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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Payrolls Miss Sets Up Crazy September

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2475 0.23%
DAX 12162 0.88%
WTI Crude Oil 47.09 -0.30%
GOLD 1327.00 0.54%
Bitcoin 4829 3.35%
EUR/USD 1.1901 -0.08%

After a string of relatively good economic numbers from the US, today’s employment report missed across the board, as the headline Non-Farm Payrolls number came in well below expected, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly ticked higher, and the Hourly Earnings were also disappointing. Adding insult to injury, last month’s NFP reading was also revised substantially lower, and it is hard to see how the recent problems in the consumer segment will be solved if the labor market turns weaker. US stocks aren’t too worried about growth, as it could mean that the FED will be extra cautious with both rate hikes and the announced balance sheet reduction.

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Dollar Index (DXY), 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar was back in the spotlight after the report, as the currency was sold heavily on the ugly numbers before a violent snapback rally. The Greenback recovered most of its losses against its major peers, as the Euro first got close to 1.20 than dipped back to 1.19 in a matter of minutes. Gold reached up to $1330, hitting a new rally high on the way, but it fell below $1325, as volatile trading followed the report. The first trading day of the autumn season will likely be wild, and that could set the tone of the whole month, as we are expecting fireworks following the quiet summer period. Oil is holding up well after the recent rebound, and the commodity was only hurt a little by the dismal employment figures.

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S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

Crypto investors are having another solid session, as one the last laggards of the market, Ethereum Classic finally joined the party, and surged by more than 20% so far during today’s session. Bitcoin and Litecoin hit new all-time highs in the meantime, while most of the majors are also in the green as well. While BTC’s rally is not a spectacular one, the most valuable coin now reached $4850, and it’s eying the once ridiculed $5000 mark, as the currency crossed the $80 billion capitalization level. With the always exciting crypto-weekend approaching, we still expect explosive moves, despite the increasingly risky environment.

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX briefly dipped to a new 5-month low earlier this week, and the index touched the key support zone near 11,900 that we have been monitoring in recent weeks. The benchmark quickly recovered above the 12,000 level thanks to the weakness of the Euro, and it is now testing the dominant declining trendline yet again. The picture looks set for a short-term rally towards 12,375 or 12,500, but alleys will be on the FED and the Dollar during September, especially after today’s NFP numbers.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:30 UK Manufacturing PMI 56.9 55.0 55.1
14:30 US Average Hourly Earnings 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
14:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls 159,000 180,000 209,000
14:30 US Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.3% 4.3%
16:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.3

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
10:30 UK Construction PMI 51.9
All DAY US Bank Holiday 0.2% 0.3%
All DAY CANADA Bank Holiday 180,000 209,000

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin and NEO Jump as Bitcoin Trades near $8000

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The cryptocurrency segment continued its bullish run, as the total value of the coins climbed above $230 billion for the first time ever, while Bitcoin also posted marginal new highs. The most valuable currency is still overbought regarding the long-term picture, and we continue to expect a deeper correction in the coming period, despite the recent strong rally. Support levels are still found $7700, $7000, and $6700 while the $8000 level is ahead as a major obstacle.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been the most active major besides Bitcoin, as it rallied strongly after breaking out above the key $64 resistance and it breached the next target at $75 before heading below $70 again. The coin remains in bullish long- and short-term patterns, and we expect a move above the major resistance zone ahead with the next target found at $82.50.

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Litecoin/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEO is showing strength in the second half of the session, while Monero is recovering well from a short-term dip, similarly to IOTA and Ethereum Classic. Ethereum continues to represent stability in the segment, while Ripple failed to build up momentum so far after yesterdays spike higher. With still most of the altcoins being in bullish setups, let’s see the short-term charts.

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Analysis

XRP Looking to Make a Significant Rally

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The XRP/USD pair went into a deep correction after hitting 0.29490 a month ago. It nosedived to the major support level of 0.19052. The pair consolidated for a few weeks which gave the market the legs to test resistance at 0.22924.

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Technical indicators show that the pair was ready to breach its immediate resistance, which it did this morning. Now that resistance has broke at 0.22924, it’s time to buy. This successful breakout will take the pair to 0.23997 first and 0.26563 next before hitting the target of 0.26796 which is coincidentally a major resistance level.

Technical indicators hint that the market would most likely be overbought by the time it hits 0.26796. Should it respect the major resistance level, the likelihood of the market turning extremely bearish increases. Therefore, it is recommended to closely watch your trail stops to preserve your gains.  

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Summary of Strategy

Buy: As close to 0.22924

Support: 0.22224 and 0.20081

Target: 0.26796

Stop: If the market breaches 0.20081 as next reliable support is 0.19052

 

Disclaimer: The writer owns bitcoin, Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but does not engage in short-term or day-trading.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Ripple Breaks Out as Bitcoin Tests Highs

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Cryptocurrencies are having another bullish session as the total value of the market surged to a new all-time high near $225 billion, with the help of the rally in BTC and Ripple, and despite the drop in the value of Bitcoin Cash. The most valuable coin its record high yet again after the brief but steep weekend correction, despite the still overbought long-term picture. We still urge traders and investors to wait for a deeper correction before entering new positions here, with support levels found at $7000, $6700, and $6000.

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BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple has been the other main mover of the day so far, as the coin skyrocketed on huge volume and breached the $0.26 level before turning lower and stabilizing near $0.23. The coin triggered a short-term buy signal by moving above $0.2250 and it remains bullish on both time-frames, despite the pull-back, with another major target level ahead at $0.30.

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Ripple/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The other majors are little changed expect IOTA, which further added to yesterday’s gains and reached overbought readings, while Ethereum Classic and Dash continue to drift lower in short-term correction patterns. Let’s see the detailed analysis of the short-term charts.

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