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Daily Analysis: Pound Slammed Lower as BOE Keeps Rate Unchanged

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Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2468 -0.17%
DAX 12154 -0.22%
WTI Crude Oil 49.45 -0.30%
GOLD 1270.00 -0.15%
Bitcoin 2780 3.03%
EUR/USD 1.1875 +0.17%

The Bank of England stole the show today with the much-awaited rate decision that provided a mixed bag for the market.  With some rumors circulating about a rate hike before the meeting traders were shocked by a relatively clear vote (6-2) on keeping the interest rate at the historic low. The Pound fell sharply after the decision, and the Dollar got hammered again as well following the worse than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI that underlined the ongoing weakness in the US consumer segment. Stock markets traded in a choppy fashion amid the forex volatility with a slight bearish bias globally.

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GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The “perfect bullish storm” that hit the Euro dragged the major indices lower on the Old Continent, although the Eurozone PMIs were also on the negative side. But as the momentum is still with the common currency, the 1.20 level in the EUR/USD might be hit before a meaningful correction in the “Euro-Madness” as IGN put it. Gold and oil also are both gaining holding up in the mixed environment, despite yet another “fat finger” decline in precious metals overnight. Gold now looks poised to rally towards the key $1300 level, while oil will likely have a hard time passing the $50 level significantly.

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Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The crypto segment is looking better and better since the Bitcoin fork, as the feared event failed to break the market’s stability. The most traded majors all settling down while holding above crucial support levels after a period of uncertainty and choppy trading. Ethereum is still the biggest drag on the market as a whole, as the second biggest coin is still within its long-term correction pattern. That said, we still expect a broad bullish move in the coming weeks, with possible new highs for Bitcoin as the SegWit activation process continues.

BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The NASDAQ has been trading in a narrow range before tomorrow’s crucial Employment Report, as the busiest part of the US earnings season is drawing to an end. The better than expected report of Apple (AAPL) was not enough to maintain the bullish momentum of the tech index, as the advance got narrower and narrower, with only the mega-cap DOW hitting new highs in the past few days. We expect more weakness in the coming period and short-term traders should be looking for opportunities to enter short positions. Primary support is now found at 5850 in the NASDAQ 100, with further targets at 5800 and at 5725.

NASDAQ 100 Futures, Daily Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 AUSTRALIA Trade Balance 0.86 bill 1.77 bill 2.47 bill
10:30 UK Services PMI 53.8 53.7 53.4
13:00 UK BOE Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
13:00 UK BOE Statement
14:30 US Initial Jobles Claims 240,000 242,000 244,000
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.9 56.9 57.4
16:00 US Factory Orders 3.0% 2.7% -0.8%

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
3:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Monetary Policy Statement
3:30 AUSTRALIA Retail Sales 0.2% 0.6%
14:30 CANADA Employment Change 14,600 45,300
14:30 CANADA Unemployment Rate 6.5% 6.5%
14:30 CANADA Trade Balance -1.4 bill -1.1 bill
14:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls 183,000 222,000
14:30 US Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.4%
14:30 US Hourly Earnings 0.3% 0.2%
14:30 US Trade Balance -45.6 bill -46.5 bill
16:00 CANADA Ivey PMI 59.2 61.6

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Music: One Overlooked Use Case

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So far in this year, Ethereum has been the crypto star appreciating over 80% to a recent record of $1402. All this suggests that more and more applications are being created. We know this by the demand for Ether, the gas that drives the Ethereum network.

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The reason behind the explosion of Ether demand was confirmed by Ethereum co founder Steven Nerayoff in a CNBC interview where he claimed the number of Ethereum projects today is more than 10 times year ago levels.

One of those areas is the music business and there are several names appearing on the ICO list to add to your research agenda.

Why The Music Business Needs Help

Music may live forever but the business side has been in trouble for a long while. Over the last decade there have been only three years when the global value of music sales increased. The combination of digital music and outright pirating through peer-to-peer sharing has much to do with the long-term trend.

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Throughout the world there are 69 copyright and royalty societies given the responsibility of documenting, collecting and distributing music royalties. That means collecting a few pennies whenever a song is played on the radio, Internet or anywhere else. Four of the largest of these is in the US, followed by Japan, Germany and Britain. Their operations are truly byzantine.

