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Draghi Flip-Flops Twice as Bitcoin Surges Past $2500

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Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2474 0.11%
DAX 12522 0.56%
WTI Crude Oil 47.67 0.61%
GOLD 1239.00 -0.25%
Bitcoin 2575 12.11%
EUR/USD 1.1562 +0.42%

Well, that was quick; the European Central Bank backtracked from its recent hawkish position today, as the President of the central bank announced in its monetary statement that the ECB is ready to expand its Quantitative Easing program in “time and extent” if needed. The move was probably fueled probably by the Federal Reserve’s change in rhetoric in reaction to the soft economic data in the US. Later on, The ECB continues its “Fed-dependant monetary policy, while the recent surge in the Euro is also likely to pose a problem for the European policy makers.

Financial markets reacted in line with the ECB’s announcements, with the common currency first turning lower, especially compared to the Dollar, while the most important European indices recovered strongly with the DAX rallying past the 12,500 level. The moves were mostly retraced following the press conference, but the DAX and the Euro Stoxx 50 both remained in the green. US indices continued slightly higher after hitting new all-time highs yesterday, with the NASDAQ still leading the way, after the recent correction. As the US earnings season is heating up, we expect volatile overnight moves in the major indices in the coming period.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies are very active today, as expected, as the Euro’s volatility is accompanied by the Yen’s choppy reaction to the mixed BOJ monetary statement. The bank raised its GDP forecast but lowered its inflation projection, while leaving its monetary policies unchanged. The Pound also fell despite the better than expected British Retail Sales report, while the Aussie and the Canadian Dollar declined slightly compared to the Greenback. Commodities are mixed amid the forex volatility, with oil still being strong and gold consolidation its recent gains.

Cryptocurrencies

The crypto market continued its strong rebound today, with Bitcoin leading the way higher, still boosted by the bullish sentiment and the oversold conditions. Dash is also among the strongest majors, nearing the $200 level during the European session. Monero and Stratis also posted a higher high today, as the broad based recovery of the segment continues following the weekend’s panicky moves. Ethereum is consolidating below its highs, and while Bitcoin is breaking out of its declining trend, in line with our previous projection for the correction, ETH is still stick below the long-term trendline.

Bitcoin, Daily Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX remains the weakest major global index, as the ECB’s announcements failed to break the short-term trend, despite the strength in US equities. That said, a move above the declining trendline and the 12,650 level, and could set up a move towards 13,000. The crucial support between 12,350 and 12,500 is still in focus, and another move lower is more likely, given the relative weakness of the benchmark.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 14,000 14,400 42,000
3:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.6% 5.5%
Tent. JAPAN BOJ Interest Rate Decision -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Tent. JAPAN BOJ Monetary Statement
13:45 EUROZONE ECB Rate Decision 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
14:30 EUROZONE Monetary Statemement
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 233,000 245,000 247,000
14:30 US Philly Fed Index 19.5 23.4 27.6

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
10:30 UK Public Sector Borrowing -0.1% 0.1%
14:30 CANADA CPI Index -0.1% 0.1%
14:30 CANADA Core Retail Sales 0.0% 1.5%

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 443 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Constructing a Head and Shoulders Pattern

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  • TRX/USD remains vulnerable to further downside, with eyes on the possible head and shoulders technical structure.
  • TRX/BTC bulls are having much difficulty breaking down huge area of supply.

TRX/USD Price Action

TRX/USD daily chart.

There has been little in terms of committed market direction. It appears that after the huge bull run, which was observed from mid-December until 10th January, the price is trying to find its feet again. The gains of that push higher were a chunky 180%, before quickly becoming unstable and losing some of that ground.

Head and Shoulders Pattern

TRX/USD head and shoulders formation, via daily chart.

A near-term ascending trend line can be observed via the daily chart. This could be forming a head and shoulders formation. The left shoulder and head have already been constructed, with attention on this possible right shoulder. It is currently moving back towards the trend line, acting as a neckline for the technical pattern. A breach could see a fast fall below the $0.020000 mark.

The next major area of support is seen at a demand zone, which tracks from $0.017500 down to $0.016000. TRX/USD last traded here on 20th December, when the bulls ran through this range, which at the time was acting as supply. At a worse case scenario, a failure of this zone holding will shift attention to the December low area, $0.011150.

TRX/BTC Bulls Cannot Break Down Big Supply Zone

TRX/BTC daily chart.

This trading week, the TRX/BTC bulls attempted on a few occasions,to break down heavy area of supply. It can be seen tracking from 0.00000700 up to 0.000007500. The price has not been convincingly breached since June 2018, a strong sign of the bearish trend gripping the market. Briefly on 10th January, an aggressive spike to the upside was observed, pushing above for a very short-time before the sellers piled in.

Weekly Chart

TRX/BTC weekly chart.

