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Daily Analysis: Rolling Over?

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Tuesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2768 -0.74%
DAX 12,221 -1.59%
WTI Crude Oil 60.89 -0.77%
GOLD 1327.00 0.45%
Bitcoin 9,100 -0.31%
EUR/USD 1.2392 0.52%

Until the opening bell on Wall Street, it seemed that last week’s trends are set to continue, with the Nasdaq leading the way higher, in a two-faced environment, with the rest of the market struggling to keep up with the tech giants.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

But despite the tame inflation report, this was the day when the negative divergences finally started to matter, and the broader market rolled over with European stock futures plunging heavily amid the Euro strength.

Dow Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The prior weakness of the international benchmarks was so pronounced the DAX is only a few hundred points above the prior collection low after one negative US session, while the Nasdaq is just off its all-time high, more than 10% clear of the February low.

Volatility Index (VIX), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Volatility Index (VIX) ticked higher amid the risk-off shift, hitting 17 near the end of the session, while Treasury yields fell, especially on the long end of the curve, further flattening the yield curve. We think that this is a good time to cut back exposure to the Nasdaq and the other US indices for those who traded the short-term buy signals, while those who entered short positions on the laggards today, as we noted earlier could hold, as a downswing likely started.

Yen and Gold Bounce Back as Euro Remains Strong

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar index drifted lower for the third day in a row, as the EUR/USD pair has been bid ever since Friday’s employment report, while the Yen, which started the day on a negative note bounced back to unchanged as equities sold off.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Risk-on currencies also pulled back, while the brief strength in crude oil faded away, and that also points to another leg of the correction, rather than a dip in a new bull run, as the Nasdaq’s chart might suggest. Gold also remained strong, as the exit of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson caused some nervousness, but the precious metal is still ways off its recent highs near $1350, as the consolidation continues in its market.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment, and especially Bitcoin has been trading in a very unusual way today, as although yesterday’s late sell-off has been aborted by strong buying near the $9000 price level in the most valuable coin, the market hasn’t been able to gain any positive momentum since then. The choppy range could be a sign of a bottoming process, but the broad weakness in altcoins suggests that the road ahead could still be bumpy for bulls, despite the relative strength of a few majors.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

For now, the short-term trend is neutral, and although the long-term setup still points to a continuation of the recovery that started in early February, short-term traders should still keep some gunpowder dry, until more signs of strength pop up.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 420 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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Analysis

2018 Top Stocks

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By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets

As 2018 is heading towards its end, one can say it was a harsh year for stock investors. The major US indices are on track for yearly losses, while over 2017 they were 30% up. Let us see, however, which companies were the biggest gainers in 2018, with the largest yield, excluding the dividends.

Traditionally, biotech companies are leaders, with thousands of percent YoY growth; however, one would surely rather buy shares of a famous company with a solid track record than make wild guesses whether a new biotech starlet will rise from a few cents to a few bucks or not. The cannabis-related companies were among the leaders this year, too, with their yield growing by 1,000% or even more right after IPO’s; Tilray (NASDAQ: TLRY), for instance, added 1,500% just in two months. This was more like of a bubble, however, that finally did explode, with the price going back to its normal levels.

Apart from the unknown and small companies, the top gainer is Twilio Inc. (NYSE: TWLO), which rose by impressive 306% over 2018.

Founded in 2008 and headquartered in San Francisco, CA, Twilio is a tech company that develops online communication software. It successfully ran its IPO on NASDAQ in 2016. Since then, its earnings have always beaten the analysts’ expectations, reaching a total of $169M, from initial $64M.

MongoDB (NASDAQ: MDB), another tech company, is second. Mongo was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in New York City.

In 2017, it ran its IPO, but it was not until February 2018 that its share price suddenly went massively higher – the yield rise totaling 201%. The earnings report released in early 2018 attracted a lot of new investors, as the company beat many analysts’ expectations.

