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Daily Update: U.S. Stocks Retreat as Trump Reshuffles Cabinet

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U.S. stocks declined Tuesday, reversing a strong open as political turmoil in Washington weighed on investor sentiment.

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Nasdaq Pulls Back from Record

All of Wall Street’s major indexes finished in negative territory on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index pulling back from record territory. The technology-driven index fell 1% to close at 7,511.01.

The broader S&P 500 Index was down 0.6% by the close to settle at 2,765.31. Seven of 11 sectors contributed to the loss, with financials and information technology each shedding more than 1%. Energy and consumer discretionary stocks also posted firm losses.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 171.58 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 25,007.03.

Al three major indexes started the day in positive territory before giving back gains on political headlines involving the Trump administration.

A measure of implied volatility known as the CBOE VIX rose for a second consecutive day but continued to trade below the historic average. Wall Street’s gauge of investor anxiety rose edged up more than 3% to 16.34, on a scale of 1-100 where 20 represents the historic average.

Tillerson Out, Pompeo In as Secretary of State

President Donald Trump removed Rex Tillerson from his post as Secretary of State on Tuesday, a move that caught markets and members of his own party off guard. CIA Director Mike Pompeo was immediately named the successor, ending months of public discord between Trump and his former Secretary of State.

The decision to replace Tillerson comes as the Trump administration embarks on high-stakes negotiations with North Korea on matters ranging from economics to Pyongyang’s nuclear program. Although the Secretary of State is not considered a key decision-maker on economic policy, the cabinet shuffle triggered renewed anxiety over the internal dynamics of the Trump administration.

Trump praised Pompeo for earning “the praise of members in both parties by strengthening our intelligence gathering, modernizing our defensive and offensive capabilities, and building close ties with our friends and allies in the international intelligence community.”

Inflation Rises

A closely-watched report on U.S. inflation came in as expected Tuesday, all but confirming the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates later this month.  The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% in February, which translated into a year-over-year gain of 2.2%, the Department of Labor reported from Washington. That was slightly ahead of January’s 2.1% annual pace.

So-called core inflation, which strips away volatile goods such as food and energy, also rose 0.2% on month and 1.8% annually.

The U.S. central bank keeps close tabs on inflation to determine the future path of interest rates. Fed officials are widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter point at next week’s FOMC meeting.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 415 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Artificial Intelligence

YEXT: An Invisible Force In Artificial Intelligence

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YEXT, Inc. (NYSE: YEXT) is one of those behind the scenes companies involved in Intelligence Search that plays an important role in Artificial Intelligence. What does that mean? Remember the Amazon commercial? “Eco, order a 12” Pizza with pepperoni from Stromboli’s and have it delivered”.

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Today the vast majority of online searches go through third-party sources such as data aggregators, governmental agencies and consumers. The net result of this third party sourcing has been to produce “best guess” data that can often miss or misstate the target data field.

YEXT developed a better way to source critical digital knowledge.  For example business clients use YEXT to update public facts about their brands. They are building their based on the rapid and ever changing nature of data.  So far the YEXT Knowledge Network offers over 100 services to more than 110 corporate clients and has over $150 million in annual revenue.  So could YEXT play a key role in AI,  the next big thing?

How YEXT Works

Most of us are familiar with big time search engines like Google, Google Maps, Facebook, Instagram, Bing, Cortana, Apple Maps, Siri and Yelp.  These pioneering companies are the major drivers in information search today.  However, we also know, their accuracy is not exactly ideal.  

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This is where YEXT steps in.  Their knowledge engine platform lets business manage their digital knowledge in the cloud and sync it to over 100 services including the kingpins of search noted above.

Intelligent Search is the structured information that a business wants to make publicly accessible. In food service it could be the address, phone number or menu details of a restaurant; in healthcare, the health insurances accepted by a physician or the precise drop-off point of the emergency room at a hospital campus; or in finance, the ATM locations, retail bank holiday hours or insurance agent biographies.

Artificial Intelligence Offers a Potential $10 Billion Market

Improving search results in general is nice but not very sexy.  It doesn’t make you want to beg for more information.  However, when you consider the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in our evermore data intense world, the importance of Intelligent Search and the opportunities for YEXT becomes a compelling story.  

The AI trend is already underway as YEXT is increasingly using the structured data on their platform to expand or add new integrations with vertically specialized applications, voice-based search and AI engines.

