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Daily Analysis: Qatar Receives Ultimatum as Middle East Tensions Escalate Again

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2431 -0.171%
DAX 12694 -0.77%
WTI Crude Oil 42.94 -2.42%
GOLD 1258.00 0.64%
Bitcoin 2742 1.23%
EUR/USD 1.1195 0.39%

Global stock markets are mixed once again today with European markets being notably weaker than their peers after the release of some really weak services PMIs from the Eurozone. The main US indices are virtually unchanged, sitting a few percents below their all-time highs, with trading volumes still dwindling, and volatility remaining close to all-time lows. Currency markets are more active than previously during the week, as the Dollar is experiencing its second weak day in a row, with the Fed-induced momentum gradually fading away. The Great British Pound is also on the rise against the Greenback, despite the questionable “progress” on the Brexit talks.

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Gold is on the rise again, as the Qatar-crisis that broke out somewhat out of the blue a couple of weeks ago arrived in a new phase today, after the country received an ultimatum from the states involved in the diplomatic “blockade”. The ultimatum contains 13 requirements, among them the shutting-down of Al-Jazeera, the shutting down of a Turkish military base, and the reduction diplomatic representation of Iran. The demands are, at least partly, impossible to comply with in the given limit of 10 days, and it is still unclear what the next step from Saudi Arabia and its allies will be after the deadline. Oil is unchanged and choppy amid the growing tensions, while the other commodities are higher thanks to the Dollar weakness.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies are having a bullish day, so far, as the recently struggling Ethereum found support inside its dominant consolidation pattern, and that helped the rally in altcoins that is led by the previously correcting Monero, Stratis, and Dash. BTC is still hovering around the $2700 level in a narrow range, while Ripple encouragingly recovered above the $0.30 level again. Litecoin is still just below its recent highs, refusing to correct more after the strong break-out last weekend. The total value of the coin market is nearing $115 billion again, according to Coinmarketcap, but volume is trending strongly lower, in line with the trends in other markets.

   The total market cap of the Cryptocurrency market in the past month

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:00 EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI 57.3 59.1 59.5
10:00 EUROZONE Services PMI 54.7 55.4 55.4
14:30 CANADA CPI Index 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
16:00 US New Home Sales 610,000 569,000 569,000

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
10:00 GERMANY IFO business Climate 114.6
14:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders -0.5%

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Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Up Again as Altcoins Mixed in Volatile Trading

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Bitcoin is at a new all-time high today, although the momentum of today’s move is far below from what we saw recently, and the coin only managed to reach a marginal record high yet again. BTC is now worth $300 billion, and it is still trading right at the short-term trendline, inside a rising wedge pattern that shows a clear momentum divergence.

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With the short-term trend still being intact further gains are still possible, but as all the majors are overbought from a long-term perspective, we still advise investors to wait for a better buying opportunity before adding to their holdings. Primary support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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 XRP entered a volatile short-term correction after its two-day surge after giving a short-term sell signal yesterday, and the coin spiked back towards $0.60 before settling down just below yesterday’s highs. The long-term setup also turned overbought thanks to the almost 300% rally, and now investors should reduce their holdings, even as further gains are still possible. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

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EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

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