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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Stocks Quiet But French Election Looms

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Wednesday Market Recap

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Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2346 0.35%
DAX 12028 0.24%
WTI Crude Oil 52.80 -0.04%
GOLD 1279.00 -0.32%
Bitcoin 1202 -0.81%
EUR/USD 1.0709 0.17%

 

Stock markets bounced back slightly from their Tuesday lows, as no new developments surfaced regarding the US-North Korean conflict. Despite the calm conditions, tensions are high under the surface, as the French presidential election keeps traders worried. The option skew of the Euro STOXX 50 index which shows the amount of protection bought by options traders, spiked higher than before the Brexit vote, as the latest polls continue to show a very tight race.

The Great British Pound continued higher yesterday after the surprising announcement by Theresa May, although the Euro is slightly weaker compared to its peers. Safe-haven assets retreated somewhat, as geopolitical tensions eased, with gold and the Japanese Yen both drifting lower from their multi-month highs. Oil continues to consolidate near its recent highs, although commodity-related currencies like the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar remain under clear pressure.

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Option hedging in the EU-STOXX 50 Index (source: Zerohedge)

NEM exploded to a new all-time high today taking over Monero concerning market capitalization after the 30% jump. Ethereum Classic also popped up on the cryptocurrency-radar once again today, with yet another break-out to a ten-month high this morning. The altcoin is right at the $3 level, as trading volumes continue to rise. The other majors are little changed so far today, only Ripple is down by a meaningful amount, but it remains well inside its dominant trading range.

Ethereum Classic 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX has been drifting lower for the past two weeks after losing its relative strength. European stocks might remain under pressure this week, investors remain cautious ahead of the first round of the French election. The long-term uptrend line has been broken, putting the long-term trend in danger, while the MACD indicator is headed to a slightly oversold territory. The S&P 500 had a choppy, but slightly more bullish week so far, as it trades below the crucial 2350 level, following last week’s breakdown.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

 

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:00 EUROZONE Final CPI 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
16:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -1 million -1 million -2.2 million

 

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
14:30 US Philly Fed Index 25.6 32.8
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 241,000 234,000
17:30 US BOE Governor Carney Speaks
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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Ershad

    April 19, 2017 at 5:36 pm

    Hi mate what are your views regarding the movement of gold and the French elections? Is the price of gold likely to reach the $1310-1320 due to the upcoming elections in France or fall?

    Thanks
    Ershad

    • Mate Cser

      April 19, 2017 at 6:33 pm

      Hi Ershad,

      as for me, I’m out of gold for now (short-term, I have a core long-term position), as the momentum faded this week. That said, at the current levels, gold is a good way to play a negative outcome on the French election. Sadly, I don’t know what the results will be, but the $1315 level will be easily achievable given a negative outcome. The polls are so close that I don’t think that gold will hit $1315 before the election, but a strong reaction is expected from markets due to the uncertainty.

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Analysis

Bitcoin’s Record-Breaking Rally Continues as Prices Cross $8,100

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Bitcoin surged to new highs on Sunday, as the world’s largest crypto by market cap continued to generate bids following the cancellation of Segwit2x.

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BTC/USD Price Levels

The value of a single bitcoin reached a daily high of $8,110.59, its best level on record. At press time, BTC/USD was valued at around $8,002 for a gain of 4%.

With the gain, bitcoin’s market cap now exceeds $133 billion. That’s roughly $100 billion greater than Ethereum, the market’s second most valuable cryptocurrency.

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Bitcoin has added more than $1,100 over the past five sessions. It was down around $5,600 just one week ago.

Bitcoin Cash (BCH), a digital currency alternative that broke away from the original blockchain Aug. 1, was down 5.1% at $1,185. BTC and BCH locked horns earlier this month after the Segwit2x hard fork was abandoned.

$10,000 and Beyond?

Institutional clearing platform LedgerX has initiated its first long-term bitcoin futures option, which is set to expire Dec. 28, 2018. In setting up the option, LedgerX is assuming a price of $10,000 at the time of expiration. That’s a 25% premium on current levels.

Investors who buy the option are essentially saying they believe prices will exceed $10,000 by the time of expiration.

Bitcoin is being helped by growing institutional demand for the digital currency, as hedge funds, day traders and other mainstream investment outfits look to access this burgeoning asset class. CBOE and CME Group have each announced plans to integrate bitcoin into more conventional investment vehicles in the coming months.

The rush of institutional money into bitcoin is a sure sign that the digital asset class is becoming too big to ignore. The value of all cryptocurrencies in circulation has already exceeded $230 billion, with more than a dozen coins valued at $1 billion or more. Nine others have a market cap of $500 million or greater.

Coinbase Responds

The rise of institutional capital has also compelled Coinbase to introduce a custodial service targeted at account holders with more than $10 million in assets. This service targets hedge funds and other institutions that have remained largely on the sidelines of the crypto revolution.

