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ETH/USD Price Analysis: Ethereum’s “Thirdening” Approaches

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Ethereum’s trading range narrowed on Tuesday, as attention shifted to the keenly awaited Constantinople upgrade anticipated in the next 36 hours. The hard fork, also known as the “thirdening” for reducing the amount of new ETH released into circulation, is expected to bring about much needed technical changes to the world’s third-largest blockchain.

ETH/USD Update

Ether’s price fluctuated between $127-$131 on Tuesday, and currently resides at the lower end of that range. At the time of writing, ETH/USD was trading at $127.56, down 1.4% over the past 24 hours. During the previous session, the cryptocurrency gained more than 10% in the span of one hour, likely in response to bitcoin’s sudden move higher. More on that story can be found here: Crypto Markets Swing Higher as Bitcoin Climbs Above $3,700.

The sudden breakout alleviated the risk of a fast move back toward $100, which appeared likely at the start of the week, according to the daily technical chart for Jan. 14. As it currently stands, there isn’t much in the way of resistance until $160, a previously difficult region to penetrate for the bulls. Although ETH has experienced oversized moves relative to the broader market in the last month or so, it’s more likely to trade in lockstep with its peers now that the Constantinople supply crunch has faded.

Ethereum continues to hold the third spot both in terms of market capitalization and trading volumes. In the market cap rankings, it trails XRP by roughly $200 million. Its daily trade volumes reached $2.7 billion on Tuesday for a 30-day total of $81.4 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. Only bitcoin and Tether (USDT) are more actively traded.

Constantinople Upgrade: Where We Stand

Constantinople is scheduled to go live at block 7,080,000, though pinpointing an exact moment for a hard fork is never easy. Hacked previously reported that the upgrade would likely fall between Jan. 14-18. A countdown provided by Amerdata suggests that the block confirmation will occur just before midnight on Wednesday, Jan. 16.

The looking hard fork will implement five Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIP), which impact everything from block rewards to scalability. Proposal EIP 1234 will adjust the size of block rewards to 2 ETH from 3 ETH – hence, the “thirdening.” Back in 2017, Ethereum implemented the Byzantium hard fork, which lowered the block reward to 3 ETH from 5 ETH previously. Unlike bitcoin, which halves the block rewards every 210,000 blocks, Ethereum doesn’t have an upper ceiling on its circulation. That being said, lowering block rewards is intended to reduce inflation by lowering the supply of newly created coins.

Once Constantinople is live, Ethereum’s inflation rate will fall to 4.8% from the current rate of 7.7%. The following chart courtesy of Consensys showcases the impact of block rewards on ETH supply and overall inflation:

As of Jan. 12, only 16.4% of Ethereum nodes were upgraded ahead of the hard fork.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 770 rated postsChief Editor to Hacked.com and Contributor to CCN.com, Sam Bourgi has spent the past nine years focused on economics, markets and cryptocurrencies. His work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Avid crypto watchers and those with a libertarian persuasion can follow him on twitter at @hsbourgi




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Another Spike Fails in Crypto-Land

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The major cryptocurrencies continue to follow the pattern which consists of sudden spikes followed by choppy sideways periods. Today, the top coins jumped higher, with the strongest currencies testing their recent swing highs, but the move quickly failed. The market continues to be dominated by low liquidity and the bearish long-term forces, making it difficult to make money trading the long side.

That said, the short-term break-outs, which were formed one week ago, remain intact and our trend model is also on short-term buy signals in the case of the relatively stronger coins. Despite the buy signals, traders should remain cautious with new positions, as the long-term forces continue to work against bulls here.

The leadership of last week’s move continues to be weak and without a new batch of coins hitting new short-term highs, it’s hard to see what could propel the market higher. The top 3 coins haven’t been able to pull their weight either, so odds clearly favor the continuation of the bear market from a broader perspective.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin remains stuck below the $3600 level despite today’s spike, and the bearish drift that started last week in the coin continues. BTC’s relative weakness is a negative sign for the whole segment, and although it’s still above the support/resistance zone just north of $3450, the long-term setup continues to point of the $3250 and $300o support levels.