Just Right For Big Data Applications

YEXT customers use their platform to manage their digital knowledge covering over 17 million attributes and nearly one million locations. These customers include leading businesses in a diverse set of industries, such as healthcare and pharmaceuticals, retail, financial services, manufacturing and technology.

Major customers include: AutoZone, Ben & Jerry’s, Best Buy, Citibank, Denny’s, Farmers Insurance Group, H&R Block, HCA, Infiniti, Marriott, Michael’s, McDonald’s, Rite Aid, Steward Health Care and others. The list is growing.

Management believes the market for digital knowledge management is large and mostly untapped with over 100 million potential business locations and points of interest in the world equaling over $10 billion.  

Shooting For Acquisitions and Broad AI Penetration

Founded in 2006 by serial entrepreneurs Howard Lerman (CEO) and Brian Distelburger, President these two are typical software guys whose vision appears much more broad based the their current focus with YEXT.  Here is where the prospectus from their April 2017 IPO offers some mystery and excitement to the story.

Unlike most rapid growth tech companies YEXT had no urgent need to go public.  They generated almost $60 million in gross profit in 2016 before heavy marketing costs resulted in a loss of $26.5 million.  Even so, they still ended the year with $20 million in cash. That’s a fair distance from being destitute.

The company’s real need for the IPO was to establish a liquid public market for the stock. They raised about $123.5 million, all of which will go into the bank.  The company is debt free and there are no insiders selling stock.  Very interesting.

Strong  Financial Results

For the latest reported nine months ended October 31, 2017 revenues grew 38% reaching $122 million.  The good news is the gross profits reached a record 75% or $90 million.  All of this was spent on sales and marketing to expand the business.  When all the beans were counted, YEXT lost $50 million producing a $30 million negative cash flow.  The balance sheet remains liquid with $120+ million in cash and securities.

FYI: In spite of some top notch bankers underwriting its IPO and analysts from those same five firms covering the company, the stock has done almost nothing for investors.  This $1.1 billion market cap was recently hanging out around $12 about the same as the IPO price.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 76 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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ETF Leader Matt Hougan Predicts Trillion-Dollar Crypto Market in 2018

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After 15 years in the ETF industry, Matt Hougan is taking a career-changing plunge into the cryptocurrency market. The impetus behind the decision is simple: in his view, cryptocurrencies will transform the investment world just like ETFs did over the past decade.

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Trillion-Dollar Market

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Matt Hougan described cryptocurrency as an “early-stage technology,” but one that is primed to grow manifold in the not-too-distant future. This includes a trillion-dollar valuation as early as 2018.

“The pathway to $1 trillion eventually is fairly certain,” Hougan told Bloomberg. “How we get there is going to be volatility and uncomfortable. I think we’ll get there pretty soon, though. I wouldn’t be surprised if we ended the year with a cumulated market cap of over $1 trillion. But I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a significant drawdown again before we got there.”

Earlier this year, the cryptocurrency market looked poised to cross the $1 trillion mark. The total market cap peaked above $830 billion before undergoing a series of massive corrections that saw the total market bottom near $276 billion.

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Hougan, who is currently serving as an executive with Bitwise, has also described bitcoin as the millennial generation’s gold for its safe haven characteristics. Although coins such as bitcoin have struggled to achieve mainstream adoption as money, they have succeeded as stores of value.

Crypto Market Cap

The cryptocurrency market has declined sharply over the past week, offsetting an equally large gain during the previous seven-day period. At the time of writing, the total market cap of bitcoin and 1,518 other cryptocurrencies was $435 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

As we reported earlier, there was no apparent catalyst behind the market’s latest slide, a sign that profit-taking may have been in play. Speculators are slowly returning to the market in the wake of favorable regulatory signals from countries such as the United States and South Korea.

Although many analysts still consider cryptocurrencies to be a bubble, they expect the market to continue growing in the near term. As Hougan indicated, the path higher will be volatile, with double-digit percentage drops likely to remain a staple of the market trend.

To those who doubt the idea of a multi-trillion-dollar cryptocurrency market, it’s important to bear in mind that technological growth is usually exponential. There’s little to suggest that cryptocurrency, or the underlying technology behind it, is even close to hitting full stride.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 415 rated postsSam Bourgi is Chief Editor to Hacked.com, where he specializes in cryptocurrency, economics and the broader financial markets. Sam has nearly eight years of progressive experience as an analyst, writer and financial market commentator where he has contributed to the world's foremost newscasts.




