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Daily Analysis: Pound Jumps to 12-Month High amid Crypto Crash as BOE Signals Tightening

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Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2494 -0.04%
DAX 12540 -0.10%
WTI Crude Oil 49.70 0.81%
GOLD 1332.00 0.31%
Bitcoin 3331 -14.48%
EUR/USD 1.1904 0.17%

The Bank of England made headlines today, as the central bank took a huge hawkish step in its monetary meeting. Governor Carney told the press that he and the majority of the bank’s committee are leaning towards tightening in the coming months. The Great British Pound exploded higher against all of the majors after the announcement, and although the currency has already been gaining ground lately, the surprising shift could provide a huge boost. The other, Swiss, central bank meeting didn’t provide any surprises, and forex markets remained calm outside the GBP pairs.

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GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Stocks were mixed and quiet today, despite the much-awaited CPI report and that came in better than expected and the bearish Chinese Industrial Production number. The US markets were spooked by another report of a possible missile launch in North Korea, while the NASDAQ was still suffering from a mild iPhone X hangover, with the shares of Apple still drifting lower. Safe haven assets pushed slightly higher after the Korean reports, but neither gold nor the Yen gathered strong momentum, as sentiment remained bullish. The DOW hit a new all-time high under the radar, with the S&P 500 and the tech benchmark still hovering below their record levels.

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DOW, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

All of the major coins are down by double digits today on the Chinese exchange ban, as the ongoing correction in the segment reached a panicky stage. BTC plunged as low as $3300, Ethereum crashed to $225, and the rest of the most traded coins also fell below major support levels in the highly correlated environment. Volatility will likely remain very high in the coming days in the sector, and a panic bottom is likely to form after the broad 30-40% correction.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

Gold has been in an overbought correction amid the improving global sentiment, as the metal got stretched following the break-out above $1300. The key/support resistance level is a likely candidate as the target for the dip, although a decline to $1272 and the next major support zone is also possible. The commodity is trading right at the rising short-term trendline, but we expect a break below the line before the end of the correction.

Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 54,200 17,500 27,900
3:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%
4:00 CHINA Industrial Production 6.0% 6.6% 6.4%
9:30 SWITZERLAND SNB Rate Decision -0.75% -0.75% -0.75%
13:00 UK BOE Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
13:00 UK Monetary Statememnt
14:30 US CPI Index 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
14:30 US Core CPI Index 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 284,000 303,000 298,000

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
14:30 US Core Retail Sales 0.5% 0.5%
14:30 US Retail Sales 0.1% 0.6%
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.1% 0.2%
16:00 US UOM Consumer Sentiment 95.1 96.8

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Correction Continues but Uptrend Not in Danger

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The major cryptocurrencies are consolidating in a choppy range today following yesterday’s sharp pullback, with the total value of the market stabilizing near the $400 billion level. All of the largest coins found support above key support levels, keeping the bullish trend intact, as the overbought readings are being cleared.

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While the correction will likely continue and our trend model is still only neutral from a short-term perspective in the case of most of the coins, the underlying trend is positive, and we expect the recovery to resume after the dip.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin fell below the $9000-$9200 support/resistance zone during the pullback, but it remained above the $8400 level that marks the previous swing high. The MACD indicator is still showing a downswing, but it is now in neutral territory, and the coin could already be ready to resume the uptrend and aggressive traders could enter new positions, using the overnight low as a stop loss level. Below $8400, further support is found near the $7650 level, while targets are ahead at $10,000 and $10,500.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum found support just below the $600 level and moved back to the vicinity of the $625 support level holding within the steep short-term uptrend.  A break below the trendline is still likely, and a test of the $555 to $575 zone is possible after the strong rally. That said, ETH, one of the leaders of the upswing is expected to resume the recovery after the correction, and long-term investors should hold on to their coins despite the move. Further support is at $500, with targets still ahead near $735, $780, and $845.

EOS Holding Up Well Amid Broad Correction

EOS/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

EOS has been spearheading the broad rally in the segment, and the coin got close to the prior all-time high before the current correction, being the largest coin to do so since January. Although the currency retreated somewhat from the highs, it remains from a short-term perspective and traders should use tight stop losses or reduce their positions as correction risk is high here.

IOTA is the closest to giving a short-term buy signal among the majors, as it began the correction earlier and found strong support near the previous swing high, while there are no negative outliers that would hint on a failed rally off the recent multi-month lows. With that in mind, long-term investors could still use the current correction to boost their altcoin holdings.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

The Crypto Bull Is Off Of Life Support

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There may be some bad days for cryptocurrencies in the future.  There may even be a few bad weeks. But crypto markets survived the worst shellacking in their brief history.  The soon to be ending month of April is an appropriate time for Mark Twain: “Reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated”.

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Anytime an asset class gains $100 billion in value over the course just under 30 days, the death watch is over.  Anytime the largest member (bitcoin) gains 30% in value and still ends up being the weakest major performer, the crypto bull market is not only off life support, it is alive and in recovery.

Signs of Better Times

Making highly successful predictions about the direction and magnitude of stocks, bonds or cryptocurrency is a 51% proposition. What this means is that at least 49% of the time, you are going to be wrong.  

At least with stocks and bonds there is a huge database that can be massaged in the hope of  accurately predicting the future. None of that applies to crypto. So here are some of the things that create confidence that the future will be far better than the most recent past.

