Connect with us

Analysis

Daily Analysis: Global Rally Stalls as Oil Falls on Qatar Tensions

Published

on

Monday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2433 0.17%
DAX 12834 Closed
WTI Crude Oil 47.17 -2.42%
GOLD 1284.00 0.45%
Bitcoin 2532 3.23%
EUR/USD 1.1248 -0.27%

Global stocks are somewhat lower today, as several markets are closed in Europe, and trading volumes are slim. The terror attack in London and Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic move against Qatar are making headlines. As the tensions mount between the region’s two strongest powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, this move opens a new battleground. Other Gulf countries followed Saudi Arabia, with Bahrain, UAE, and Egypt also cutting ties with Qatar. Oil is falling once again today, following an initial spike on the news, as the political problems in the Middle-East could jeopardize the OPEC’s production cut agreement.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

WTI Crude Oil Futures 4-Hour Chart Analysis

European stocks are weaker than their international peers, with the US indices trading just barely off last week’s all-time highs. Economic numbers were disappointing again, with the British Services PMI missing expectations by a mile, and the US ISM PMI and Factory Orders also coming in below the consensus estimates. Safe-haven assets are benefiting from the risk-off sentiment, with gold climbing to another 5-week high, while the Dollar and the Yen are gaining ground on the other majors.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

The Great British Pound is up today following the London attack, despite the negative economic news, as the Conservative Party’s odds of winning the elections on Thursday have increased. The models are still predicting a Tory victory, and the recent momentum of the Labour Party will most likely be insufficient to win the referendum.

British Opinion Poll Trends, June 5th

The “China-problem” is still not fixed, with the Shanghai composite still trading close to its previous lows, and industrial commodities still being under pressure. The Chinese financial system is one of the biggest long-term risks to the global economy, and the Yuan’s expected weakness could cause another wave of buying in traditional safe-haven assets and cryptocurrencies alike.

Technical Picture

The Shanghai Composite staged a rebound off the 3000 level after dropping 10% on the country’s resurfacing debt problems. The counter-trend move formed an ABC correction that might have topped last week, increasing the chance of a re-test of the crucial 3000 support, with likely new lows down the road. The MACD indicator is back to neutral now as the oversold readings have been cleared by the rebound. The 3085 support could be in focus in the next days, while a move above the 3150 level would indicate that the index is headed back to 3300.

Shanghai Composite, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:30 UK Services PMI 53.8 55.1 55.8
16:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.9 57.1 57.5
16:00 US Factory Orders -0.2% 0.0% 0.2%

 

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
6:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.50% 1.50%
6:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Statement
16:00 CANADA Ivey PMI 62 62.4

Featured image from Pixabay

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Angie

    June 7, 2017 at 12:13 am

    Hi Mate Cser,
    I would like to transfer Australian dollars to Euros and to send the funds to Europe.
    Some believe that the AUD will increase against the Euro. Please advise your thoughts and you reasons for the change either up or down. If the probability is that it will rise then I will wait. The same will apply if it decreases.
    I am looking for the best time to move my funds with the best value.
    Thank you for your time

    • Mate Cser

      June 7, 2017 at 1:48 am

      Hi Angie,

      I see more downside for the Australian Dollar at this point, so I would say that it is a good time to do the transfer. Of course, some day-to-day differences might occur, but nonetheless, I would go ahead with the transfer. As for the Aussie, sustained weakness in commodities, the Chinese debt problems through the strong trade ties, and the elevated housing prices are all downside risks, while the Euro is still recovering from a severe political crisis (Brexit, populist and anti-EU movements). So although the Euro also faces long-term risks (Italian financial system, frictions between the policies of the member states, break-up risk), in next few months to 1 year, I think the Euro looks somewhat better.

      Hope this helps in your decision!

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Analysis

Cryptocurrency Analysis: Ripple Continues Rampage as Litecoin and Ethereum Enter Correction

Published

on

Ripple remained in the center of attention in the segment after breaking out to a new all-time high yesterday, and the coin almost doubled in value, climbing above the $0.80 level. The currency concluded a 6-month long consolidation pattern with the move after being the only major on a long-term buy signal in our trend model.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

XRP gave a short-term sell signal today, while turning neutral regarding the long-term setup. Investors now shouldn’t add to their positions, although further gains are still possible, and reducing holdings somewhat is a good idea here. Major support is still found at the prior high near $0.4250 and in the $0.30-$0.32 range.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

While Bitcoin stagnated, and Bitcoin Cash jumped, Ethereum, Litecoin, Dash, and IOTA has been drifting slightly lower, although the recent gains are still mostly intact, and the basic setup in the segment is unchanged.

