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Opinion: Despite Recent Woes, Bitcoin Could Hit $30,000 This Year

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After a tumultuous start to the year, bitcoin is set for a dramatic surge in value by the end of 2018, according to David Drake, the crypto commentator and founder of investment firm LDJ Capital. Drake is betting big on bitcoin after last week’s Group of 20 ministerial meeting failed to establish an overarching framework for regulating cryptocurrency.

Drake’s Bold Prediction

In an interview with Bloomberg last week, Drake predicted bitcoin would reach $30,000 by year’s end. Although he didn’t go into detail about his estimate, it’s more or less in line with several other forecasts calling for a price-per-coin of $25,000 or above.

Bitcoin experienced “a cold winter” in the first quarter, according to Drake, with prices failing to set even a single record high. The digital currency was last seen trading at $8,435, having declined by nearly half since the beginning of the year. Prices recently traded as high as $11,600 before succumbing to bear market pressure.

In Drake’s view, bitcoin remains the undisputed king of cryptocurrency, proclaiming that some of the lesser known coins are “fraudulent” and “strange.” When capital returns to the market, it will likely flow into bitcoin first.

Assessing Drake’s Forecast

Although nobody would have questioned Drake’s prediction three months ago, investor sentiment has radically shifted recently. Regulatory uncertainty, a fear-mongering mainstream media and perhaps weaker demand at the institutional level have all weighed on markets.

Bitcoin fell below $6,000 in early February as part of a protracted slump in the cryptocurrency market. A parade of central bankers and supranationals masquerading as cryptocurrency experts contributed to the declines by calling bitcoin a “threat to financial stability” and warning that “policy intervention,” even “preemptively,” would be needed.

While FUD-induced volatility is nothing new for bitcoin, the agenda has shifted significantly over the past three or four years. When the author began covering bitcoin back in 2013, cryptocurrency was synonymous with dark web criminal overlords, hackers and other clandestine activities. Those elements still exist, but very few credible voices believe they are the only actors benefiting from bitcoin.

Fast forward to today and the conversation is all about bitcoin’s threat to financial stability and the pending regulatory witch hunt. In the process, traditional media has flat-out lied about the direction of these and other developments (see: Mainstream Media Is Misinterpreting Bitcoin Regulation Again).

Given bitcoin’s previous rally to $20,000, Drake’s forecast is very reasonable – even in such a narrow time frame. To understand why, consider the following:

  • Massive price swings are not uncommon for bitcoin. Whereas stock market can take years to gain 20%, bitcoin can do it in a few days.
  • Bitcoin’s fundamentals haven’t changed very much from when prices were valued near $20,000. If anything, the outlook is much brighter thanks to ongoing efforts around scalability and privacy (for example, bulletproofs are considered a major crypto breakthrough).
  • There’s lots of evidence that demand for cryptocurrency is rising. Some of the more notable examples of this trend are the rapid growth of online exchanges, institutional efforts to bring bitcoin and other cryptos to traditional investment circles and continued growth of ICOs.

However, in Drake’s view, bitcoin’s growth will be based on something more fundamental than all the above:

“The world ultimately will have a single currency, the internet will have a single currency. I personally believe that it will be bitcoin. This would happen over the next decade, but it could go faster,” he said.

Although the jury is still out on Drake’s single currency hypothesis, investors are slowly returning to bitcoin after dabbling in in the more obscure altcoin market. Bitcoin’s share of the market is much higher today than it was in early January when the crypto universe crossed $800 billion in value. At last check, bitcoin controlled roughly 44% of the global cryptocurrency market, with roughly 39% of all trades being made in BTC.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 672 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he leads content development for one of the world's foremost cryptocurrency resources. Over the past eight years Sam has authored more than 10,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers in the fields of labor market economics, emerging technologies, cryptocurrency and traditional finance. Sam's work has been featured in and cited by some of the world's leading newscasts, including Barron's, CBOE and Forbes. Contact: sam@hacked.com Twitter: @hsbourgi




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Altcoins

Zcash Price Analysis: ZEC/USD Flood Gates Open After Breakout and Retest from Pennant

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  • ZEC/USD licking its wounds with deep double-digit losses as the market continues to take a beating.
  • Next major areas of support are eyed at currently levels around $89.50 and then $75.

Zcash has been under chunky selling pressure, no thanks to the larger weakness seen across the broader crypto market. The ZEC/USD exchange rate is nursing deep losses, running at two consecutive sessions firmly in the red. At the time of writing, the price has dropped over 25% in the last two sessions. This extended downside comes after a breach and retest from a pennant pattern.

ZEC/USD daily chart

ZEC/USD had moved within the above-mentioned technical set up since 12th September. The formation of this set up took shape following a deep market sell-off from the back-end of July to mid-September. Price behavior was very much consolidation mode, forming this pennant. Playing out to the textbook, a breakout from the set up was seen.

Further on the above, the firm daily breach came on the 14th November. The few daily sessions that followed this were within consolidation mode. Subtle retests underneath the broken pennant were seen. The Monday session saw the extension further south after the brief retest period. The bears smashed through the big psychological $100 mark, leading prices to the downside.