Experts in the music-publishing field confirm the time between music usage and royalty payment can run close to 24 months. Even then not all royalties are distributed. According to my sources, there are often millions of dollars collected by royalty authorities everywhere that never make it to the entitled recipients. That sort of practice borders on criminal behavior but copyright and royalty societies operate in a sub-rosa manner making it difficult to understand their policies.

In the past just 4 major record labels controlled over 80% of the industry. These giants could afford a full time legal department to pursue royalty issues dominated the music industry. Today, however, independent labels represent almost one-third of the market. This means less democracy in the business with the young independent artist at a particular disadvantage.

Of course, musicians aren’t the only group of artists loosing out on their pay. There are writers, poets and painters that go largely unprotected.

The music business is just easier to track because it has more data. Yet in spite of all the information, the music industry is widely recognized for its lack of transparency. Blockchain technology has the ability to disrupt long-standing industry practices.

ICOs To The Rescue

The number of Ethereum based white knights is starting to appear on the horizon promising to rattle the industry and hopefully restore some democracy on behalf of the independent artist.

One simple business model comes from a startup SingularDTV who is attempting to build their ecosystem on top of Ethereum. Here is the basic value added proposal.

SingularDTV tokenizes the artist work. In doing so the artist is turning their music into a financial asset. Anyone who buys into an artist’s token owns a share of the creation and its income stream. The more people consume an artist creation, the higher goes the token price.

Only time will show if SingularDTV succeeds with this model. The consequence of this model is how it eliminates many of the middlemen and nefarious influences in the industry. Instead of singing on a street corner for bread, an artist could raise money upfront without relying on an advance from a record label.

According to SingularDTV, distributing content via blockchain would allow artists to skirt streaming platforms like Spotify to earn royalties on their own terms. Now that is true democracy.

SingularDTV may stand out a bit in the news due its recent ICO success in raising $8 million but they aren’t the only player in the music game. Names like Voise recently raised $1 million as well as Soundchain, Blokur and Opus to name a few.

I am no longer a registered investment advisor, which means I don’t go around making investment recommendations. So I will only suggest this group to put on your list of late night reading. Next time, I will take a closer look at more of these names.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Cryptocurrencies Start Week on a Quiet Note as NEO Shines

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The broad Bitcoin-led correction continued to dominate trading in the crypto-segment throughout the weekend, as the most valuable coin drifted sideways above the key technical level at $13,000, with dwindling trading volumes.

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BTC remains in a declining short-term pattern, although the digital currency still holds well above the mini-crash lows from December, spending almost a month now in the daily range of the year-end plunge. We still expect the largest coin to complete the current cycle with a move below the crash lows and the $10,000 level after the stellar rally of the previous months. Key support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins also settled down across the boards with only a few coins registering strong activity. Ethereum and NEO have been among the coins making headlines, as the second largest coin continued to grind, higher still trading near its recent all-time high today. The price of the ETH token is moving in a short-term uptrend, in the face of the stretched momentum indicators, but we expect a meaningful correction soon, and long-term investors should wait for a more favorable technical setup before entering new positions, with key support levels at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remained under heavy selling pressure in the meanwhile, as the oversold bounce of the weekend faded away and the coin got close last week’s lows again. As the short-term downtrend is intact, traders should stay away from entering new positions, while investors should wait for short-term sell-offs towards the main support levels at $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85 to add to their holdings.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Coins Rebound as Key Support Level Holds Bitcoin

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The $13,000 level in the price of Bitcoin continued to be the center attention of traders today, as the most valuable coin successfully tested the crucial support zone overnight, despite another brief dip below it. The other majors followed the subsequent bounce higher, with Ethereum pushing past $1250 once again, while Ripple reclaiming the $2 level.

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Despite the bounce, the short-term trend in Bitcoin is clearly bearish and the correction is still likely to continue, although the extreme long-term overbought readings are now cleared. We still expect a move towards the previous correction low near $11,300, with a likely dip below $10,000 before the end of the current cycle, with further important support levels are found at $9000, $8200, and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ripple recovered slightly after nearing the $1.50 level and reaching short-term oversold readings, and the coin tested the primary resistance level at $2.1 yesterday in late trading. The currency remains in a strong short-term downtrend despite the bounce and the continuation of the correction is likely, although long-term investors could already accumulate new positions near the main support levels at  $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum bounced of the dominant short-term trendline, but the coin remains overbought on all time-frames and we expect a trendline break in the coming days. That said, traders could hold smaller positions here with tight stops as a push towards the prior all-time high is still possible. Key support levels are found at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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