Tabula Rasa HealthCare Inc (Nasdaq: TRHC), yet another tech company, takes third place. This one was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Moorestown, NJ. The company operates only in the US, developing various healthcare technologies. Over 2018, Tabula Rasa HealthCare stock price rose 169%.

While some tech companies rising nicely, the whole sector has been desperately down.

Social media giant Twitter (NYSE: TWTR) went up by 65%, but at the same time, Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) lost 18%, under pressure coming from both privacy scandals and the shortage of new users.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDEXDJX: DJI) failed to rise by even 1% in 2018, losing instead around 0.91%. However, some companies included into this index managed to rise by dozens of percent.

Speaking about the biggest losers, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) takes the ‘lead’ here, with a 31% fall over 2018. The bank is followed by IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), that also failed to rise and plunged by 21.30% and 20.00%, respectively.

Just like the DJIA, the S&P 500 has been down so far, losing 1.68%. Still, some companies included into this index managed to rise by as much as 60%.

The worst S&P performer was General Electric (NYSE: GE), which is now attempting to reduce costs and stay in the market; it looks like investors do not trust this company enough, though, that’s why General Electric has lost almost 60% so far this year.

The best performer among indices in 2018 is Nasdaq 100, which added nearly 4%. Among the leading companies in this index, one should note Amazon, Illumina, Netflix, O’reilly, Twenty-First Century Fox, and Workday, all rising by over 40% YoY.

Meanwhile, the Chinese JD.com Inc (NASDAQ: JD) lost 47%, mostly because of the Sino-US trade war. Besides, its CEO, Liu Qiangdong, was arrested being accused of sexual harassment, which added pressure to the company and reduced the trust among the investors. In case Liu is sent to jail, the risks for JD.com will increase drastically.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 21 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, I went on to continue my education in post graduate. Later I worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped me to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. I'm a pro in the financial field and the author of articles for various international media. I also hold the position of Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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Altcoins

EOS Price Analysis: EOS is Set Up for Bigger Gains, Following Recent Technical Development

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  • EOS has jumped around 45% between the sessions of 15th – 17th December. 
  • Bulls shrug off all negative related news flow that has surrounded EOS in recent weeks.

The EOS/USD bulls are on a serious mission to recovery. Unlike several of its peers, a slowdown in momentum has not been seen with the EOS price. More importantly, a breakout has been observed from a range-block, of which EOS/USD was confine within. This had been the case since the 7th December, managing to escape however on 17th and capitalize further on that.

EOS Shakes off Negative Commentary

Over the past few weeks, there have been several negative bits of news flow. Recently, as covered by Hacked in a prior article, the Cardano founder, Charles Hoskinson, had a fair few words to say about EOS. He had noted that action from regulators was potentially right around the corner for EOS. Hoskinson had specifically raised concerns about the EOS token sale.

Elsewhere, it was recently covered by Chinese press that EOS decentralized apps (DApps) have been victim to hacks totaling around $1 million since July. The report cited data which was collected by PeckShield, who are a blockchain security organization. This suggests that the DApps on EOS have been hit by at least 27 breaches from July up to late November. This is an amount of 400,000 EOS, equivalent to 8 million yuan, at the time of the published report.

Lastly, at the back-end of last month, there was some FUD surrounding the CTO of Block.one, Daniel Larimer. The community and social media space were concerned about Larimer working on new projects. This prompted worries that he may be leaving EOS, keeping in mind the EOS mainnet hadn’t even reached a year.

EOS has pretty much shrugged much of this FUD off, as seen with this latest rally. It has far outperformed its peers with the big gains collected over the past two sessions.

Technical Review EOS/USD

EOS/USD daily chart

EOS/USD had a decent extension to the upside after breaching the confinements of the detailed range-block.  The bulls initially jumped a chunky 45% over the period of 15th to the 17th December. However, into the session on Tuesday, the price has run into some minor resistance, seen at the 4th December high area. This can be noted within $2.60 territory.