As a result of the above price developments, ZEC/USD selling pressure has forced a move on the current daily candlestick below a vital demand area. While the $105 – 95 range has proven to see buyers sweep in, sellers are proving to be too much to handle. This area previously served as a strong safety net, on 12th September, where decent buying came into play.

Support Levels

ZEC/USD weekly chart

Viewing the weekly chart, the bears are currently testing the lowest levels seen since May 2017 to the downside. This is seen just below the $90 level. Looking further south, the next major downside target is seen at the $75 area. This is a weekly support level, which was last in play back in April 2017, when the price started to pick up bull momentum.

A breach of the above-mentioned areas could be catastrophic. Eyes would then be on ZEC/USD potentially free-falling a further 50%, down within $40. This would be the next major consolidation area that could provide some firmer footing. The price last traded here in March 2017. This would be the very extreme scenario but cannot be ruled out.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 60 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

Bitcoin Cash Price Analysis: BCH/USD Hard Flops as Price Moves Within the Abyss

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  • Bitcoin Cash price falls into uncharted territory, struggling to find a bottom.
  • Weekly chart still points to further downside, RSI not within oversold territory as of yet.

The Bitcoin Cash price remains heavily on the back foot, the standout under-performer across the major altcoins. BCH/USD is currently running at three consecutive sessions of losses. The streak could have been much longer, however the price was given a breather ahead of a pick up in downside intensity. In the past two weeks, BCH/USD has dropped over 60%.

As covered in an article earlier in the month, BCH/USD failed to break down a key area of supply. This was seen within the $650 territory; the price had faltered here in early September. It was forced back down to the south, to then retreat at some neckline support, $410.

BCH/USD daily chart

The most recent occurrence within the above-mentioned supply zone was seen between 6-8 November. Heavy sellers piled in, forcing the price initially down to the neckline support, $410. Between the 15-19th November, BCH/USD had breached, retested and consolidated around this area, before a resumption of further bloodshed.

Downside Targets

Looking via the weekly chart, the BCH/USD exchange rate demonstrates that the price is literally falling into the abyss. This fall is very much uncharted territory, so the bears are free to drive this a far south as it needs to be taken. In terms of the RSI, this indicates that there is still some room for this to be driven lower. It has not quite reached oversold territory yet.

BCH/BTC weekly chart

When observing BCH/BTC, at the time of writing the price is testing the previous session’s low. This area is significant as it provided much needed support in October 2017. A break here and close below 0.04775 could be punishing. This again is movement into an unknown realm of price action, so it remains unclear where the bottom will be at this time.

Upside Targets

In terms of upside barriers, given the recent price action, new areas of resistance have been formed. Firstly, around the $370 level, as this was the former acting support during the consolidation between 15-18th November. Furthermore, eyes would then be on a retest of the breached neckline former support, $410. Lastly, should both these areas be conquered again, the supply from $600-650 would be next up.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 60 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Cryptocurrencies

This Week’s Crypto Winners

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The past week worked out to generally be a down market for most cryptocurrencies, but we saw several experience massive increases over the last 7 days.

Nasdacoin

Nasdacoin increased a whopping 158.75% to reach a price of $2.47 as of the date of publishing. Ranking as #93 in terms of market capitalization, much of this change seems to be attributed to the team announcing that Nasdacoin would be listed on several new exchanges.

CREX24, BTC-Alpha, and MERCATOX all announced plans to list NSD on November 12th, and the result was a quick run-up in the price of the coin. From looking at the whitepaper, there doesn’t seem to be anything special about the coin, and it is easy to conclude that the recent increases are mostly the result of an improvement in accessibility, rather than a notable change in fundamentals.

Animation Vision Cash

Animation Vision Cash (AVH) is a content trading platform that underwent a significant spike on November 19th for an as yet unconfirmed reason. The platform differentiates itself among others by being an adult content trading platform. Content providers prefer this market mechanism a lot more, and the goal of the platform is to create a dialogue between producers and consumers. The recent 71% jump in price is likely the result of recent announcements.

On.Live

ONL, the coin of On.Live, went through a 70% spike in price to approximately $0.12. This is a true altcoin, with a market capitalization of approximately $2.4 million. The company is devoted to the idea of revolutionizing how video broadcast and remote consultations are executed. The ONL token is what would power the entire economy of the platform, however no new significant news has been released that explains this jump in price.

Factom

Factom has experienced a 51% run-up in price over the last 7 days, reaching a price of $6.49 at the time of publishing. Factom currently has a market capitalization ranking at 74 ($57.8 million), and this could continue to grow with the good news that has been published. On the 14th, it was announced that Equator would be incorporating Factom’s blockchain-as-a-service technology into their mortgage software. Generally, huge partnerships like this are seen as major successes, and help the public perception, as well as the economic case.

Birake

Birake had their BIR token appreciate 45% in the last week. Currently trading around a price of $0.12, Birake has a tiny market capitalization of $2.4 million. As a white label cryptocurrency exchange, they have a fairly unique offering, and it is natural that they have the occasional spike in price.

As you can see, there is a wide variety in the coins that were the biggest winners of the week. Some were in the top 100, and others weren’t even in the top 500. While this doesn’t negate the bear trend of the broader cryptocurrency market, it shows that there are still winners in our midst.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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