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Daily Analysis: Oil and Gold Jump on Saudi Turmoil

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Monday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2588 0.22%
DAX 13,468 -0.05%
WTI Crude Oil 57.34 3.06%
GOLD 1281.00 0.98%
Bitcoin 7133 -5.11%
He 1.1612 0.06%

While rumors have been circling about a severe inner struggle in the Saudi Royal family, the weekend’s serious crackdown caught everyone by surprise. As of now, two princes died in one day, while dozens of high-ranking officials were arrested, in what could be described as a reverse coup by crown prince Mohammad bin Salman, not unlike the events in Turkey earlier this year.

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The price of crude oil jumped to a more than two-year high following the events, as the offensive strategy of the prince puts the balance of the Middle East into jeopardy, although the fundamentals of the energy market remain highly vulnerable. Gold and natural gas also surged higher today as a consequence of the crisis, while the Japanese Yen gained ground too, thanks to increased safe-haven flows.

WTI Crude Oil, Daily Chart Analysis

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Equity markets barely budged on the turmoil, as the most important US indices are still hitting marginal new all-time highs, while European and Asian stocks are slightly lagging behind. The NASDAQ is pulling is weight with the help of Apple and Amazon, although market internals still show a strong divergence between the leaders of the rally and the majority of stocks.

Apple, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currency markets had an active session, with the Great British Pounds rebound and the Yen’s strength dominating the day. Commodity currencies, such as the Canadian Dollar and the Aussie, also gained ground thanks to the jump in the energy segment and gold, while the Euro performed at par with the USD, with no major economic releases coming out in the most-watched markets.

Cryptocurrencies

The major coins had another hectic session after the busy weekend, with Bitcoin’s decline stealing the show, as the currency slipped below the $7000 level. BTC is still the best performing coin on almost all time-frames, but the overbought technical picture points to elevated risk regarding the short-term outlook.

Altcoins experienced some buying as capital fled Bitcoin, while the total value of the segment gradually declined below the historic $200 billion mark. Ethereum Classic continued to make headlines, but Monero although rallied strongly, while IOTA showed signs of strength in the second half of the session. The rest of the market was little changed, and that could mean that the volatility in BTC won’t “infect” altcoins during the correction.                                               

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
03:00 JAPAN BOJ Governeor Kuroda Speaks
17:00 CANADA Ivey PMI 63.80 60.20 59.60

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
05:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%
05:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Statement
10:30 UK Halifax HPI 0.3% 0.0%
11:00 EUROZONE ECB President Draghi Speaks
21:30 US Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

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Analysis

Long-Term Cryptocurrency Analysis: All Majors Stretched as Ripple Finally Breaks-Out

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Although the previous leaders of the rally started to correct or at least consolidate in the wake of the overbought long-term setups, another batch of coins turned exponential, with Litecoin, Ripple, and Ethereum all registering lofty gains this week. Bitcoin, Monero, and Dash have been holding up well, and even drifted to new marginal highs during the period, while Ethereum Classic had a more volatile week, before moving to new highs today.

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XRP left the broad trading range that has dominated its market since May, and surged to new all-time highs while almost quadrupling in the process. As the coin was the only major on a long-term buy signal according to our trend model, and the move triggered a sell signal on Thursday, now all of our tracked coins are on sell signals.

Ripple could be in for further short-term gains but long-term investors should reduce their positions after this week’s spike. Support levels are found Major at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

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XRP/USDT, Daily Chart Analysis

IOTA, which has been leading the market higher before is down by more than 30% off its all-time high, but given the exponential move before, an even deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, and investors should wait until a more favorable setup to add to their positions. Strong support is only found at $3 and $1.5, but potential Fibonacci support is at $2.35.

IOT/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Let’s see how the long-term charts of the other majors look this weekend.

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Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Up Again as Altcoins Mixed in Volatile Trading

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Bitcoin is at a new all-time high today, although the momentum of today’s move is far below from what we saw recently, and the coin only managed to reach a marginal record high yet again. BTC is now worth $300 billion, and it is still trading right at the short-term trendline, inside a rising wedge pattern that shows a clear momentum divergence.

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With the short-term trend still being intact further gains are still possible, but as all the majors are overbought from a long-term perspective, we still advise investors to wait for a better buying opportunity before adding to their holdings. Primary support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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 XRP entered a volatile short-term correction after its two-day surge after giving a short-term sell signal yesterday, and the coin spiked back towards $0.60 before settling down just below yesterday’s highs. The long-term setup also turned overbought thanks to the almost 300% rally, and now investors should reduce their holdings, even as further gains are still possible. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

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Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

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XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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