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Daily Analysis: Stocks Take a Breather before Busy Thursday

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Wednesday Market Recap

 

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2430 -0.09%
DAX 12660 0.12%
WTI Crude Oil 46.12 -4.27%
GOLD 1296.00 0.05%
Bitcoin 2810 -1.20%
EUR/USD 1.1252 -0.23%

Stock markets are slightly higher today in calm trading as investors took a step back before the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision that is scheduled for tomorrow, together with the British snap election. European markets are marginally higher after yesterday’s negative performance, with the US and Asian indices being virtually unchanged. The Qatar situation is still making waves, and causing volatility in the price of oil. Low volatility is expected to remain dominant later on today, while things could get bumpy tomorrow, especially in late-trading.

Safe-haven assets are mixed after yesterday’s rally, with Gold consolidating just below the $1300 level while the Yen still trending lower against the Euro and the Dollar. The Euro dipped suddenly during the morning session, on reports that the ECB will cut its inflation forecast tomorrow, which could mean even easier monetary conditions. The Great British Pound is up by a healthy margin as the polls show the stabilization of the gap between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party one day before the referendum.

WTI Crude Oil 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil’s decline is accelerating in US trading, as the already shaky OPEC production cut deal might get under pressure, while US inventories showed a surprising rise after a series of bullish releases. Industrial commodities are also down today despite the relatively good performance of Chinese stocks, as the strong downtrend in oil weighs on the segment.

Technical Picture

The DAX’s long-term uptrend seems to be in trouble lately as the MACD is showing a pretty significant negative divergence, and the latest upswing quickly reversed, with the price of the German Index falling back in the previous trading range. The short-term resistance level near 12,800 is the key for the current setup, and long-term traders are advised to get some chips off the table, as a deeper correction could be coming in the next few weeks. That said, a move above 12,800 could set up another leg up and a test of the 13,000 level, although a decline to 12,500 seems more likely.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
6:30 AUSTRALIA GDP Growth 0.30% 0.30% 1.10%
6:30 UK Halifax HPI 0.40% -0.20% -0.10%
16:00 CANADA Building Permits -0.20% 2.40% -5.80%
14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories 3.3 mill -3.1 mill -6.4 mill

 

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
1:50 JAPAN Final GDP Growth 0.60% 0.50%
3:30 AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 1.99 bill 3.11 bill
4:00 CHINA Trade Balance 336 bill 262 bill
14:30 EUROZONE ECB Interest Rate Decision 0 0
14:30 EUROZONE ECB Monetary Statement
14:30 CANADA NHPI Index 0.30% 0.20%
Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 465 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Altcoins

Litecoin Price Analysis: LTC/USD Set for Another Potential Explosive Move North as Bulls Penetrate Pennant Pattern

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  • Litecoin price on Saturday is seen holding decent gains of over 3% at the time of writing, as the bulls continue their latest push north.
  • Fundamental prospects surrounding the Litecoin Foundation remain strong and supportive of the price recovery.

LTC/USD since last week has been on a decent push to the north; the price has gained well over 40% since 7th February. A breakout kicked-started the previous week after the bulls managed to escape a narrowing daily range-block. LTC/USD was contained within the tightening structure from 11th January right up to 7th February, which then saw an explosive move shortly after. In terms of the range, this was seen at a high of $35 down to a low $29.

Between 10-11th February, Litecoin managed to see its highest levels since 14th November, which demonstrated its recovery. Price action over the last few sessions has been somewhat consolidating while maintaining the new heights. As a result, LTC/USD has formed a bullish pennant structure following the long pole from 8th February gains. Given the current formation, the price does appear to be subject to further upside movements.

Adoption Progress – Litecoin

Earlier this week, Spend App announced iit would begin supporting Litecoin. The Spend App currently facilitates users to buy, sell and pay with Litecoin in more than 40 million locations, a massive step towards mainstream adoption. According to Spend’s official website, card transactions can be performed in 180 countries.

The company tweeted, “Litecoin is now available on the SpendApp. You can buy, sell and pay with Litecoin with your linked bank account. Spend LTC at 40+ million locations with the Spend Wallet by instantly converting to fiat with the Spend Visa Card!”

Pricing in Litecoin’s ‘Halving’

In August of this year, Litecoin is expected to see it’s second ‘Halving’. In a PoW, or proof of work blockchain, halving results in the miner’s reward being cut in half. Although the halving causes miners’ reward to be reduced, they tend to Bboost the price of an asset over the longer-term.

The inventor of bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, introduced the halving feature to protect against inflation. Besides, he wanted to ensure that not all of the blocks were mined so soon. Similarly to bitcoin, Litecoin has a cycle of “halving”. What will happen is at predetermined blocks, Litecoin’s mining reward will reduce. It will be Litecoin’s second halving, as the first one occurred back on 25th August 2015. At the time miners rewards went down from 50 LTC to 25 LTC, this time round miners reward will be 12.5 LTC.

Technical Review – LTC/USD

LTC/USD daily chart.

As detailed earlier, LTC/USD is subject to an extended move higher should the market bulls breakout of the pennant pattern. The upper part of the structure can be seen tracking around $44.00; this must be broken down to see a more significant wave of buying pressure. Looking to the north, the next realistic target for the bulls will likely be the psychological $50.00 mark. The price has not been up at these heights since 14th November 2018.

