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Dow Could Hit 100,000 By 2030; Adviser Urges Investors To Prepare

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average could hit 100,000 by 2030, according to financial author and adviser Ric Edelman. Edelman, who believes incredible profits are in the making for those who prepare for new economic realities. If it doesn’t hit 100,00, he said, it will probably hit 150,000.

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The blue-chip index currently trades at around 21,000, meaning a surge to 100,000 would mark a roughly 376% increase.

In his book, “The Truth About Your Future: The Money Guide You Need Now, Later and Much Later,” Edelman tries to educate investors on saving for retirement in the age of technology with life expectancies of 110 and 120. People will need to work much longer than they do today because they will live much longer.

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Fortunately, technology has reduced the cost of investing, thanks to exchange-traded funds.

Retirement Will No Longer Exist

“We’re not going to have a future the way our parents and grandparents had theirs,” Edelman told interviewer Scott Gamm in “The Street,” a Yahoo interview show.

Retirement now, as a 20th Century innovation is gone. It won’t exist in the 21st Century.

“You need to save in companies that are going to survive and thrive in the 21st Century,” he said.

Gamm asked Edelman how a person who has failed to start saving early can make up for getting a slow start. “It’s never been easier thanks to the Internet, and exchange traded funds and products of that type,” Edelman said. “Investing has gotten cheaper, it’s gotten easier, it’s gotten faster, it’s gotten safer.”

“Exponential technology also brings with it exponential growth… compound interest,” Edelman said.

And when you take advantage of saving not for 20 or 30 years but for 50, 60 years, you’d be amazed how much wealth you can create.

The Growth Of The Gig Economy

Gamm pointed out a person can also create wealth by having a “side hustle” as opposed to a 9-to-5 job. Edelman agreed. “Thanks to the gig economy, the shared economy, you have the ability to make money on a part time basis with very low risk, very low barrier to entry,” he said. “Anybody can do this, and an awful lot of Americans are.”

He said 16% of American workers are strictly working as contractors who work only when they feel like it.

Will The Trump Rally Continue?

Donald Trump

Noting that some people might be afraid to invest in the markets, Gramm asked Edelman what he thinks of the Trump stock rally. “We’re going to see a continuation of this for the next several decades,” Edelman said.

Over the last 50- or 60-year period, the DJIA has increased. “There’s no reason to think that won’t continue, in fact, financial technology makes that easier,” Edelman said. “We’re going to see incredible profits in the United States as well as globally.”

In his first market update to his clients last month, Edelman noted that the DJIA was up 11 percent since the election, and the S&P 500 index was up 9 percent. If this pace continues, he said stock prices will gain 24 percent this year alone.

He acknowledged there is concern that the “Trump Rally” will fizzle, and that it’s simply the “honeymoon period” new presidents typically experience. Trump’s failure to repeal the Obamacare also fuels this concern since Trump promised he would repeal Obamacare.

Should Trump also fail to reform the tax code and rein in the budget, will stock prices fall?

Why Trump Doesn’t Own The Rally

Edelman claims it’s incorrect to believe that the rise in stock prices is only due to Trump. While the election has excited investors since he’s seen as a business-friendly president, that’s not the only reason stock prices are up. Edelman points to the following economic factors fueling rising stock prices:

• U.S. corporate earnings increased 8% in the fourth quarter. Profits from overseas operations, meanwhile, rose 14.5% compared to the same period the prior year. This marks the biggest advance since mid-2010, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.

• Individuals, not just companies, are now making more money. Personal income is up 4.6% compared to the prior year. Salaries and wages are up 5.5%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

• The overall economy is growing. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross domestic product increased 2.1% in the fourth quarter.

• Consumer confidence rose in March to its highest level in 16 years, according to The Conference Board.

When people are confident they will continue to make more money, they are willing to spend more, Edelman noted.

Hence, sales of newly-built homes increased 6% in February, marking a 20% gain over February 2016 and the largest increase in five years.

The president cannot claim responsibility for much of the improvement, Edelman noted. But his positive attitude and his statements that please Wall Street contribute to the country’ economic improvement.

Trump wants to:
• reduce corporate and individual tax rates
• reduce regulation
• increase jobs
• bolster U.S. competitiveness in foreign markets
• repatriate billions U.S. corporations have overseas
• spend $1 trillion on infrastructure

Such positions please investors since they support an environment for improved corporate profits which translates into higher stock prices.

What If Stocks Fall?

The question remains: if Trump fails to pass his policies, will stock prices fall?

This is possible, Edelman noted. Hence, he gives the following advice:

He reminds his clients that portfolio diversification is important since it helps manage risks if stock prices fall. His company’s managed asset program is not totally invested in U.S. stocks.

Strategic rebalancing is also important. Most Edelman managed asset portfolios have been rebalanced this year. The company has been a seller, not a buyer, of over-performing funds. This is a way to maintain proper asset allocation.