Litecoin fell below the $300 level after yesterday’s consolidation, and the coin faced strong selling pressure in the latter half of the session. The currency remains extremely stretched regarding the long-term momentum indicators, and although the short-term uptrend is still intact, a deeper correction is likely in the coming weeks, with key support levels found at $125 and $100, and weaker levels at $260 and $170.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

(more…)

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Daily Analysis: Dollar Falls, Gold Jumps after Yellen’s Final Move

Published

on

Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2668 -0.02%
DAX 13125 -0.45%
WTI Crude Oil 56.65 -0.68%
GOLD 1258.00 1.35%
Bitcoin 16,100 -6.32%
EUR/USD 1.1842 0.73%

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates as expected today, and although the central bank’s monetary statement was slightly more hawkish than expected, the market’s reaction didn’t reflect the much-anticipated move. The worse than expected Core CPI reading that underlined the low-inflation narrative weighed on the recently strong Greenback, while stocks were unchanged after decision and bonds gained ground as yields retreated.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The major indices are hovering near their all-time highs with the DOW leading the way higher, hitting a new record for the second day in a row. While volatility Is expected to remain low as we approach the end of the year, market internals and valuation levels are still concerning from a long-term perspective, and stocks outside the US are also negatively diverging. The action in crude oil could be slightly more interesting as the commodity is starting to act in a slightly bearish manner after a grinding multi-month rally.

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Brexit process is still in the center of attention in Europe, although volatility took a nosedive on the old continent as well, and it’s unlikely that the Christmas period will be much different, given the predictable drop in volumes and trading activity. The date of the next election in the financially and politically troubled Italy has been set to March 4th next year, and the early date caused some turmoil in the countries assets, which dragged the Euro Stoxx 50 lower today, together with the DAX and the other major indices.

Cryptocurrencies

As the total market cap of the crypto-market crossed the incredible $500 billion mark, Ripple, NEO, and Ethereum made headlines with lofty gains in the face of the severely overbought readings elsewhere in the segment. While XRP and NEO are still not overbought from an investment perspective, Ethereum reached our final target for its break-out and triggered a long-term sell signal.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The previously surging IOTA continued its correction, Litecoin consolidated in a relatively narrow range, while Dash, ETC, and Monero scored marginal new highs before turning lower together with BTC. The most valuable coin that has lost some of its momentum “mojo” in recent days fell back below last week’s highs, and that could mark a failed break-out and a start of the deeper correction that seems more and more likely.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
11:30 UK Average Earnings 2.5% 2.5% 2.3%
11:30 UK Claimant Count Change 5,900 3,300 6,500
11:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.3% 4.2% 4.35
15:30 US Core CPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -5.1 mill -3.6 mill -5.6 mill
21:00 US Fed Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5% 1.25%
21:00 US FOMC Statement

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Analysis

Technical Analysis: Volatility on the Rise Again, as Ripple and Ethereum Hit Targets

Published

on

Ripple has been the star of today’s session in the cryptocurrency segment, as the only major coin on a long-term buy signal in our trend model continued yesterday’s break-out, and surged to a new all-time high. The currency cleared the $0.425 level that marked the top in May, and after the more than 6-month long consolidation phase, it promptly neared the $0.50 level.

// -- Discuss and ask questions in our community on Workplace.

While the short-term momentum indicators are now stretched, the coin is still in an encouraging long-term setup, although the best period to buy already passed. The coin could be dragged lower in the case of the expected broad correction in the segment, but we expect XRP to outperform in the coming period, with support levels found at the prior high and below that in the range between $0.30-$0.32.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

// -- Become a yearly Platinum Member and save 69 USD and get access to our secret group on Workplace. Click here to change your current membership -- //

Ethereum has been the other top coin on the rise, as the second largest digital currency surged past the final range projection target of the break-out two weeks ago at $685 in the aftermath of the launch of the BTC futures on Monday. The ETH token is now also on a sell signal on all time-frames, and we advise investors and investors to wait for the next major correction to establish new positions. Support levels are now found at $575, $500, $480, and $400.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

(more…)

Important: Never invest money you can't afford to lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here.



Feedback or Requests?

Continue Reading

Trending