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Daily Analysis: Stock Rally Fades as Walmart Weighs on Sentiment

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Monday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2715 -0.73%
DAX 12,487 0.81%
WTI Crude Oil 61.56 0.02%
GOLD 1331.00 -1.84%
Bitcoin 11720 6.24%
EUR/USD 1.2336 0.61%

It’s been another very hectic session in US equities, with the main indices diverging substantially, as it has been the case ever since the market made it back to the key break-down levels of the crash two weeks ago. The rally through those key levels was not an easy feat, as we expected, and although the Nasdaq cleared the hurdle last week, and even added a bit to its gains today in early trading, the S&P 500 and the Dow failed to follow the tech benchmark.

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dow has been pushed lower by Wal-Mart (WMT) throughout the day, as the retail giant (now officially named Walmart) disappointed with its earnings report, with especially the crucial on-line segment missing the growth estimates, putting WMT’s quest against Amazon into doubt. Jeff Bezos’s crown jewel popped higher after the release and that helped to widen the gap between the Dow and the Nasdaq.

WMT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

A monster-sized Treasury issuance was the other main event of the day, as bond markets are still nervous because of the rapid rise in yields, but the market absorbed the bonds without any major issues and yields finished the day little changed.

We maintain our bearish short-term view on stocks, despite the strength in the Nasdaq, and a test of the correction lows still seems likely in the coming weeks, but as the long-term uptrend is still intact short positions should still be treated as counter-trend trades, with strict risk management.

Forex Markets and Commodities

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar, which rallied strongly in early trading, remained stable compared to its main peers amid the Treasury issuance and the stock sell-off, with even the safe-haven Yen failing to rally against the Greenback. The reserve currency gained significant ground against commodity-related Aussie and Loonie too, and we expect that trend to continue, should the re-test in the stock indices materialize.

Oil had a mixed session, with an early rally and a late sell-off, similarly to stocks, as the further escalation of the Syrian conflict remains a gloomy option for the Middle East, while the broader market trends and the US supply surge are pushing the price of crude lower.

Gold also pulled back yet again of its rally highs, continuing its correction, as the Dollar strength hurt precious metals despite the late-day risk-off shift.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment had a mixed day, with Bitcoin gaining and most altcoins losing ground, in the wake of the bullish news flow surrounding the largest coin. The slight increase in volatility in US stocks “spilled over” to the crypto market in late trading, with most coins finishing the US session on a negative note.

While the losses were relatively small in most valuable digital currencies like Ethereum, Ripple, NEO, Bitcoin Cash, and Cardano, the real outlier was Litecoin, which pushed above $250 after breaking-out from its short-term correction, while also weathering the late-session sell-off.

Stellar/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar and IOTA were the weakest majors, losing more than 5% on the day. Stellar now gave back most of its post-crash relative strength, as it remains stuck in a broad declining trend, although it is still well above the crash lows, and a break-out remains likely in the coming week, similarly to the other slightly lagging coins.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 352 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Stocks Pull Back as China Exits Trade Talks

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Global stock markets have spent the better part of the day in the red, although the losses are muted, and markets are slightly choppy before Wednesday’s Fed meeting. China pulled out of the scheduled trade talks with the US following last week’s tariff-escalation and that put pressure on risk assets globally. Chinese and Japanese markets were closed today, and that also attributed to the lower than usual liquidity and trading activity.

Dow 30 Index Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

European Central bank President Mario Draghi warned of a “vigorous” pick-up in inflation, which triggered a selloff in the dollar and bonds across the globe, while putting more pressure on risk assets too. The dollar almost regained all of its losses since Draghi’s speech and with the looming fed decision in mind, further choppy and nervous trading is expected in the Greenback, especially following the recent surge in Treasury yields.

Russell 2000, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dow and the S&P 500 both continued to retreat off last week’s record highs, as Friday’s trend resumed, and despite the bounce in the market leading tech giants, the Nasdaq is also lower. On a negative note, small-caps are trading at a 1-month low, as measured by the Russell 2000, which could mean that the US market might be ready to roll over into a correction.

The main European indices are holding on to most of last week’s gains in the meantime, but only the energy segment is clearly positive today, with the help of the strong rally in the price of crude oil.

Dollar and Euro in Focus Before the FED

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The EUR/USD pair will see fireworks for sure this week, and although the pair reached the 1.18 level today, it’s still in a zone with strong resistance and bulls still can’t conclude a successful breakout, with the 1.1675 level still being close form a technical perspective. For now, the short-term uptrend is intact, but a quick move below 1.1750 could mark a reversal.

Emerging market currencies are mixed, with the Turkish Lira trading notably higher thanks to the possible release of Pastor Brunson, who has been a major catalyst for the diplomatic troubles between the US and Turkey. The release of the Pastor could stabilize the currency, but another major global risk-off shift could hurt the vulnerable country again, as yields continue to rise globally.

WTI Crude Oil Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

As Saudi Arabia basically ignored Trump’s call for lower oil prices, the recent strength in the commodity culminated in a break-out to new 10 week highs in the WTI contract, which topped the $72 per barrel level for the first time since early July. Natural gas hit $3, and it is on the verge of breaking out to a new 7-month high too, as the whole energy segment is rallying.

