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Daily Analysis: Markets Settle Down After Crazy Ride

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Daily Analysis: Markets Settle Down After Crazy Ride

Introduction

This article was posted on Friday, 15:03, UTC.

Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2425 0.22%
DAX 12403 -0.07%
WTI Crude Oil 45.34 0.92%
GOLD 1243.00 -0.25%
Bitcoin 2520 -1.53%
EUR/USD 1.1414 -0.22%

US and European stocks took a nosedive yesterday, as the one-week long central meeting took its toll, with the Euro emerging to a new 1-year high against the Dollar. The ECB is not quite ready to start monetary tightening, but the bank’s changed rhetoric was enough to trigger a sell-off as the uptrend was already getting “tired”. The NASDAQ led the decline in the US once again, as the tech index fell back to its flash crash lows from two weeks ago. Bank stocks held up the S&P 500, as the rising yield environment would be helpful for the sector, although long-term yields don’t reflect the optimism of central banks.

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Dollar Index 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies are also less active today, with no major speeches from the central bankers, as the Dollar rebounded off its lows from yesterday. The long-term downtrend in the currency is still ongoing, as the USD now retraced all of the Trump-Rally (and then some). The better than expected final GDP print wasn’t enough to cause a meaningful change in the trend, as the more forward looking indicators are still notoriously showing weakness in the US economy.

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The Citibank Economic Surprises Index and The S&P 500

Gold and oil changed courses this week, with the precious metal showing weakness on the tightening speculation, while oil gained ground on the calmer geopolitical environment and the rising yields, as the shale oil segment would suffer from the stricter funding conditions, and that could drive US production lower in the coming period.

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Oil Futures 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The crypto market remained calm today, as we expected this morning as both Bitcoin and Ethereum are stuck between crucial support and resistance zone while the other coins are finally less correlated to their “Big Brothers”. Volatility declined across the board after the strong moves in the majors and the smaller coins alike this week, and more consolidation is expected before another significant move. Litecoin, Dash, Stratis, and Antshares are the notable outperformers today, while Golem, Ripple, and Ethereum are slightly in the red for now.

Litecoin, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The NASDAQ fell sharply in US trading after a bullish overnight market yesterday, but it failed to sustainable exit short-term range, despite the strong downside momentum. The long-term trendline converges with the crucial 5600 support level just below the current price, and the prior low at 5650 is also still in play, possibly leading to a very choppy session today, as the second quarter is drawing to a close.

NASDAQ 100 Futures 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:00 CHINA Manufacturing PMI 51.7 51.0 51.2
3:00 CHINA Services PMI 54.9 54.5
8:00 GERMANY Retail Sales 0.5% 0.3% -0.2%
10:30 UK Current Account -16.9 bill -16.5 bill -12.1 bill
10:30 UK Final GDP 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
11:00 EUROZONE Flash CPI 1.3% 1.3% 1.4%
14:30 CANADA GDP 0.2% 0.2% 0.5%
14:30 US Personal Spending 0.1% 0.1% 0.4%

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
1:50 JAPAN Tankan Manufactring Index 12
1:50 JAPAN Tankan Services Index 20
3:45 CHINA Caixin Manufacturing PMI 49.6
8:00 SPAIN Manufacturing PMI 55.4
9:30 UK Manufacturing PMI 56.7
16:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.9
16:00 US Vehicle Sales 16.7 mill

 Featured image from Shutterstock

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Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

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