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Analysis

Eerie Similarities Between Crypto Market Cap and the Dow Jones

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Very few charts are as compelling as the total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies. This simple chart depicts the progress of one of the biggest bull markets of all time. Interestingly enough, the market’s upward trajectory has eerie similarities to another chart: the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

To be fair, this similarity was raised by Hacked member Jure Vizjak. He aptly noted the following:

“Two different indexes, two different periods, same shape of the charts?”

Well, that’s exactly what appears when we compare the crypto market cap to the Dow. Case in point:

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Cryptocurrency Market Cap

Eerie Similarity

Both the Dow and the broader crypto market have had an amazing year. The blue-chip stock index has returned more than 19% since Jan. 1. By comparison, the global cryptocurrency universe has added more than 1,600%. While both markets are on an upward trajectory, the Dow has a 110-year head start, which means its movements aren’t nearly as dramatic.

Although it’s pure speculation at this point, the charting patterns suggest that markets follow a similar trajectory, and that this is true across multiple time frames. The dips and peaks in the Dow have occurred over a much longer time horizon, but investors did what crypto traders seem to be doing now: buying the major dips, corrections and recessions. The crypto market has certainly experienced dips and corrections, with each being followed by a stronger buying spree.

That investors buy the dips is conventional wisdom. Any value investor will tell you that the major indexes have a historical trajectory that is very much upward, making periods after recession an optimal time to buy stocks on the cheap.

Overvalued? 

Another common theme that intersects the Dow and the crypto-sphere is fear of overvaluation. For the past year, market participants have been concerned that the U.S. equities rally is running too hot to handle, especially when one considers the (lack of) fundamental factors driving the market. Earnings have been positive (because they reflect a weak year-over-year starting point), the economy is improving (if you ignore wages, quality of jobs and export weakness) and investor sentiment is high (because participants are hopeful that the Trump administration can stimulate growth), but do these justify having the top highs and highest lows since 1929? Because that’s what the Dow has experienced this year.

To make a long story short: Wall Street is currently in the middle of its second-longest bull market ever. Many investors, including the author, are failing to justify it from a purely fundamental perspective.

Critics have been even harsher on cryptocurrencies, with many in the mainstream absolutely convinced we are in the midst of a major speculative bubble. At this point, very few analysts disagree that speculation isn’t part of the equation; where they diverge is on the nature and sustainability of the rally.

To give you the contrarian perspective, consider this: prior to 2017, bitcoin was the world’s best performing currency in six of the past seven years. Investors have long been bullish on cryptocurrency in general and bitcoin in particular. Of course, the market’s previous trajectory was nothing like we’ve seen in 2017, but to act like there is no precedent ignores the facts, not to mention the bevy of high-quality altcoins making their way to market.

And before we split hairs over bitcoin vs. cryptocurrencies, the original blockchain currency still controls more than half of the total market cap. It’s very difficult to have a discussion on the crypto market cap without referencing bitcoin both directly and indirectly. After all, BTC has been absolutely critical in driving adoption of altcoins.

For the time being, the overlap between the Dow’s historical chart and the one-year trajectory of cryptocurrency is an interesting observation. Only time will tell whether there is a more profound meaning.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 23,580.78 on Monday, or roughly 10 points shy of all-time highs.

The total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies is currently $305 billion.

Disclaimer: The author is actively invested in cryptocurrencies and has passive exposure to the Dow.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 647 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Altcoin Market Cap on the Verge of Trend Reversal

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Fund managers and investors often rely on a market index to get a general sense of where the market may be headed. Usually, an index is the weighted average of the largest or the best performing equities in the market. For example, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) is the combination of 500 of the largest US stocks represented as one index value. These indices act as a barometer as they represent and influence the performance of the entire market.

For someone who invests in stocks and cryptos, I understand the importance of an index and apparently, I’m not alone. Cryptocurrencies don’t have an official index that could serve as a weather vane so someone created one. The creator/s of coinsignals.trade pulled data from coinmarketcap.com to provide charts and candles and reflect the price movement of the entire altcoin market (coin market capitalization minus bitcoin capitalization). This gives us the opportunity to analyze the direction of all altcoins. What we saw was promising.

