Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD May Have to Return to $100 Again

  • The Ethereum (ETH) price is nursing losses on Tuesday of around 2%, as caution remains in the foreground after the brutal selling on Sunday. Furthermore, the upcoming hard forks will be something market participants have on their minds.
  • ETH/USD may be subject to retest the big psychological $100 mark if near-term support fails to hold.

ETH/USD: Recent Price Behavior

ETH/USD daily chart.

The Ethereum price remains within consolidation mode, nursing minor losses of Tuesday, trading down around 2%. Trading appears to be very much cautious after the brutal selling that occurred on Sunday and was seen across the market. ETH/USD as a result of that downside dropped a chunky 20%, from $170 down to $130. The price briefly printed new 2019 high breaching the previous set in January; this was initially seen up at $166. A rejection at these heights was not a total surprise. However, the aggressive nature of the fall somewhat was of a shock.

An area of supply is now evidently tracking from $165 up to $170; ETH/USD previously sought support at this mentioned territory. Ethereum had not traded comfortably above since November 2018, when the market at the time was in a firm downward trend. The technical view via the daily chart also appears to be a double top formation. Should the noted textbook set up materialize, then the price could be forced to retest the big psychological $100 mark. At present, a near-term demand zone is preventing the price from further a free-fall. The noted area can be observed tracking from $135-128 price range.

Hard Fork Volatility

As a reminder, Ethereum faces two hard forks week: firstly, the long-waited Constantinople hard fork is anticipated to occur at block 7,280,000 around February 28, 2019. However, it isn’t possible to precisely pinpoint the moment when this block will is going to be mined; there is the possibility that it could happen a day or two before, or even after the scheduled date. Secondly, St. Petersburg is projected to take place this week following the Constantinople fork. Ethereum’s development team last week detailed that the two forks at taking place to eliminate vulnerabilities.

The cryptocurrency community should keep in mind that these sort of technology upgrades are subject to price sensitivity. There isn’t a guarantee that the transition will be smooth and plain sailing; this is a risk that should always be considered. Ethereum’s price could very much be subject to higher volatility heading into the Constantinople hard fork and even the days following the fork. In terms of the upgrade, it is widely touted to be positive for both the community and in the longer run Ethereum’s price. Any potential swings of high volatility would expect to stabilize some days after the scheduled upgrades eventually.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

 Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Author:
Ken has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.