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Lessons From Venture Capital Craziness

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Financial technology or Fintech is a white hot area these days and lots of folks are after a piece of the action.  The payments business is one huge area of opportunity even before counting cryptocurrencies. When the global economy generates more than $90 trillion in GDP, that means lots of money constantly on the move.  Trouble is, these days, it moves slowly and at a high cost.

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With that much at stake, there is no shortage of entrepreneurs with the next disruptive idea.  As an analyst and investor, it is hard to choose who knows their stuff.   Revulut got my attention and here is how it happened.

Venture Capitalists are wrong on about 95% of their investments but to put a valuation of this magnitude was quite unusual, maybe even a little crazy. The crypto buzz had a lot to do with Revolut’s capital raising success.

Last summer, Revolut founders Nikolay Storonsky and Vlad Yatsenko raised over $66 million in VC funding and another $23 million from Crowdfunding. That is serious money considering the company was scarcely a year old at the time with hardly any revenues.  This placed the implied value of the company between $200-$400 million.

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It would be easy to declare insanity in the ranks of venture capital.  An equally plausible conclusion is that a major source of risk capital has done their homework on crypto and has given their seal of authenticity.  Just something to keep in mind as the price of crypto is soaring and the word bubble comes up.    

About Them

The Revolut app allows customers to open a current account in under 3 minutes, and includes a prepaid contactless MasterCard debit card.  So far there is nothing unusual about Revolut. Sounds like about any other branchless bank.

The company marketing offers freebees like free international money transfers that could save users 3% so that is good.  Also there is free access to global ATM machines although no mention is made of what networks are included or their location.  

And there is one other caveat; the free ATM access ends when you withdrawn $250 in any month.  That is chump change for most people.  If you average closer to $500 per month at the ATM, you will want to select the Premium service.  That will cost $6.99 per month.

OK so not everything is really free but still $6.99 per month beats the $25-$35 charged by conventional banks.

Offering freebees can be a great way to attract customers but read the fine print before making any commitments.  In Revolut’s case you really have to dig into the details such as the limit of free ATM withdraw before little charges start to creep in.  And if you are an American here is the most puzzling detail taken directly from the company website.

“You can transfer money to banks in the United States using Revolut. However, if you are currently living in the United States, you cannot make a bank transfer from Revolut to your local bank account due to licensing restrictions.”  Something must have been lost in translation: what does this mean?

The firm launched personal international bank account numbers (IBANs) across Europe last summer.  So if you live in the United Kingdom or one a a dozen or so Eastern European countries, Revolut offers real value added services.  For the rest of the planet, not quite yet.

Since then they have begun integrating  currencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum and Litecoin.  Here is the sizzle to bring in new customers.  “Revolute will now be able to buy, hold and exchange Bitcoin, Litecoin and Ethereum in just 30 seconds at the best possible rates.”  There is a 1.5% fee for this service which is competitive with exchanges like Coinbase and others.

Revolut is adding other new services beyond cryptocurrency to lending and pay-as-you-go travel insurance at the tap of a button.  Altogether, not a bad business plan but it is the crypto connection that moves the needle.

VCs Depending On Experienced Management

Storonsky is more than a slick operator with a pretty pitch deck.  He and his partner have deep experience in the global payments business.  Nikolay spent years as a currency trader with Credit Suisse so he understands the level of fees charged by the current system.  

The technical wizardry, however, rests with his partner Yatsenko. Vlad spent over 10 years building financial systems for major Wall Street investment banks.  He serves as the company’s CTO.

Conclusion: Why Is Revolut Unique?

The global payments business has long been a gigantic oligopoly controlled by a series of networks, governments, banks and a group of oversized corporations such as Visa, MasterCard, Fiserv and others.  

Taken together it is like a mafia of financial behemoths interested in nothing more than keeping the status quo.  Perpetuating the system enables them to maximize the amount of fees for the mindless service of money transfer.  Revolut could be one of many disruptive forces but will it take $90 million to get them there.  Evidence shows the answer is most definitely no.  The cache of cryptocurrencies in the Revolut business mix has attracted Venture Capitalist and others to pay outsized prices for access.  Bravo for crypto investors everywhere.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 76 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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