The pullback being observed at the time of writing isn’t too much of a surprise, given the burst higher in such a short time frame. Profit-taking is only natural in this case. It is a minor retreat ahead of further potential moves north. Eyes will be on the breached range-block for support, the top of that seen at $2.18.

Should the bulls gather enough momentum for a push above the minor near-term resistance seen, then a fast 60% move could be seen. This would take EOS/USD back towards $4.40, where another minor supply zone is observed. Further north, a reclaim of the pre-November fall levels, i.e., $6 territory, is the next major target.

Disclaimer: The author owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.5 stars on average, based on 88 rated postsKen has over 8 years exposure to the financial markets. During a large part of his career, he worked as an analyst, covering a variety of asset classes; forex, fixed income, commodities, equities and cryptocurrencies. Ken has gone on to become a regular contributor across several large news and analysis outlets.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Ripple and Litecoin Lead Another Rally Attempt

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The last 48 hours saw a nice bounce in the cryptocurrency segment, which led to improvements in the short-term technical setup of some of the most oversold coins. While the rally, which is being spearheaded by Litecoin and Ripple, hasn’t changed the still overwhelmingly bearish long-term picture, it could be the start of a larger scale counter-trend move. We will take a closer look at the broader picture in our long-term cryptocurrency analysis, which will be released tomorrow.

The deeply oversold long-term momentum readings and the horrible sentiment in the segment could fuel a more sustained move, but until we have confirmation that the short-term trend change in the key coins, traders and investors should remain defensive even towards the relatively stronger coins.

The strongest coins should form a pattern of higher highs and higher lows before entering new positions, and for now, our trend model only shows neutral short-term readings even in the case of the leaders, and most of the coins are still on sell signals on both time-frames.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Bitcoin hit marginal new bear market lows before bouncing higher yesterday, and although the coin got close to the $3600 level, it remains in a bearish technical setup, and our trend model is still on sell signals on both time-frames.

That said, a move above primary resistance could set up a failed breakdown pattern, which could trigger a larger scale correction, but for now, traders and investors shouldn’t enter positions here. Further strong resistance is ahead between $4000 and $4050, while support is found near $3250 and $3000.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum also remains on sell signals on both time-frames despite the rally attempt, as it continues to be stuck below the key $95-$100 resistance zone. The coin is still deeply oversold from a long-term standpoint, but until a confirmed short-term trend change, odds still favor new lows in the coming weeks, and traders should stay away from Ethereum here. Further strong resistance is ahead near $120 and $120, while the next major support zone is found between $73 and $75.

Bullish Leadership Finally Forming Among Altcoins?

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin spiked as high as the $30-$30.50 support/resistance zone on Monday after breaking out above the $26 resistance level and it also broke the steep short-term downtrend line. Should the coin form a higher swing while remaining above $26, a short-term trend change would be confirmed, but for now, given the clearly bearish long-term picture, traders should wait before entering the coin’s market. Below $26, key support is found between $23 and $23.50 while the next major resistance level is ahead at $34.50.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is on a similar technical position to Litecoin, as although the sharp bounce took the coin above both the $0.30 and $0.32 resistance levels after hitting marginal new lows, a short-term trend change is not yet confirmed.

The coin needs to form a higher swing low and stay durably above $0.32 for an upgrade to buy in our trend model, and for now the long-term sell signal remains clearly in place, with the next major resistance zone is found near $0.3550.

XMR/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a negative note, only a few coins show clear technical improvements thanks to the rally attempt, and the likes of Monero, DASH, Stellar, NEO, and ETC only registered weak bounces and even in the case of the surging EOS and IOTA, the gains were only enough to regain a fraction of the recent losses.

So, while a short-term trend change could be ahead after the rout, traders should remain cautious until a clear bullish leadership is established in the segment.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 420 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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