In a recent blog post, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced that the new service will launch sometime next year.

“When we speak with these institutions, they tell us that the number one thing preventing them from getting started is the existence of a digital asset custodian that they can trust to store client funds securely,” Armstrong wrote.

In addition to maintaining the minimum $10 million asset requirement, institutions must pay a $100,000 setup fee to gain access tot he Custodial program. In response, institutional investors will receive assurance that their assets are secure.

The Coinbase Custody website lists broad support for bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Litecoin (LTC), as well as ERC20 tokens. The ERC20 protocol has emerged as the favorite for startups launching initial coin offerings (ICOs), a controversial crowdfunding model that has already overtaken early stage venture capital.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

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Cryptocurrencies

Is Ethereum Ready to Play Catch Up With Bitcoin?

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In mid-June of this year, the difference between the market capitalization of bitcoin and Ethereum had narrowed down to less than $8 billion. This had many market participants excited. They expected Ethereum to dethrone bitcoin as the leader, a move popularly termed as flippening.

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Key observations

  1. Ethereum has hugely underperformed bitcoin
  2. The chart pattern suggests that Ethereum is likely to play catch up in the next few months
  3. Stay on the long side of Ethereum to benefit from the bullish setup

However, fast forward five months and the difference in the market capitalization of the top two cryptocurrencies has increased to about $96 billion. This shows that while bitcoin has raced ahead in the past few months, Ethereum has hugely lagged behind.

However, is the underperformance about to end?

The chart pattern shows that Ethereum is likely to embark on a rally of its own that can carry it to $645 to $670 levels in the next few months. Let’s see how we arrived at these levels.

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Ethereum opened trading at $8.16 on January 1, 2017. It started its rally in March and by June 12, it reached a high of $420, an astronomical rally of about 5047%. Thereafter, it entered a period of consolidation, digesting the gains.

On the charts, Ethereum has formed a large symmetrical triangle, which usually acts as a continuation pattern. The breakout is generally in the direction of the long-term trend, or the trend that was prevailing before the pattern formed. In this case, the sharp move from January to June confirms that the cryptocurrency was in an uptrend before forming the triangle.

However, this is not a fool proof trade because sometimes the symmetrical triangle acts as a reversal pattern. Therefore, the best way to play this trade is to wait for a breakout of the triangle before initiating any trade.

Where can we take an entry?

Currently, the resistance line of the triangle is at about $378 levels, a level close to today’s intraday highs. The bears are likely to strongly defend this level. However, if the bulls breakout of $378 and manage to close above the resistance line, the trade on the long side will set up.

Different traders use different methods to confirm whether the breakout is valid or not. Some wait until price moves 3% above the breakout level, others wait for three consecutive closes above the resistance level.

However, we have observed that the best breakouts never look back, hence, waiting for three days may lead to a missed opportunity. Therefore, we can wait for a closing above the resistance line of the triangle and initiate the long positions on the following day.

The breakout can face resistance at $400 and $420. However, we expect the virtual currency to scale both these resistances and rally towards its pattern target zone of $645 to $670.

Notwithstanding, even the most reliable patterns can fail. Therefore, our stop loss will be kept at $340. We don’t want to hang on to the trade if it falls back into the triangle. We shall raise our stops to breakeven as soon as Ethereum breaks out to new lifetime highs. From thereon, we shall trail the stops higher to protect our paper profits.

Note

The chart pattern suggests a resumption of the long-term uptrend in Ethereum. However, this will not get confirmed until the cryptocurrency breaks out and sustains above $380. Therefore, please initiate positions only on a breakout and close above the triangle. Entering presumptive trades may result in losses.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin Flirts with $8000 as Altcoin Bull Persists

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Bitcoin’s swift recovery was the main topic of the week, as the most valuable coin not just regained its steep losses, but hit a marginal new high towards the end of the period. The entire segment is experiencing capital inflows as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever after finally leaving the vicinity of the $200 billion mark.

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BTC breached the $8000 level before turning slightly lower on Friday, but despite the severely overbought daily chart, it is still trading near its all-time highs. As the long-term picture still suggests a deeper correction, investors should wait with opening new positions and traders should also control position sizes here. Key support levels are found at $7700, $7000, and $6700, while the recent key break-out level at $5000 still hasn’t been re-tested.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

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Dash is still the most bullish altcoin from a technical standpoint, despite this week’s short-term correction, as the coin is trading above its prior all-time high, and this weekend, it looks ready to test the break-out high near $500. Support levels are still found at $400, $360, and $330, and as the long-term picture is approaching overbought territory, investors should only hold on to their positions here.

DASH/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The other major altcoins are also mostly in bullish setups, with some of them already in the latter stages of this cycle, like Monero and IOTA, but elsewhere in the segment, there are still opportunities for both traders and investors. Let’s see the detailed long-term view.

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