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Opinion: Despite Recent Woes, Bitcoin Could Hit $30,000 This Year

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After a tumultuous start to the year, bitcoin is set for a dramatic surge in value by the end of 2018, according to David Drake, the crypto commentator and founder of investment firm LDJ Capital. Drake is betting big on bitcoin after last week’s Group of 20 ministerial meeting failed to establish an overarching framework for regulating cryptocurrency.

Drake’s Bold Prediction

In an interview with Bloomberg last week, Drake predicted bitcoin would reach $30,000 by year’s end. Although he didn’t go into detail about his estimate, it’s more or less in line with several other forecasts calling for a price-per-coin of $25,000 or above.

Bitcoin experienced “a cold winter” in the first quarter, according to Drake, with prices failing to set even a single record high. The digital currency was last seen trading at $8,435, having declined by nearly half since the beginning of the year. Prices recently traded as high as $11,600 before succumbing to bear market pressure.

In Drake’s view, bitcoin remains the undisputed king of cryptocurrency, proclaiming that some of the lesser known coins are “fraudulent” and “strange.” When capital returns to the market, it will likely flow into bitcoin first.

Assessing Drake’s Forecast

Although nobody would have questioned Drake’s prediction three months ago, investor sentiment has radically shifted recently. Regulatory uncertainty, a fear-mongering mainstream media and perhaps weaker demand at the institutional level have all weighed on markets.

Bitcoin fell below $6,000 in early February as part of a protracted slump in the cryptocurrency market. A parade of central bankers and supranationals masquerading as cryptocurrency experts contributed to the declines by calling bitcoin a “threat to financial stability” and warning that “policy intervention,” even “preemptively,” would be needed.

While FUD-induced volatility is nothing new for bitcoin, the agenda has shifted significantly over the past three or four years. When the author began covering bitcoin back in 2013, cryptocurrency was synonymous with dark web criminal overlords, hackers and other clandestine activities. Those elements still exist, but very few credible voices believe they are the only actors benefiting from bitcoin.

Fast forward to today and the conversation is all about bitcoin’s threat to financial stability and the pending regulatory witch hunt. In the process, traditional media has flat-out lied about the direction of these and other developments (see: Mainstream Media Is Misinterpreting Bitcoin Regulation Again).

Given bitcoin’s previous rally to $20,000, Drake’s forecast is very reasonable – even in such a narrow time frame. To understand why, consider the following:

  • Massive price swings are not uncommon for bitcoin. Whereas stock market can take years to gain 20%, bitcoin can do it in a few days.
  • Bitcoin’s fundamentals haven’t changed very much from when prices were valued near $20,000. If anything, the outlook is much brighter thanks to ongoing efforts around scalability and privacy (for example, bulletproofs are considered a major crypto breakthrough).
  • There’s lots of evidence that demand for cryptocurrency is rising. Some of the more notable examples of this trend are the rapid growth of online exchanges, institutional efforts to bring bitcoin and other cryptos to traditional investment circles and continued growth of ICOs.

However, in Drake’s view, bitcoin’s growth will be based on something more fundamental than all the above:

“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin. This would happen over the next decade, but it could go faster,” he said.

Although the jury is still out on Drake’s single currency hypothesis, investors are slowly returning to bitcoin after dabbling in in the more obscure altcoin market. Bitcoin’s share of the market is much higher today than it was in early January when the crypto universe crossed $800 billion in value. At last check, bitcoin controlled roughly 44% of the global cryptocurrency market, with roughly 39% of all trades being made in BTC.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 743 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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GBP/USD Price Prediction: Bulls Reclaim 1.2900, Eyes Locked on Another Retest of 1.3000

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  • GBP/USD bulls pick up momentum to the upside, following generally positive tone to Theresa May’s Plan B statement.
  • Next upside targets for the bulls should they firmly breakdown 1.2900 again, will be the psychological 1.3000 mark.

GBP/USD throughout the session on Monday remained very much elevated. This came as market participants were somewhat maintaining an optimistic view. All of which heading into the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech to the House of Commons, on her Brexit plan b. Of course, this had to be drafted again, given her humiliating defeat at the vote last week, on the initial EU withdrawal plan.

Theresa May Plan B

In terms of her details this time round, she will be going back to Brussels, to seek some amendments to her initial agreement. This needs to be done in order to get a plan through another vote in the commons. Looking at some of the GBP bullish takeaways from this statement; she guaranteed rights for EU citizens at several angles, scraping the application fee EU nationals registering in Britain, discussing the backstop with the DUP this week.

To conclude, PM May appears keen in her language to ensure of a soft-Brexit, rather than one that is hard. All of which supported GBP in its push to session highs, at the time, briefly moving back above 1.2900. The price had given up this area on 18th January, when the bears were reversing the run observed on 17th, where GBP/USD touched to big psychological 1.3000 mark again.

Technical Review – GBP/USD

GBP/USD 60-minute chart. Near-term resistance eyed at 1.2900, with bulls locked in on a retest of 1.3000.

