 4-hour chart view, an ascending channel formation can be eyed, which has been in play since 11th December. Despite the freak mini touted flash crash on 2nd January that rippled the markets, GBP/USD has respected this pattern. The price has been grinding higher within this, having gained almost 400 pips.

The bull run on Friday was capped by the upper acting trend line, which is tracking at 1.2860-70. It did print its highest level since 22nd November in that latest squeeze higher. Given the further wave of uncertainty that will hit the market next week, the price will likely continue to respect this channel. Keeping in mind the recent rejection on Friday, price pressures to the downside could be eyed at the open. Support levels to note via the 4-hour; 1.2770, 1.2716 and then 1.2660.

GBP/USD weekly chart.

In terms of the weekly chart, should the bulls intend to resume the upside pressure, they will need to break down 1.2870. This is a resistance area and a break and close above can open the door for a return to the psychological 1.3000 mark. To the downside, big weekly levels to note are 1.2770 and 1.2660. Any failure of those mentioned holding, then a fast move back south to a demand zone tracking from 1.25-1.2400 is to be expected.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

 

 

Author:
Ken has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.