In this article, we reveal how the altcoin market cap is on the verge of reversing its trend.

Weak Breakout from Falling Wedge  

The altcoin market cap managed to go as high as $554.916 billion in January 2018. At that market cap level, the parabolic run of altcoins came to a screeching halt. The market went into a downward spiral as it generated a series of lower highs and lower lows. A quick look at the weekly chart shows that the market cap was inside a large falling wedge.

The weekly chart of Alts

The market eventually broke out of the pattern in September 2018. However, the breakout had no legs as volume was actually thinner than its weekly average. Even so, alts attempted to generate a breakout rally, which was firmly rejected at $112 billion several times. As a result, the market tumbled.

Nevertheless, this weak volume breakout would set the stage for the market’s bounce.

Key Support Levels to the Rescue

In technical analysis, former resistances become reliable support areas. These former resistances turned out to be crucial in the bottoming out process of the altcoin market.

A quick look at the daily chart reveals that two support levels have kept bears at bay. The first one was the former resistance of the falling wedge. Notice how the altcoin market smoothly slid down to this support without breaching it. Even though this support is weak, it proved to be instrumental in the market’s bounce.

The daily chart of Alts

The other one is the parabolic support of $80 billion. This support was also a former resistance level. The altcoin market struggled to get above this level in October 2017. When it did, altcoins soared. The market apparently remembers this price action even after a year later as participants bought at this area.  

We’ve seen numerous altcoins such as Ripple (XRP/USD) and Monero (XMR/USD) become bullish after bouncing off parabolic support levels. Will we see the same action for the entire altcoin market cap? Perhaps, the emerging pattern on the daily chart can give us more clues.

Potential Inverse Head and Shoulders on the Daily

The market’s bounce at $80 billion was met with heavy selling at $112 billion on September 23. This is the same level that rejected the breakout rally that would have turned the market bullish. With bears defending the resistance, the altcoin market lost over $22 billion in value as it pulled back below $90 billion.

Inverse head and shoulders in the making

The good news is the retracement has enabled bulls to create a bullish higher low setup. This is the first higher low generated by the altcoin market in 2018. This is a huge development. If the lower high can kill bullish momentum, the higher low can suck the energy out of bearish momentum.

With a higher low in place, it appears that the altcoin market is creating an inverse head and shoulders pattern in preparation for a bullish breakout. I’ve said it many times: this is one of the most reliable structures in reversing a market’s trend. If altcoins follow the projected path, then we’re on the verge of a bullish breakout.

Bottom Line

Our analysis of the altcoin market capitalization chart reveals that the market is on verge of taking off. The weak breakout from the falling wedge, bounce from key support areas, and the emergence of an inverse head and shoulders pattern are all setting the stage for a massive crypto comeback. To those who are still bearish, maybe it’s time to reconsider your stance.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 249 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Sideways Drift in Cryptoland

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Not much has changed in the past 24 hours in the cryptocurrency segment, with most of the majors experiencing light trading activity and low volumes following Monday’s spike.

Ripple stayed in the center of attention as the third largest coin has been drifting higher together with Stellar, outperforming the broader market. Despite the gains, XRP also remained clearly in Monday’s range, and the technical setup continues to be shaky even concerning the strongest digital currencies.

While Tether continues to trade with a discount, leading to a slight premium in the price of cryptos on several exchanges, volatility is very low in the markets. Although most of the top coins are slightly lower today, the small moves mean that the total value of the market is still near the $210 billion level, and Ripple is edging closer to Ethereum in market cap yet again.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is holding on above the key $0.42-$0.46 zone thanks to its relative strength, but the coin is still on a short-term sell signal in our trend model, as it failed to show real momentum since the surge that was fueled by the dislocation in Tether’s market. XRP still faces strong resistance levels near $0.51, $0.54, and $0.57, and until a move above the spike high, a new short-term uptrend is not confirmed and traders should still not enter new positions.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin failed to rally back above the primary resistance level at $6500, even as the coin stabilized well north of the $6275 level and its pre-surge price zone. With that in mind, the coin remained on a short-term sell signal, with a test of the $6000 support still being likely.

