Thursday Market Recap
|Asset||Current Value||Daily Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||49.22||-0.62%|
The North Korean escalation has turned this vacation week into a rollercoaster ride for investors, as markets are trying to judge the real probabilities of a, possibly nuclear, conflict. While fierce statements have been thrown around by both sides, the chances of an actual US intervention still seems slim, despite the recent risk-off turn in financial markets. Equities are in a broad decline globally, while currencies and commodities turned very choppy amid the escalation, with the worse than expected US PPI data adding insult to injury.
Dollar Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Gold is the clear winner of the day so far, as the precious metal was boosted by safe haven buying and the weak US release as well. Gold is now just shy of the long-term resistance at $1300, and we still expect the level to fall, with the long-term fundamentals being very bullish for the metal. The rise in the VIX (a three month high) is also reflecting the negative sentiment, and that helped the Yen in hitting yet another high against the Dollar, although the Greenback is holding on to its gains compared to the risk-on currencies. The USD sold-0ff following the bearish PPI report, but safe haven buying helped to limit its losses in the choppy environment.
Gold, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The sector is still clearly in an uptrend following the long-lasting correction in July and the uncertainty surrounding the Bitcoin fork. The most valuable currency is only slightly off its recent all-time highs, while the rest of the market is also edging higher, despite the current short-term consolidation, and Litecoin, Dash, and Monero are all within striking distance of their respective highs. While Ripple, and ETC are still weak, and NEM is well off its all-time highs, the strength is small cap coins should be an encouraging sign for investors, and odds favor bullish moves even in the current laggards of the segment.
ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The S&P 500 turned lower off its all-time highs after a period of very low volatility, as the North Korean situation triggered a sell-off, with the weak market internals adding to the decline as well. The benchmark is still in a long-term uptrend, but odds now favor a decline to 2415, with trendline support currently found slightly below that level. In the case of a trend-break, the next major target zone for the correction is near 2350.
S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Key Economic Releases on Thursday
|10:30||UK||Goods Trade Balance||-12.7 bill||-11 bill||-11.9 bill|
|14:30||US||Initial Jobles Claims||244,000||244,000||240,000|
Key Economic Releases on Friday
|14:30||US||Core CPI Index||0.2%||0.1%|
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