GBP/USD at the time of writing continues to trade around the 1.2900 territory. This price did see a brief period cooling, on touted profit-taking post the statement. Near-term resistance can be seen within this price region, but if convincingly broken down again, then there is decent upside potential. Aside from the supply observed here, there isn’t much in the way of the 1.3000 price region.

Given the renewed optimism around Brexit now, this has assisted in maintaining momentum to the upside for GBP. In terms of support to the downside, a strong area of demand should be noted at 1.2850-25 price region. As can be seen via the 60-minute chart view, this has supported the price since 15th January.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 111 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Rejected Again by Long-running Descending Trend Line

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  • BCH/USD bulls attempted moving above vital descending trend line capping upside; however , they were dealt another rejection.
  • A recent study suggest Bitcoin Cash is not using anywhere near its full block capacity.

 Bitcoin Cash Bulls Fails to Break Big Resistance

Bitcoin Cash price on Monday is trading in minor negative territory, nursing losses of just some 0.5%, at the time of writing. Over the past three sessions, BCH/USD has traded very closely to a descending trend line. The price continues to face rejection when attempting to break above the aforementioned line; however, the bulls do not have enough momentum. This trend line has been in play since 6th November, right at the start of the pick up in downside, at the back end of 2018.

While BCH/USD was confined below the above-mentioned resistance, it fell a chunky 88%. It had dropped from around $650, down to a low of $73.50 on 15th December. Given the current failure to press ahead and break above, the price once again could be knocked back south.

Bitcoin Cash Block Capacity Failure of Use

There is now 500 days’ worth of data to analyze the capacity of Bitcoin Cash when looking at its block size. A recent study conducted by LongHash suggests that the Bitcoin (BTC) blocks on average have been 30x larger than Bitcoin Cash.

Looking at the figures, in terms of Bitcoin Cash, the block size on average has reported to have been just 171 KB since the fork back in August 2017. In real terms, this represents just 2.1% of the total block capacity for BCH. On just one day there the BCH blocks have been more than half full. Back on 15th January 2018, the blocks were able to average 59% of their total capacity, as covered by the recent study.

The study from LongHash further goes on to say, that some will believe that the BCH blocks not nearing their full capacity is a potential positive sign. However, this can also be seen as a lack of interest in Bitcoin Cash, which is somewhat concerning. Most recently, over the past 30 days, the blocks of BCH have averaged just a small 34 KB, which is just around 3.7% of the roughly 923 KB blocks of Bitcoin over that same period.

Technical Review – BCH/USD

BCH/USD daily chart.

Keeping in mind the earlier described rejections for the price, eyes should now note the coming key areas support. Firstly, just ahead of the big psychological $100 mark, at $105, which is an important daily support. The price had last traded around this level between 6-10th December, as it sought comfort at the time, before resuming its move south. If this fails to hold, then a retest of the December low and 2018 low at $73.50 would likely be on the cards.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 111 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Tron Price Analysis: TRX/USD Constructing a Head and Shoulders Pattern

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  • TRX/USD remains vulnerable to further downside, with eyes on the possible head and shoulders technical structure.
  • TRX/BTC bulls are having much difficulty breaking down huge area of supply.

TRX/USD Price Action

TRX/USD daily chart.

There has been little in terms of committed market direction. It appears that after the huge bull run, which was observed from mid-December until 10th January, the price is trying to find its feet again. The gains of that push higher were a chunky 180%, before quickly becoming unstable and losing some of that ground.

Head and Shoulders Pattern

TRX/USD head and shoulders formation, via daily chart.

A near-term ascending trend line can be observed via the daily chart. This could be forming a head and shoulders formation. The left shoulder and head have already been constructed, with attention on this possible right shoulder. It is currently moving back towards the trend line, acting as a neckline for the technical pattern. A breach could see a fast fall below the $0.020000 mark.

The next major area of support is seen at a demand zone, which tracks from $0.017500 down to $0.016000. TRX/USD last traded here on 20th December, when the bulls ran through this range, which at the time was acting as supply. At a worse case scenario, a failure of this zone holding will shift attention to the December low area, $0.011150.

TRX/BTC Bulls Cannot Break Down Big Supply Zone

TRX/BTC daily chart.

This trading week, the TRX/BTC bulls attempted on a few occasions,to break down heavy area of supply. It can be seen tracking from 0.00000700 up to 0.000007500. The price has not been convincingly breached since June 2018, a strong sign of the bearish trend gripping the market. Briefly on 10th January, an aggressive spike to the upside was observed, pushing above for a very short-time before the sellers piled in.

Weekly Chart

TRX/BTC weekly chart.

Looking via the weekly chart view, TRX/BTC has been pushing higher for the past three consecutive weeks, at the time of writing. Despite this run of gains, the technical picture does still somewhat express some vulnerabilities. The large upper wick produced during the week which commenced 7th January appears to be a bearish pin bar formation.

If this week fails to close in the green, it could suggest that a larger wave of selling pressure may materialize. Typically, the types of candlesticks described above tend to come ahead of downside pressure. In addition, then numerous rejections seen within the earlier detailed supply zone, stacks favorably for the bears.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 111 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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