While the long-term setup is still neutral, and the long-term support zone near $5850 is fairly safe currently, given the overwhelmingly bearish long-term outlook in the segment, we continue to be defensive towards Bitcoin as well. Further resistance levels are ahead at $6750 near $7000, while below $5850 the next major support zone is found between $5000 and $5100.

Ethereum Holds Just Above $200 as Litecoin and Dash Continue to Lag

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With the exception of Ripple and Stellar, altcoins are leaning bearish today, with Ethereum still being the most important laggard of the segment. While ETH is trading above $200, it remains in bearish technical setups on both time-frames, and the recent days confirmed the weakness of the second largest coin again.

Traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here, as a move towards the $170 bear market low is still likely in the coming period, with strong support level as also found near $180 and $160 and with resistance ahead near $235 and $260.

Dash/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash has been showing weakness throughout this month, and the coin is now likely headed back towards the key $150 level. A move below primary support would warn of a test of the bear market low near $130, while an unlikely move above $170 would signal a trend change. For now, Dash remains on sell signals on both time-frames, and trades should stay away from the coin.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Litecoin experienced an encouraging bounce in September, it is among the weaker major coins again, and the $51 support level is back in the spotlight. A move below that level is still likely even after the spike above $56 on Monday, since sellers are clearly in control of the currency’s market.

The next major support zone is found near $44, with the bear market low above that at $47, while further resistance is ahead near $59 and $64.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 377 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

TRON Price Analysis: TRX/USD Cools After Reports Suggest of Potential Baidu Partnership, but Not Blockchain Focused

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  • Reports of TRON and Baidu partnership focused on cloud computing resources.
  • TRX/USD price has cooled over the past two sessions, but supported within an ascending channel.

Potential TRON and Baidu Partnership – Not Blockchain Related

The founder of TRON Justin Sun, had left the community very excited on Friday, after tweeting “Finally, First time to partner with tens of billions USD valuation industry giant. Guess the name.”

According to ODaily, a local Chinese newswire, the partnership will be focused on cloud computing resources, not blockchain. It covered that TRON would be buying cloud computing resources from China’s equivalent to Google, Baidu. This was cited and translated by CNLedger.

If this being the case, it could be somewhat disappointing for some of the TRON community. There would have been general expectation and hope, of this being related to the foundation’s blockchain network. As it states the partnership remains focused on the purchase and use of Baidu’s basic cloud computing resources, rather than being a connection “at the blockchain business level.”

The report covered that Tron and Baidu will be working to maximize inter-compatibility. In addition, “to build, operate and debug blockchain products” based on Baidu Cloud. Baidu and Tron have not yet formed any connection at the blockchain business level. Currently the cooperation mainly focuses on the purchase and use of (Baidu’s) basic cloud computing resources.” As covered by CNLedger’s translated report.

Despite the circulating details, there has not been an official confirmation from either TRON or Baidu.

TRON Launches TronGrid

Most recently, TRON launched a website known as TronGrid, which will toolbox for developers. As a result, it will assist them in being able to integrate DApps smoothly into the TRON ecosystem. The move somewhat similar to Ethereum’s Infura.

Technical Review – 4-hour Chart View

TRX/USD 4-hour chart

TRX/USD price has cooled over the past two days now. Following a large spike up to $0.027980 on 15th October, the price had headed deep into a known supply zone. This is seen tracking form around $0.02700 – 0.028500 range. As a result, sellers forced TRX/USD back down within an ascending channel pattern.  It has been grinding higher within this channel since the 12th October.

Given the cooling in price action, it is worth noting the support seen at the lower trend line of the mentioned pattern. Furthermore, comfort can be observed around $0.024850. A breach may see a very fast move back south, reversing the upside move from 12th October. This could see a drop down to $0.020670.

Looking to the upside, should this ascending channel continue supporting the price, as it has been. Then expect bulls to give the near-term supply zone another retest. However, this area has been respected since the back-end of September. It is evident that sellers remain camped within this territory, not an easy task for the bulls to break down. ­

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 30 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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