Ethereum Price Analysis: ETH/USD is Well Supported for Another Bull Run

  • Ethereum price continues to trend higher, supported by an important near-term ascending trend line.
  • Community optimism heading into the Ethereum Constantinople hardfork, scheduled 16th. 

ETH/USD has been gradually grinding higher since 16th December; aside from a minor period of cooling between 24-28th, it has been consistent. Given this recent easing, the price was forced to retreat and use an ascending trend line for support. It has been running since the commencing of this change in trend on 16th.

Price action over the past few sessions, between 28th December to 1st January, has been moving within a range-block. The trading range has narrowed greatly, still very much being the case at the time of writing. This price behavior strongly suggests of an imminent breakout. In addition, with the support of the mentioned trend line, this is further confluences in favor of the bulls.

Optimism Heading into Constantinople Hardfork

Despite the described technical bullish bias for ETH/USD, there is a big fundamental development due to take place on January 16th. This is the heavily anticipated Constantinople update, which is expected to take place around 7AM UTC.

The hardfork is promised to make Ethereum faster and much more cost effective. Developers not this update should usher a new wave of distributed ledger technologies. This will however go down as somewhat of a controversial hardfork. It is expected to decrease rewards for miners down to 2 ETH from 3 ETH. On the other hand, as detailed, it should decrease the block time, making the network quicker.

Technical Review – ETH/USD

ETH/USD 4-hour chart. Price action is supported by an ascending trend line. Range-block suggests of an imminent breakout.

The 4-hour chart view demonstrates the mentioned range-block. Upper resistance of this can be observed at $145, a break above should see another wave of buying pressure. In terms of the lower part of the range, this is tracking at $132, which is in proximity to the ascending supporting trend line.

Looking to the upside, if the bulls regather upside momentum, then a realistic near-term target would be the big $200 mark. ETH/USD has not traded in this territory since 14th November, during the November bear market. Further north, a return to the pre-fall levels seen at the start of November, between $230-$250 region, could be achieved.

A breach of the detailed lower range-block could see a retest of 26-27th December low area, $117.50. Any exposure here by the bears will likely see a free-fall towards the psychological $100 level. Furthermore, daily support can be eyed at $102, the low area of 19-20th December, before the bulls continued their most recent surge higher.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Author:
Ken has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.