Third, Edelman reminds clients of a core market truth. A stock price decline is not synonymous with a loss. Investors should consider what happens after a decline. History indicates stock prices move only in two directions: up and down. If prices drop, sit back and wait. Because markets move in cycles, prices eventually rise. It is always important to remember, however, that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Fourth, keep in mind every new president suffers slips in his early days, and Trump is no exception.

President Clinton failed to pass a health care overhaul in his first term. George H.W. Bush sent commodities prices into a spiral by saying he hates broccoli. The stock market survived such “crises.”

Fifth, keep in mind the stock market has increased dramatically in the last six months. Even if the Dow fell 10 percent, it would still be ahead of where it was on Election Day.

Consider All Aspects Of Financial Security

Lastly, consider that a person’s financial security will not be determined primarily by any president or Congress. A person determines their own future.

Every individual must focus on the aspects of their personal finances that they can control. This includes making sure wills and trusts are up to date, that too much in interest isn’t being paid on the mortgage, that one has the right kind and amount of insurance, the right amount of cash reserves on hand, and proper contributions are being made to retirement plans.

Edelman is chairman and CEO of Edelman Financial Services LLC. He has a radio show, six books, a column, conferences and nearly half a dozen appearances on Oprah. His books include “The Truth About Money; Ordinary People, Extraordinary Wealth” and “The Lies About Money.”

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. corporate_citizen

    May 13, 2017 at 7:02 pm

    We’ve all heard this bull(ish) talk before, just before the dot.com crash:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_36,000

    Bottom-line, the stock market cannot rise without liquidity; the hyper-liquidity dumped by central banks for decades, now. Having said that, there is a possibility that the US equity market will rocket upwards due to flight capital if foreign markets flounder. With interest rates at 5,000 year lows, sovereign debt may likely be the catalyst.

  2. thoth

    May 14, 2017 at 7:59 am

    Does the Fed have enough money to buy all those stocks?

    Oh yeah…… Wonder whats it’s balance sheet will look like in 2030

  3. kochelli

    May 15, 2017 at 6:12 pm

    This doesn’t make sense. Probably a typo…

    If it doesn’t hit 100,00, he said, it will probably hit 150,000.

    • Edward Talliot

      May 15, 2017 at 6:42 pm

      Yes, most likely..

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Analysis

Music: One Overlooked Use Case

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So far in this year, Ethereum has been the crypto star appreciating over 80% to a recent record of $1402. All this suggests that more and more applications are being created. We know this by the demand for Ether, the gas that drives the Ethereum network.

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The reason behind the explosion of Ether demand was confirmed by Ethereum co founder Steven Nerayoff in a CNBC interview where he claimed the number of Ethereum projects today is more than 10 times year ago levels.

One of those areas is the music business and there are several names appearing on the ICO list to add to your research agenda.

Why The Music Business Needs Help

Music may live forever but the business side has been in trouble for a long while. Over the last decade there have been only three years when the global value of music sales increased. The combination of digital music and outright pirating through peer-to-peer sharing has much to do with the long-term trend.

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Throughout the world there are 69 copyright and royalty societies given the responsibility of documenting, collecting and distributing music royalties. That means collecting a few pennies whenever a song is played on the radio, Internet or anywhere else. Four of the largest of these is in the US, followed by Japan, Germany and Britain. Their operations are truly byzantine.

Experts in the music-publishing field confirm the time between music usage and royalty payment can run close to 24 months. Even then not all royalties are distributed. According to my sources, there are often millions of dollars collected by royalty authorities everywhere that never make it to the entitled recipients. That sort of practice borders on criminal behavior but copyright and royalty societies operate in a sub-rosa manner making it difficult to understand their policies.

In the past just 4 major record labels controlled over 80% of the industry. These giants could afford a full time legal department to pursue royalty issues dominated the music industry. Today, however, independent labels represent almost one-third of the market. This means less democracy in the business with the young independent artist at a particular disadvantage.

Of course, musicians aren’t the only group of artists loosing out on their pay. There are writers, poets and painters that go largely unprotected.

The music business is just easier to track because it has more data. Yet in spite of all the information, the music industry is widely recognized for its lack of transparency. Blockchain technology has the ability to disrupt long-standing industry practices.

ICOs To The Rescue

The number of Ethereum based white knights is starting to appear on the horizon promising to rattle the industry and hopefully restore some democracy on behalf of the independent artist.

One simple business model comes from a startup SingularDTV who is attempting to build their ecosystem on top of Ethereum. Here is the basic value added proposal.

SingularDTV tokenizes the artist work. In doing so the artist is turning their music into a financial asset. Anyone who buys into an artist’s token owns a share of the creation and its income stream. The more people consume an artist creation, the higher goes the token price.