Elsewhere in the commodity segment, the Dollar’s choppy price action led to a mixed picture, with copper pulling back slightly from last week’s highs, while gold is still fighting to stay above the $1200 per ounce level as it has been the case for several weeks now.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 352 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bullish Continuation Patterns for Lisk and Waves

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Last month, we ran a series of articles about altcoins that broke out from patterns that have kept them bearish for most of the year. A few days after the breakouts, rallies faded. It caused many to feel that the breakouts were bull traps. Many of the altcoins we covered showed signs of weakness. Some even went below the price level.

In technical analysis, breakout rallies always fade. Many assets tend to revisit the breakout price level or even breach it. What you need to look for to remain confident in your investments are continuation patterns. These structures would tell you that the pullback is temporary and the uptrend is still intact.

In this article, we look at continuation patterns for Lisk and Waves.

Lisk/Bitcoin Analysis  

The Lisk/Bitcoin pair (LSK/BTC) broke out of a large falling wedge on the daily chart on August 15, 2018. This happened after bulls breached resistance of 0.00046. Because of the breakout, the pair managed to rally to as high as 0.00088636 on August 29. At that level, bottom pickers and breakout traders started to take profits. Consequently, the market pulled back.

Daily chart of LSK/BTC

Now, LSK/BTC dropped to as low as 0.000422 on September 20. As a result, many stop losses were triggered. You can infer this because of the significant rise in volume. However, those who cut their losses were badly whipsawed. The pair closed the day at 0.00051683, which is still a level above the breakout.

Seasoned traders would have instead bought the dip instead of cutting losses. That’s because LSK/BTC is forming a bullish flag on the daily chart. This is a pattern that conveys consolidation in preparation for the next move up. In other words, the market remains bullish. It just needs to establish a new base to keep its ascent sustainable.

Waves/Bitcoin Analysis

The Waves/Bitcoin pair (WAVES/BTC) took out resistance of 0.000286 on August 12, 2018. The price action triggered the breakout from the large falling wedge on the daily and weekly charts. The breakout inspired a rally to 0.000367 on August 13. At this price, the breakout rally faded as many took profits.

As heavy selling commenced, Waves/Bitcoin slid to as low as 0.00029 on September 7. This drop would have made many investors nervous. Fortunately, bulls held their ground. That’s because the market was creating a bullish pennant on the four-hour chart.

WAVES/BTC four-hour chart

After the breakout rally faded, Waves/Bitcoin range traded between 0.000367 and 0.00029. As you can see on the chart, bulls defended 0.00029 multiple times. This was a very encouraging signal. It tells us that participants are buying as close to the breakout as possible. Once the market finally realized this, WAVES/BTC exploded.

Now, WAVES/BTC appears to be in the midst of creating another bullish continuation pattern. It is very likely to explode again soon.

Bottom Line

In technical analysis, breakouts rallies fade more often than not. Many assets tend to revisit the breakout while others go below it. If you want to remain confident in your investments, look for continuation patterns. These structures tell us that the altcoin is consolidating in preparation for the next move up.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 239 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Market Stabilizes as Ripple Craze Fades

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The major cryptocurrencies had crazy Friday, with the skyrocketing Ripple in the center of attention. XRP more than doubled in 24 hours, and the coin was up 3 times off its low from earlier this month before entering a correction in the second half of the day. Ripple briefly took over Ethereum as the second largest coin by market capitalization, even as ETH also hit an almost three-week high amid the broad rally in the segment.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

XRP settled down above the $0.50 level near the market cap of ETH, but short-term the coin is severely overbought, and a pullback to the $0.42-$0.46 zone is still very likely even if the coin manages to hold on to its stellar gains and enter long-term rising trend. For now, a long-term trend change is not confirmed, despite the huge bullish move, with most of the segment still being in bearish long-term trends.

That said, the short-term buy signal is still intact in our trend model, and should the overbought readings get cleared, traders could enter new positions again. Support levels are found near $0.54, $0.51, while resistance is ahead near $0.57, $0.64, and $0.75.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin got up to $6750 yesterday, but so far, it failed to overcome the resistance zone near that price level, and the coin is now trading in a shallow short-term correction. BTC needs to stay above the $6500 support to maintain the break-out that followed Ripple’s surge and to remain on a buy signal in our trend model.

The fact that correlations are still declining between the coins is a positive sign, but the overall bearish picture in the segment and Bitcoin’s proximity to the key long-term zone still warrant caution here. Further resistance zones are now ahead near $7000 and between $7200 and $7300, while support below $6500 is still found at $6275, $6000, and near $5850.

Altcoins Pull Back with Ripple, Short-Term Setup Still Promising

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum finally broke above the key $235 support/resistance level thanks to yesterday’s broad rally, and the coin reached the next major resistance zone near $260 as expected after the bullish move. Now the dominant declining trendlines are not far away, so traders should reduce their positions, since the long-term trend is still clearly bearish.

A test of the lows is still in the cards in the coming weeks, and the coin remains on a long-term sell signal despite the short-term rally.  Support is found near $200, $180, at the low near$170, and at $160, while further resistance is ahead between $275 and $$280 and at $300.

Stellar/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stellar was among the strongest coins during yesterday’s rally, following Ripple higher, but now it is testing the key support/resistance zone between $0.2375 and $0.25 after entering a correction together with the broader market.

That said, the break-out is intact in Stellar, and traders could hold on to their positions here. Support levels are found near $0.21, $0.1930, and $0.1830, while further resistance is ahead near $0.2650 and $0.2850.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 352 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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