In terms of support, it is observed at the lower acting trend line of the pennant structure, $41.50. If this fails to hold a complete reversal of the latest run of gains may be seen. LTC/USD would then likely be forced to return down to the low $30 region.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 123 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Altcoins

NEO Price Analysis: NEO/USD Bulls Eyeing an Explosive Move Higher as Cryptocurrency Enters Western Markets

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  • NEO/USD bulls are penetrating overhead resistance of a triangular pattern formation.
  • NEO Global Development (NGD) has set up an office in Seattle, Washington, keen to break into the Western markets.

NEO/USD: Recent Price Behaviour

The NEO price over the past week has managed to see some upside momentum, having gained around 25% since 7th February. At the time of writing, NEO/USD is running towards another session in the green, which would make it nine in the last ten. This is the best run of gains observed since the crypto market uptrend of December 2018.

In terms of the latest push to the north, NEO/USD bounced off a critical near-term supporting ascending trend line, which makes up a triangular pattern structure. It began the formation of this back in mid-December 2018 when the bulls entered a decent path of upside. However, the bulls eventually ran out of steam and were forced to narrow and trade within the confinements of the mentioned pattern.

NEO Looking to Make Ground in Western Markets

The team at NEO is taking serious steps towards expansion into U.S. markets, following its latest announcement to open an office in Seattle. This is the site of the new NEO Global Development (NGD) office. NGD will begin immediately recruiting for the new set up, which is going to be headed up by ex-Microsoft executive John deVadoss.

NEO is hosting its 2019 DevCon in Seattle, Washington between 16th February through to 17th. There is much anticipation around the announcing and details of NEO 3.0. As it currently stands, no clear specifications about the upgrade have been disclosed. Previously, NEO co-founder Erik Zhang said:

“NEO 3.0 will be an entirely new version of the NEO platform built for large scale enterprise use cases. It will provide a higher TPS and stability, expanded APIs for smart contracts, optimised economic and pricing models, and much more. Most importantly, we will entirely redesign NEO’s core modules.”

More on DevCon: NEO Price Update: Bulls Take Control as Anticipation for DevCon Builds.

Technical Review – NEO/USD

NEO/USD daily chart.

The NEO/USD price continues to trade within the earlier described triangular structure, demonstrating signs of late for a possible breakout higher. The markets bulls have been testing the upper acting trend line of the pattern; given the recent penetration, one would suggest a subsequent breach is likely. The resistance is currently tracking at $8.60; a break and daily closure above could invite another wave of buying pressure.

Further to the north, eyes would be on a retest of the significant psychological area of $10.00. The price last peaked up at these heights on 9th January, before running into sellers and being forced back south. At the time this was the highest NEO/USD had reached since 20th November. A push above this will then call into action $13.00, where the price consolidated briefly during the heavy November selling. Lastly, a return to the pre-November fall levels near $20.00 would be the next likely target.

Disclaimer: The author owns Bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 123 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Another Spike Fails in Crypto-Land

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The major cryptocurrencies continue to follow the pattern which consists of sudden spikes followed by choppy sideways periods. Today, the top coins jumped higher, with the strongest currencies testing their recent swing highs, but the move quickly failed. The market continues to be dominated by low liquidity and the bearish long-term forces, making it difficult to make money trading the long side.

That said, the short-term break-outs, which were formed one week ago, remain intact and our trend model is also on short-term buy signals in the case of the relatively stronger coins. Despite the buy signals, traders should remain cautious with new positions, as the long-term forces continue to work against bulls here.

The leadership of last week’s move continues to be weak and without a new batch of coins hitting new short-term highs, it’s hard to see what could propel the market higher. The top 3 coins haven’t been able to pull their weight either, so odds clearly favor the continuation of the bear market from a broader perspective.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin remains stuck below the $3600 level despite today’s spike, and the bearish drift that started last week in the coin continues. BTC’s relative weakness is a negative sign for the whole segment, and although it’s still above the support/resistance zone just north of $3450, the long-term setup continues to point of the $3250 and $300o support levels.

That said, the short-term buy signal is still in place in our trend model, and traders could open small, speculative positions in BTC, with strong resistance zones being ahead near $3850 and between $4000 and $4050.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has also been showing relative weakness in recent days, and today it dipped back below the key $0.30 support/resistance level following the failed rally attempt. While the coin once again avoided a move towards the next main level of interest at $0.28, it is still likely to violate that level and test the August low near $0.26.

With that in mind, traders should stay away from XRP, with our trend also being on short- and long-term trend signals, and barring a move above $0.32, the immediate outlook is also negative, with further resistance levels ahead near $0.3550 and $0.3750.

Litecoin Tests $44 Level Again as Ethereum Clings to $120

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

After settling down near the $41 price level, last week’s star LTC spiked as high as $44 today, but it failed to break-out above the key resistance zone. While the break-out remains intact and the MACD indicator still only points to a correction, the market-wide trends remain negative, and the previously leading coin hasn’t shown signs of relative strength in the last couple of days.

Traders could still hold their positions here even though a swing low is not yet confirmed, but strict rsik management rules should still be applied. A move back below $38 would trigger a downgrade in our trend model, which is still on a short-term buy signal. Above the initial resistance at $44, further levels are ahead near the recent swing high near $46 and at $51, while support below $38 is found near $34.50 and between $30 and $30.50.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum has been trading in a narrow range today and the recent short-term swing high capped the rally attempt in the second largest coin. While the coin is still holding on to most of its gains from last week, trading well above the $112 level, the lack of bullish follow-through is a negative sign even regarding the short-term outlook.

The hostile long-term setup raises the odds of a failed short-term rally, and although pour trend model remains on a short-term buy signal, traders should only consider small, speculative positions here. The $120 level continues to be at the center of attention, with another strong resistance above that being found near $130, while further support is found in the $95-$100 zone.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 465 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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