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Relative Value

When the stock market is near a record high,  interest rates are headed much higher and the market fear index, the VIX, suddenly shoots up, this is a clear sign of an overvalued market for conventional intangible assets.  The same can be said for tangible things like real estate.

After having lost more than half their value in something like 90 days, cryptocurrencies offer comparative value.  Most interesting is how the smallest and most speculative cryptos experienced the best performance. That type of recovery never took place in the post dotcom period.

This is a measure of long term vision investors are applying.  Many of these Gen III projects are little more than white papers and promises at this stage.  This is good to remember the next time someone drags up the notion of a crypto bubble.

Skeptics will point out the thin trading in many of these Gen III names as the underlying reason for their quantum moves.  There is probably some truth here, but simple risk analysis argues in favor of the big familiar names like bitcoin holding leadership.  Crypto investors obviously see things differently.

Cryptocurrencies Can Take A Punch

While watching the favorable price action in recent weeks, there was little obvious impact from the same regulators that contributed to the Q1 price avalanche.  What we are referring to is the April 23rd talk at the MIT Technology Review: Business of Blockchain.

The secession was headlined by an address by Gary Gensler the former chair of the CFTC. The issue at hand: are cryptocurrencies securities and thus regulated by the SEC?  In my mind, Gensler exploded a bomb: Ethereum and Ripple were securities while bitcoin fit the description of a medium of exchange.

Wow, think about this for a second.  If Ethereum was truly a security that could spell a miserable amount of registration work to conform with SEC regs.  While that would be unpleasant, the implications for the thousands of ICO tokens using the Ethereum platform could be far worse.  Fortunately, Gensler isn’t running the SEC but his legal arguments can and probably will be used at some point.

Back in February, when crypto prices were tumbling, Gensler’s comments would surely added to the fear and selling pressure.  On the day of Gensler’s talk, ether rose in price by nearly 7% according to Coinbase while Ripple gained 8%. This shows that cryptocurrency investors are learning to take a punch without losing perspective.

Trade Signs Are Good

We can all pretty much agree that we are relieved when see prices are rising.  However, when price increases are driven by higher volume, that gets technical analysts buzzing. Since the beginning of April, bitcoin transactions have increased 90% and Ethereum by 50%.  While all of this has been happening the median fee for bitcoin has been $0.16 and ETH is an even lower $0.07. While this isn’t exactly free, it is a gargantuan improvement over the $30 bitcoin investors were paying back in December.

A Two Way Street

Not every period will be as profitable as the month of April. Double digit price changes, the hallmark of this market, are part of the drill.  But even after the April rally, cryptocurrencies will still offer better value than the average Nasdaq technology stock.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.4 stars on average, based on 64 rated postsJames Waggoner is a veteran Wall Street analyst and hedge fund manager who has spent the past few years researching the fintech possibilities of cryptocurrencies. He has a special passion for writing about the future of crypto.




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Analysis

Ether in Bears’ Hands

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Ether in Bears' Hands

Ether has been doing great over the last few days, but now it’s declining again, trading at around $646, after hitting a 6-week high at $712.43. Over the last session, Ether confirmed at least two bullish trend lines at $665 and $675, which were successfully tested and broken out today. While Ether was above $700 it had some good chances to recover, but now it is quite doubtful.

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The bulls quickly gave up the support at $665 today, and now they need to push the price back to $700. This will be the only chance to hit the $712 high again.

Overall, any price above $675 will help Ether recover, while any price below will make it continue declining. $675 is actually the current resistance, while $712 is another one. $644 is the key support, with a longer term one at $574. The MACD keeps on rising and is in the positives, issuing a buy signal. The Stochastic is, on the contrary, giving a sell signal, despite also being in the positive area.

There wasn’t too much news on Ether over the last few days. Still there was some, and what is worth mentioning is the hack of MyEtherWalet, one of the most popular crypto e-wallets out there. The hackers stole 215 coins, which equals $150,000. The scheme was very simple: the thieves hacked the DNS server and then routed users to a phishing website. The issue was quickly spotted and resolved, but the mere fact the e-wallets are still so much sensitive to hacker attacks is troubling.

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Meanwhile, Massachusetts Institute of Technology has recently published a paper where the scientists analyzed three ways of ‘killing’ Bitcoin. The first one is creating a global Fed based currency, the Fedcoin, that, with the time passing, could eliminate all other cryptos, including BTC. The Bank of Canada actually went this way some time ago, by building a crypto network based on Ethereum. The second way is creating a new crypto based on the largest social networks out there, which could enable pushing out BTC from the market, given the volumes and the number of social media users. Finally, the third way is issuing a large number of cryptos, each designed for a particular purpose. This may also greatly affect the top 10 altcoins, too.

Anyway, the crypto market is still closely watched because of the high degree of anonymity and lack of (or no) regulation.

ETH/USD

Author: Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.2 stars on average, based on 2 rated postsI have two degrees in Social Psychology and Economy. After graduation I worked as the Head of the Laboratory of Technical and Fundamental Analysis of Financial Markets at The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. The experience and skills he gained helped me to realize my potential as an analyst-trader and a portfolio manager in an investment company. At the moment I'm a financial expert, writing for various financial media sources and a Chief Analyst at RoboMarkets.




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