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Analysis

French election Update: Markets Poised for Moderate Gains as Macron, Le Pen In front

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The previously most likely scenario looks to be playing out in the first round of the French presidential election, as Marine Le Pen and Emmanuelle Macron are ahead in early polls and projections. The “horror-scenario” is increasingly unlikely, as Melenchon is trailing Fillon for the third place. Although Le Pen might have a chance against Macron or Fillon, preliminary studies showed that the moderate and independent Macron and the Fillon will likely defeat the far-right and anti-EU candidate.

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Exit Poll Results (Macron, Le Pen, Fillon, Melenchon, Hamon) (source: Europe Elects)

Markets will likely open higher if the early projections prove accurate, as risk-on assets, especially in Europe, could start a relief rally on Monday. The Euro and the Great British Pound could gain against the Yen and the Dollar, while global stock markets expected to open higher, with gold probably taking a slight hit.

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Poll Date Macron Le Pen
Odoxa 21-Apr 62.00% 38.00%
Ifop-Fiducial 18–21 Apr 2017 60.50% 39.50%
Odoxa 20-Apr 65.00% 35.00%
Elabe 19–20 Apr 2017 65.00% 35.00%
OpinionWay 18–20 Apr 2017 64.00% 36.00%
Harris 18–20 Apr 2017 67.00% 33.00%
Ifop-Fiducial 17–20 Apr 2017 61.00% 39.00%
Harris 18–19 Apr 2017 66.00% 34.00%

Latest Macron – Le Pen projections (source: Bloomberg)

The second round of the referendum will be held in two weeks time, and barring an unlikely strong rise in Le Pen’s popularity, financial markets shouldn’t be affected that much by it, with the latest polls suggesting a 20 percentage-point lead for Macron against Le Pen, and Fillon already endorsing Macron after seeing the preliminary results. As Le Pen has a large, but rigid voter base, it’s hard to imagine that protest voters could turn the race around in the second round.

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Ershad

    April 23, 2017 at 10:32 pm

    Hi Mate,

    Thanks for your article, I wanted to ask if gold was going to take a hit, what price should we be watching for?

    Kind regards
    Ershad

    • Mate Cser

      April 23, 2017 at 11:13 pm

      Hi Ershad,

      the $1262 and $1240 (less likely) levels could be in play. The long-term uptrend is safe for now, so this correction could lead to a good buying opportunity!

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Flirts with $8000 as Altcoin Bull Persists

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Bitcoin’s swift recovery was the main topic of the week, as the most valuable coin not just regained its steep losses, but hit a marginal new high towards the end of the period. The entire segment is experiencing capital inflows as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever after finally leaving the vicinity of the $200 billion mark.

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BTC breached the $8000 level before turning slightly lower on Friday, but despite the severely overbought daily chart, it is still trading near its all-time highs. As the long-term picture still suggests a deeper correction, investors should wait with opening new positions and traders should also control position sizes here. Key support levels are found at $7700, $7000, and $6700, while the recent key break-out level at $5000 still hasn’t been re-tested.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Dash is still the most bullish altcoin from a technical standpoint, despite this week’s short-term correction, as the coin is trading above its prior all-time high, and this weekend, it looks ready to test the break-out high near $500. Support levels are still found at $400, $360, and $330, and as the long-term picture is approaching overbought territory, investors should only hold on to their positions here.

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other major altcoins are also mostly in bullish setups, with some of them already in the latter stages of this cycle, like Monero and IOTA, but elsewhere in the segment, there are still opportunities for both traders and investors. Let’s see the detailed long-term view.

(more…)

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin and NEO Jump as Bitcoin Trades near $8000

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The cryptocurrency segment continued its bullish run, as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever, while Bitcoin also posted marginal new highs. The most valuable currency is still overbought regarding the long-term picture, and we continue to expect a deeper correction in the coming period, despite the recent strong rally. Support levels are still found $7700, $7000, and $6700 while the $8000 level is ahead as a major obstacle.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been the most active major besides Bitcoin, as it rallied strongly after breaking out above the key $64 resistance and it breached the next target at $75 before heading below $70 again. The coin remains in bullish long- and short-term patterns, and we expect a move above the major resistance zone ahead with the next target found at $82.50.

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Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is showing strength in the second half of the session, while Monero is recovering well from a short-term dip, similarly to IOTA and Ethereum Classic. Ethereum continues to represent stability in the segment, while Ripple failed to build up momentum so far after yesterdays spike higher. With still most of the altcoins being in bullish setups, let’s see the short-term charts.

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Analysis

XRP Looking to Make a Significant Rally

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The XRP/USD pair went into a deep correction after hitting 0.29490 a month ago. It nosedived to the major support level of 0.19052. The pair consolidated for a few weeks which gave the market the legs to test resistance at 0.22924.

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Technical indicators show that the pair was ready to breach its immediate resistance, which it did this morning. Now that resistance has broke at 0.22924, it’s time to buy. This successful breakout will take the pair to 0.23997 first and 0.26563 next before hitting the target of 0.26796 which is coincidentally a major resistance level.

Technical indicators hint that the market would most likely be overbought by the time it hits 0.26796. Should it respect the major resistance level, the likelihood of the market turning extremely bearish increases. Therefore, it is recommended to closely watch your trail stops to preserve your gains.  

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Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 0.22924

Support: 0.22224 and 0.20081

Target: 0.26796

Stop: If the market breaches 0.20081 as next reliable support is 0.19052

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

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