That said, the short-term buy signal is still in place in our trend model, and traders could open small, speculative positions in BTC, with strong resistance zones being ahead near $3850 and between $4000 and $4050.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has also been showing relative weakness in recent days, and today it dipped back below the key $0.30 support/resistance level following the failed rally attempt. While the coin once again avoided a move towards the next main level of interest at $0.28, it is still likely to violate that level and test the August low near $0.26.

With that in mind, traders should stay away from XRP, with our trend also being on short- and long-term trend signals, and barring a move above $0.32, the immediate outlook is also negative, with further resistance levels ahead near $0.3550 and $0.3750.

Litecoin Tests $44 Level Again as Ethereum Clings to $120

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

After settling down near the $41 price level, last week’s star LTC spiked as high as $44 today, but it failed to break-out above the key resistance zone. While the break-out remains intact and the MACD indicator still only points to a correction, the market-wide trends remain negative, and the previously leading coin hasn’t shown signs of relative strength in the last couple of days.

Traders could still hold their positions here even though a swing low is not yet confirmed, but strict rsik management rules should still be applied. A move back below $38 would trigger a downgrade in our trend model, which is still on a short-term buy signal. Above the initial resistance at $44, further levels are ahead near the recent swing high near $46 and at $51, while support below $38 is found near $34.50 and between $30 and $30.50.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum has been trading in a narrow range today and the recent short-term swing high capped the rally attempt in the second largest coin. While the coin is still holding on to most of its gains from last week, trading well above the $112 level, the lack of bullish follow-through is a negative sign even regarding the short-term outlook.

The hostile long-term setup raises the odds of a failed short-term rally, and although pour trend model remains on a short-term buy signal, traders should only consider small, speculative positions here. The $120 level continues to be at the center of attention, with another strong resistance above that being found near $130, while further support is found in the $95-$100 zone.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 464 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Drift Sideways but Leadership Weakens

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The major cryptocurrencies have been mostly trading in relatively narrow ranges in the past 24 hours, and although we saw a broad sell-off today in early trading, a major bearish move has been avoided, for now. While the coins are still holding on to most of their gains from last Friday’s Litecoin-led surge, the relatively stronger currencies failed to maintain their momentum.

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The weakening leadership reinforces our view that we are experiencing yet another bear market rally, especially as the top 3 coins still failed to show meaningful strength. The likes of Dash, EOS, Ethereum, and Litecoin are all well below their recent swing highs, while the previously weaker coins, such as BTC and Ripple haven’t made technical progress either. With the long-term picture in mind, traders should remain cautious even with the stronger coins here, despite the short-term buy signals in our trend model.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range below the key long-term support/resistance level at $3600, as trading activity remained low throughout the day in the most valuable coin. The low level of liquidity will likely lead to more sudden spikes in the coin, and the lack of bullish follow-through is a clearly negative sign.

That said, from a technical perspective the short-term setup is still leaning positive, but traders should only enter small, speculative positions in light of the bearish long-term setup. The coin still faces strong resistance near $3850 and between $4000 and $4050, while support is found just above $3450, near $3250, and in the key long-term zone near the $3000 price level.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin continues to trade in a short-term correction pattern, and although the recently leading coin lost its relative strength, it continues to hold up well above the line-in-the-sand $38 level. LTC is trying to form a swing low to consolidate its lofty gains, and despite the hostile long-term market-wide trends, it remains on a short-term buy signal in our trend model.

Above the initial resistance at $44, further levels are ahead near the recent swing high near $46 and at $51, while support below $38 is found near $34.50 and between $30 and $30.50, and traders could hold on to their long positions here.

