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Daily Analysis: Stocks Volatile Before Easter as Dollar Slammed by Trump

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Daily Analysis: Stocks Volatile Before Easter as Dollar Slammed by Trump


Thursday Market Recap

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Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2341 -0.32%
DAX 12120 -0.21%
WTI Crude Oil 53.23 -0.34%
GOLD 1284.75 0.55%
Bitcoin 1195 -1.43%
EUR/USD 1.0619 0.06%


Global stocks took a hit yesterday, as the geopolitical tensions remained in focus. China might be getting ready to send troops to the North Korean border, while the negotiation between Vladimir Putin and US secretary of State Tillerson didn’t help the mood between the two powers concerning Syria. Safe-haven assets remained strong throughout the day and today in early trading, with the Japanese Yen and gold still being favored by traders. Japanese equities are once again the weakest globally, but the European and US indices are also under pressure.

Donald Trump delivered a surprising blow for the US Dollar, as he voiced his concerns about the currency being “too strong” while reassuring Janet Yellen in her position as the chair of the Federal Reserve. Gold got close to the $1300 level after following Trump’s words, and even the Euro jumped higher despite the persistent pressure on the common currency. Oil drifted lower yesterday as well, and now WTI Crude stabilized near the $53 per barrel level. The Australian Dollar is among the winners today after the bullish employment report, while the Dollar also recovered as the unemployment claims number and the consumer sentiment index were both favorable.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum and Dash moved higher by double digits so far today, as Dash rebounded off the strong 6o support once again while Ethereum is edging closer to its highs above the $50 level. Bitcoin turned lower off the resistance zone near $1215 that we have been monitoring in recent days, and it might be in for a consolidation period after the recent rally. The other major cryptocurrencies are still trading sideways, with Ripple, Monero, and Litecoin still awaiting the next significant move.

Technical Picture

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The S&P 500 is still in a holding pattern near the 2350 level despite touching the 2332 support yesterday. The MACD is still well in neutral territory, while the dominant megaphone pattern is also intact. It will be interesting to see how stock markets will behave as the Easter-weekend is drawing closer, and liquidity is expected to dry up tomorrow. Short-term traders should expect choppy conditions and a hard to trade environment until Tuesday.

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
2:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 60,900 20,300 -6,400
2:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.90% 5.90% 5.90%
3:30 CHINA Trade Balance 164 billion 76 billion -60 billion
14:30 CANADA Manufacturing Sales -0.20% -0.40% 0.6%
14:30 US PPI (monthly) -0.10% 0.00% 0.3%
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly) 234,000 242,000 234,000
15:00 US UOM Consumer Sentiment 98.0 97.1 96.9


Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
2:30 US Core CPI 0.00% 0.20%
2:30 US Core Retail Sales 0.20% 0.20%
2:30 US Retail Sales 0.10% 0.10%
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Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

  • user

    AUTHOR Ershad

    Posted on 4:42 pm April 13, 2017.

    Hi Mate,

    Regarding the upcoming french election, would you recommend selling gold when it reaches somewhere between $1300-1315 or would you recommend waiting and seeing how the french elections effect the price of gold?

    kind regards

    • user

      AUTHOR Mate Cser

      Posted on 5:00 pm April 13, 2017.

      Hi Ershad,

      great timing, a comprehensive post regarding the opportunities of the French election will be posted before the weekend. For now, I would say that follow the charts for trading and lighten your position as gold rises, yes. Still, gold is a great hedge against political risk so I would definitely hold a core position.

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