Only time will show if SingularDTV succeeds with this model. The consequence of this model is how it eliminates many of the middlemen and nefarious influences in the industry. Instead of singing on a street corner for bread, an artist could raise money upfront without relying on an advance from a record label.

According to SingularDTV, distributing content via blockchain would allow artists to skirt streaming platforms like Spotify to earn royalties on their own terms. Now that is true democracy.

SingularDTV may stand out a bit in the news due its recent ICO success in raising $8 million but they aren’t the only player in the music game. Names like Voise recently raised $1 million as well as Soundchain, Blokur and Opus to name a few.

I am no longer a registered investment advisor, which means I don’t go around making investment recommendations. So I will only suggest this group to put on your list of late night reading. Next time, I will take a closer look at more of these names.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Why You Must Buy The Brand Names

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No matter if you are a developer with deep knowledge of technology or a prospective first time investor, your choices are pretty mind-boggling. This year started with 1384 cryptocurrencies. More are coming every week.

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Literally billions are being made but how to choose the right one. If it means spending you life buried in complex technical blogs trying to understand both the obtuse technical language and then the writers jargon, you may decide to bail.

Putting Perspective on The Technology

There are loads of folks who understand the different technology between bitcoin and Litecoin or between Ethereum and Cardano. My perspective comes from analyzing dozens of businesses over more than four decades and cryptocurrencies is one of the most promising yet.

Simple Solution

Here is a solution that will help you cut through the complexity. Buy the best brand name. Classic investment risk management dictates a completely different strategy. Every certified investment advisor will recommend risk diversification and clearly cryptocurrencies are about as risky as you can find.

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However, after digging through all 1384 cryptocurrencies, you will be fully diversified by owning just two brands. The couple that we are talking about is bitcoin and Ethereum.

There are other choices in the top ten like Ripple, bitcoin Cash, Cardano and Litecoin. Each brand is worth researching but none offer all the combined benefits of bitcoin and the Ethereum Network.

ICOs Don’t Need To Be Confusing: Look To Ethereum

 In the past year some huge returns have been chalked up by initial coin offerings. Here we are talking about companies seeing their value go from fractions of a penny to dollar multiples in no time. The challenge is how to choose the right one.

Consider what you are dealing with. Initial coin offerings allow companies that are at pre-venture capital stage to get started. So the risks here are higher than investing in a blind pool venture capital fund.

The accepted formula by VCs is to aim for a success rate of 2%-5%. This means that 95% of the companies that are much further developed than most ICOs will fail. With your chances of finding the dream ICO generously placed at 1%-2%, why bother.

In 2017 more than 1,000 ICOs raised about $4 billion. According to ICO Watch List, 78.7% of those used the Ethereum platform. So if you want to play the ICO game, why not simply own the gas the powers the network: Ether.

 The Ethereum Brand: Think Microsoft Corp

In a recent CNBC interview Ethereum co founder Steven Nerayoff made the comparison of Ethereum with the early stages of Microsoft Windows. Along with Bill Gates, Microsoft is one the world’s most ubiquitous brands. Side note: Microsoft didn’t reach Ethereum’s present value until after ten years of Windows.

Nerayoff cites billions of dollars being poured into as many as ten times the number of projects in 2018 over the previous year. From his vantage point these projects include a wide breadth of industries starting from financial tech, oil & gas, gaming, travel/resorts, government and various creative areas.

According to Jeremy Millar, cofounder of the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA), CEOs across the world are clamoring for blockchain technology. Millar believes most CEOs require a heavy dose of education about the new technology and that means there will be a natural demand for the largest supplier with the biggest brand- Ethereum.

A key to Ethereum’s brand leadership started last February when the EEA to connect Fortune 500 companies with Ethereum experts. Now with almost a year under their belt membership has grown to over 300. This is brand leadership in the most important market for Ethereum. Nobody else is close.

The Bitcoin Brand

Think of bitcoin as a brand like MasterCard, Visa, American Express or even Crest toothpaste. Each of these names enjoys instant consumer recognition thanks to million invested in advertising, marketing and image development. Bitcoin is unique in the sense that not a single bitcoin has been spent to advertise its usefulness.

One source claims there are well over 10,000 merchants that accept payment in bitcoin. Headliners include Microsoft Corp, Subway, Whole Foods, Intuit, Expedia, Bloomberg, Dish Network and Overstocked.

Ask First Data, Fiserv or any other payments processing company and they will attest to the difficulties of changing client habits in accepting payments. Any newbie attempting to enter the payments business will have to answer the dual questions: what makes you better, faster and cheaper then bitcoin and do you have greater consumer acceptance? Right now, bitcoin has a lead of at least two year and they aren’t sitting still.

The Bitcoin Moat Is Being Built

 Bitcoin is the king of digital currencies but the king is not perfect. There are those shortcomings like volatility and slow speed.