Ethereum and Ripple Little Changed Following Session

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Ripple avoided a break below the $0.30 support/resistance level, it remains stuck in a short-term downtrend and well below the crucial $0.32 resistance level that it tested during Friday’s spike. XRP continues to be very weak compared to its peers, and that points to a likely test of the $0.28 and $0.26 levels in the coming weeks. Above the short-term trendline and the primary resistance zone, strong levels are also ahead near $0.3550, and $0.3750.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum failed to maintain the relative strength that it showed in the aftermath of Friday’s spike, and that is a negative sign for the whole segment. ETH continues to hover around the $120 support/resistance level, and although it remains well above the primary support level near $112, the long-term picture remains negative.

With that in mind, traders should remain cautious with new positions here, even as our trend model is on a short-term buy signal. Above $120 another strong resistance level is ahead near $120, while further support is found in the $95-$100 zone. The prior bear market low near $80 is also likely to be tested in the coming weeks, barring a broad reversal in the segment.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 464 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Ethereum

Ethereum Volume Jumps Above Yearly Average as ETH Coin Price Rises in Waves

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Ethereum (ETH) was in flux on Wednesday as the coin price ebbed and flowed throughout the day – mirroring ETH’s trading pattern over the past week.

Trade volume for Ethereum reached as high as $3.5 billion on Wednesday, and has been elevated above the yearly average ever since the market crash on December 14th – a date which marked a nineteen-month low for ETH, as well as many other altcoins.

Ethereum Price – ETH/USD

ETH’s numbers from the start of the day’s trading until the end are basically the same – close to the $122 mark. But over the course of the day the coin price climbed as high as $125.55 according to CoinMarketCap’s aggregate numbers; while reaching as high as $126.47 on Binance.

By Wednesday evening the rally had turned out to be a brief one, and ETH was priced back down at $122.31 at time of writing. The spread between the top twenty trading venues is thin – all show a price markup of $122.

Surprisingly, the highest concentration of trades comes from DOBI Exchange – a platform which has processed close to half a billion worth of transactions in the past day. Its ETH/BTC pair accounts for $200 million of that sum – a huge number from a somewhat unknown Chinese exchange which doesn’t look too welcoming to Western users.

Weekly Pattern

Something seems to be building with ETH at the moment – the coin price has pushed up in waves over the last seven days, before falling then rising again. An increase to trade volume has accompanied each surge and has risen above the $3 billion mark every time.

When ETH dropped to the $80 range in December, that’s when average daily volume suddenly increased to the $3 billion range. The same happened on Feb 6th, when the coin price hit $103 – a near two month low, and technical analysis suggests there is yet demand at this price range.

Ethereum News

The Constantinople phase of the Ethereum network upgrade is set to go ahead two weeks from now, and all eyes will be on ETH for the build up.

In the meantime, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin took to Twitter to remind followers that neither he nor Elon Musk would be investing in the fictional Entropy Token (ETT). Vitalik had tweeted out this satirical tweet a few days earlier, taking aim at fast-launching scam coins which capitalize on popular trends:

“Entropy! Did I hear entropy? Well I happen to be making an ICO coin called Entropy Token, and it looks like @elonmusk supports it! Buy $ETT #ETT 𝄞ETT! Whitepaper soon!”

That was followed up by a clarification when it turned out that a digital currency known as Entropy did actually exist:

“To be clear, neither I nor @elonmusk actually support holding any quantity of any of these coins (at least if my mental model of @elonmusk is accurate).”

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 144 rated postsGreg Thomson is a full-time crypto writer and digital nomad. He eats ICOs for breakfast and bleeds altcoins. Wherever he lays his public key is his home.




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Hacked.com and its team members have pledged to reject any form of advertisement or sponsorships from 3rd parties. We will always be neutral and we strive towards a fully unbiased view on all topics. Whenever an author has a conflicting interest, that should be clearly stated in the post itself with a disclaimer. If you suspect that one of our team members are biased, please notify me immediately at jonas.borchgrevink(at)hacked.com.

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