Looking via the weekly chart view, TRX/BTC has been pushing higher for the past three consecutive weeks, at the time of writing. Despite this run of gains, the technical picture does still somewhat express some vulnerabilities. The large upper wick produced during the week which commenced 7th January appears to be a bearish pin bar formation.

If this week fails to close in the green, it could suggest that a larger wave of selling pressure may materialize. Typically, the types of candlesticks described above tend to come ahead of downside pressure. In addition, then numerous rejections seen within the earlier detailed supply zone, stacks favorably for the bears.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Monero Price Analysis: Stronger Malware to Mine Monero; XMR/USD Has Room for Another Potential Squeeze South

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  • Researchers: a stronger malware has been uncovered, which can mine Monero.
  • XMR/USD price action remains stuck in a narrowing range, subject to an imminent breakout.

The XMR/USD price has seen some upside on Saturday, holding gains of around 3% towards the latter stages of the day. Despite the press higher from the bulls, a move which has been observed across the cryptocurrency market, vulnerabilities remain. Price action has been ranging for the past nine sessions. Once again, this isn’t specifically just XMR, as this type of behavior is witnessed across the board. The narrowing in play came after the steep drop that rippled across the market on 10th January.

Price action was initially well-supported to the upside by an ascending trend line, which was in play from 15th December. This at the time was a very promising recovery, as XMR/USD had gained as much as 55%. Unfortunately, however, the bulls were unable to break down supply heading into the $60 region and were eventually dealt a big hammer blow. On 10th January, the market bears forced a heavy breach to the downside, smashing through this support. The price had dropped a big double-digits, some 20%.

Stronger Malware Mining Monero (XMR)

There is a dangerous form of malware that can bypass being detected and mine Monero (XMR) on cloud-based servers. A recent notice was put out by Palo Alto Networks’ Unit 42, an intelligence team that specializes in cyber threats, regarding a Linux mining malware. This was detailed to have been developed by Rocke group, which has the ability uninstall cloud security products. It can do this to the likes of Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud, to then illegally mine Monero on compromised machines.

The two researchers from Palo Alto Networks, Xingyu Jin and Claud Xiao, detailed the findings of their studies. Once the malware is downloaded, it takes administrative control to initially uninstall all cloud security products. Shortly after, it will then then transmit code that will mine the Monero (XMR). Further within their press release, they said, “To the best of our knowledge, this is the first malware family that developed the unique capability to target and remove cloud security products.”

Technical Review – XMR/USD

XMR/USD daily chart.

Given the current range block formation, eyes should be on the key near-term technical areas. Firstly, to the downside, $43, which is the lower part of the range. A breach here will likely see a retest of the December low, $38. To the upside, resistance be observed at around the mid $46 level. Should a breakout be observed here, then a potential retest of the broken trend line will be watched.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Litecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Bulls Enjoy Big Jump But Stubborn Resistance Capping Potential

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  • Litecoin sees a relief rally on Friday, but is still stuck within stubborn range-block.
  • LTC/USD price action has formed a bearish flag pattern structure, subject to a potential break lower.

The Litecoin price on Saturday was seen holding decent gains of over 5%, as life is kicked back into the bulls. The LTC/USD pair has been victim of trading within a stubborn daily $3 range. This very much being the case for the past nine trading sessions. It is a form of consolidation after the breach south from an ascending trend line. This had been supporting the price from 14th December 2018, up until the bears forced a breach on 10th January.

In light of the breakout below the above-mentioned trend line, a large wave of selling pressure came with that. LTC/USD plunged by as much as 25% to the lowest levels seen since the start of the month. The earlier described range-block formation has come as a result of the increased volatility that accompanied the break south. The high of the range should be noted at the $33 mark, with the lower support eyed down at the psychological $30 level.

Bear Flag

Given this type of price behavior from a technical standpoint, it appears to demonstrate some vulnerabilities to the downside. The calming and consolidating after an initial explosive drop lower to then potentially resume the selling pressure reflects this point. As can see from either the 4-hour or daily chart, price action has formed a bearish flag pattern. When the market fell from 9-10th January, this formed the pole of the bearish flag of the structure. The actual flag is currently being constructed, as part of the sideways trading being observed.

Lightening Network Trial Underway

As reported by the CCN team, Coingate, a cryptocurrency-based payments platform, has now executed a trial run of its Lightening Network via Litecoin.  The platform has partnered up with a privacy service provider, known as Surfshark for this pilot project. Within the partnership, the implementation of Lightening Network payment solution for Litecoin transactions is a big milestone for the cryptocurrency community.

Technical Review – LTC/USD

LTC/USD daily chart. A bearish flag structure can be seen.

As detailed earlier, a breakout from the range-block formation will be the next trend defining move. Should the bears manage to force a break below the lower support, tracking at $30, then a demand area below will be called into action. This can be observed tracking within the $28 price region, which is a known area to find buyers. A failure to do so could see LTC/USD drop back down towards $23-22 range.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 110 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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