The start of a bitcoin futures market began on December 18. The CME and CBOE are giving everyone the ability to hedge. The prospect of reduced price volatility will attract additional mainstream retailers.

No more than a few days after futures trading began on the CME, one of the largest luxury used car dealers in Japan announced the acceptance of bitcoin. Since then the giant investment bank Goldman Sachs has created a research team and issued a glowing report on the cryptocurrency outlook. The tipping point for bitcoin has taken place.

The bitcoin moat is being built even wider by Bitcoin Lightning Network, which was released this week both increasing speed and resulting in dramatically lower fees.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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The Lessons Of Meltdown And Spectre

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The discovery of the twin flaws Meltdown and Spectre and the events related to the information leak that followed carry a huge message: we all need to do something to regain control of our digital identity. Blockchain technology is the most compelling option.

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A few days back we wrote about the computer chip flaws named Meltdown and Spectre found largely in Intel and AMD products. The discovery of these flaws leaked into public hands leading to a possible public relations mess if not disaster for the worlds largest chip fabricators as well as Microsoft.

The PR Template

The history of public relations has formulated a strategy that calls for the affected company CEO to issue an apology and offer the promise of a quick and reliable solution.

On Monday January 7 Intel CEO Brian Krzanich announced an update all of Intel’s products within a week covering 90% or more with the balance available by month end. This sounds reassuring until you get a closer look. After that everything quickly breaks down.

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Limited Coverage

The updates only cover products introduced in the past five years. What about the rest of the user base? There are uncountable data centers in existence with equipment dating back to 2013 and before. My still totally awesome iMac was build in 2011.Five years is not all that long.

The Meltdown and Sprectre flaws affect every computer, server and mobile devices since the dawn of the digital age. Since there is no known fix for Spectre, we must assume the update only covers Meltdown.

Opening The Door

Krzanich stuck to the company line that the updates would not drastically affect computer performance for the average user. The operative word here is “average user”. But even this claim contradicts Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella who warned their Meltdown fix would result in processing speeds 20%-30% slower than normal.

Before updates and security fixes are in place, bad actors have some valuable time to do their deeds. The Intel release insures that every hacker will have his or her very own guide to both Meltdown and Spectre.

Intel even attached the security researchers released documentation of critical vulnerabilities of Meltdown and Spectre. Only GPS could have been better.

Protecting Your Digital Identity

Just for fun, I opened the Apple Store and into the search window I typed “Passwords”. Immediately I was presented with 10 different categories so I picked “Password Manager”. There were no fewer than 75 apps to hide your passwords.

In addition there is Apples own Keychain and Google Passwords so we are getting closer to 80 in total. Conclusion: if anyone was all that good there would hardly be a need for this many.

Can All 80 Apps Be Wrong?

It didn’t take long to realize the “raison d’ etre” for so many password managers offered nothing to do with superior performance. They just created another layer of usernames and passwords. These days when we forget a password it sets in motion a whole chain reaction that includes changing and manually resetting everything in the password manager.

We have all been through this massively frustrating process that never seems to change. Is our personal data safer with almost 80 password managers to choose from? Obviously not just look at the data breech at Equifax or Target Corp.

The answer as to why nothing has basically changed since the days of the dialup Internet is that the possession and control has shifted from over 315 million Americans and billions more elsewhere to a handful of corporate controllers.

Frequent and well-publicized breeches prove that the controllers of our identity never really protected our privacy. They simply did a good job convincing us they had our backs.

Guarded By The Phantom

This phantom layer of security was breaking down long ago when data storage companies began popping up across the country. But in many cases they kept data spread over several different locations.

This is until the birth of cloud storage when two things changed. The entirety of corporate data could be centralized making it rich bounty for hackers. Then for server efficiency multiple corporate client data was loaded onto a single server. Yum, this is like a Thanksgiving feast.

Weaknesses from centralization of data go beyond cloud storage. Look no further than the security vulnerabilities in Meltdown and Spectre.

Regaining Control

If ever there was a good reason for government to protect its citizens, this is one of them. Unfortunately the problem is too big for a mere regulation or two to do the full job.

Using blockchain technology for digital identity holds the power to regain ownership of our data. It has the power to create a new model of online data management. The fact that it frees companies from the liability of data ownership should make for a receptive audience. And of course the cost savings is an added bonus.

The Benefits of Ownership

When the ownership of our digital identity returns to the hands of individuals, you will have the power to decide who has access, under what conditions and for how long. Proponents of this idea believe it creates an incorruptible digital record and can be used for virtually any peer-to-peer transfer of any asset.

Pronouncing anything incorruptible or totally secure is foolish especially given overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Security has always and will always be a comparative state. There are no absolutes. It is true however that the decentralized architecture of blockchains make for much less interesting prey for hackers compared to those big cloud storage facilities.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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