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Daily Analysis: The Fed in Focus as Stocks Push Higher

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2472 0.33%
DAX 12263 0.71%
WTI Crude Oil 47.19 -0.75%
GOLD 1278.00 -0.08%
Bitcoin 4276 5.03%
EUR/USD 1.1698 -0.31%

Stocks markets are in the Green today, as traders await the Federal Reserve meeting minutes which will come out later on today. The worse than expected US housing market numbers weren’t enough to break the bounce in stocks and the Dollar, as the easing of the North Korea related fears helped risk assets across the board. Mario Draghi will be absent from next week’s Jackson Hole symposium according to the ECB’s announcement from this morning, and the Euro got sold heavily after the news, underlining the incredible reliance of the markets to central banks. European equities are being helped by the Euro weakness, as they continued yesterday’s rally.

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DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Great British Pound is showing some relative strength finally, as the bullish Employment Report helped the currency, despite the persistent Brexit worries and the recent weakness in economic numbers. Commodities are little changed in today’s low volatility environment, with gold hovering around the $1275 level, while oil is trading near $47.50 per barrel after the decline of the past few sessions with the mixed US inventory and [production data causing some volatility.

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GBP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

Dash is making headlines today in the crypto-segment, as the coin is trading near its all-time high amid the correction in the high-flying Bitcoin. BTC is not far off its recent highs, despite extremely overbought momentum readings, as the euphoric sentiment continues to fuel buying after the positive fundamental developments of the past few weeks. Ethereum recovered from yesterday’s dip below $285, and looks ready to continue the uptrend that it started a couple of weeks ago, just as Monero. Ripple and ETC are still lagging the market, although the latter showed strength today, while the up-and-coming NEO and IOAT are still just below their recent highs. All in all the bull market in the cryptocurrency segment looks well and alive, as the total value of the coins is just shy of $140 billion.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The tech benchmark recovered after last week’s brief volatility surge and as quiet summer trading resumed the index looks back on track to test the prior highs. The 6000 lever is still ahead as resistance, while the benchmark is bouncing around the 5900 level since late July. The long-term uptrend is still clearly intact, despite the internal weakness, with strong support levels at 5850, 5800, and near 5725 where the rising trendline is also found currently.

                                                   NASDAQ, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:30 UK Hourly Earnings 2.1% 1.8% 1.8%
10:30 UK Unemployment Rate 4.4% 4.5% 4.5%
10:30 UK Claimant Count -4,200 7,200 6,000
11:00 EUROZONE Flash GDP 0.6% 0.6% 0.7%
14:30 US Building Permits 1.22 mill 1.25 mill 1.28 mill
14:30 US Housing Starts 1.16 mill 1.23 mill 1.22 mill
16:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -8.9 mill -3.0 mill -6.5 mill

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
3:30 AUSTRALIA Employment Change 19,800 14,000
3:30 AUSTRALIA Unemployment Rate 5.6% 5.6%
10:30 UK Retail Sales 0.2% 0.6%
11:00 EUROZONE Final CPI Index 1.3% 1.3%
13:30 EUROZONE ECB Meeting Minutes
14:30 CANADA Manufacturing Sales -1.0% 1.1%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 240,000 244,000
14:30 US Philly Fed Index 18.3 19.5
15:15 US Industrial Production 0.3% 0.4%

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Grinds Higher as Records Tumble in Altcoins

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The historical surge in the segment, which is the second such move this year, continued today, with another round of break-outs in some of the major altcoins and tepid gains for BTC investors. Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, and first and foremost Litecoin was leading the charge, with the recent star LTC topping $300, just after a day of hitting the $200 mark.

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Litecoin defied all odds after reaching extremely overbought readings, and the coin rode the speculative wave, turning exponential, not unlike IOTA and Bitcoin previously. With the coin being stretched in an unprecedented way on all time-frames, investors could even consider selling their core positions at the current levels, as a deep correction is almost granted in the coming period. The first meaningful support level is found at $125, and a re-test of the $100 level is probable during the next major correction.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ripple finally ended a long period of relative weakness today, and the only major on a long-term by signal jumped over primary resistance at $0.26 and crossed the $0.30-$0.32 too in the euphoric sentiment. As the coin is not long-term overbought following the 6-month long consolidation, the buy signal in XRP remains intact, with the only major resistance level being found at the all-time high near $0.425.

XRPUSDT/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Litecoin Continues Surge as Bitcoin Tests Highs

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With the crypto world being focused on the historical futures launch, the major coins all enjoyed buying following a hectic weekend, and a volatile week as a whole. BTC itself got another boost from the widespread publicity and the volatile correction of the recent days ended, with the most valuable coin bouncing back towards its all-time high.

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While the long-term picture remains severely overbought, the short-term picture is not stretched and further gains are possible even amid the elevated correction risk. That said, investors should wait for a more favorable entry point to ad dot their holdings, while traders should control position sizes in the light of the long-term setup. Major support levels are now near $13,000, $11,300, and $10,000, with stronger levels still at $8200 and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The major altcoins are all up today, but only Monero and Litecoin are still within short-term uptrends, and the segment as a whole is still dangerously overextended, and a deeper correction is very likely in the coming weeks. LTC continued its recent break-out, getting close to the $200 level, and joining the extremely overbought group regarding the long-term momentum, and triggering a long-term sell signal in our trend model. Key support levels are found $100 at $75 and $64, with a weaker primary level at $125.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Analysis

Long-Term Analysis of the Silver Market

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Silver

The silver market has once again caught investors’ interest as the price is nearing areas not seen since late 2008.

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2017 started at a low point for silver, and it seems it will end the year that way as well, meaning investors who bought at the beginning of the year haven’t suffered nor gained much.

This doesn’t mean, however, that the price hasn’t moved during the year. After the low start of the year, silver quickly tacked on about 18% to a top of $17.50 per ounce.

In terms of fundamentals in the silver market, things look a bit complicated for 2018. There are multiple forces pulling in different directions for the price of silver going forward:

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Positives

  • A sharp stock market correction can be expected to occur some time in 2018. Most likely, this will happen sooner rather than later. Stock market crashes always trigger a flight to safety, meaning gold, silver, and quite possibly bitcoin, can benefit.
  • We are seeing signs that inflation may be starting to rise again, although this is not confirmed yet. Rising inflation is always good for precious metals.
  • If the US federal budget deficit widens as a result of the new tax reform, the US dollar may suffer as a consequence. Goldman Sachs put out a note to investors in November 2017 saying that the US debt is “on track” to reach an “unsustainable” level in coming years. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has also said about the US debt that it is “the type of thing that should keep people awake at night.” Rising debt levels creates uncertainty about the economy, which is generally good for gold and silver.

Negatives

  • Central banks around the world seem committed to raise interest rates in 2018. Rising interest rates are bad for precious metals because it would make it more attractive to put money in the bank.
  • The cryptocurrency bull market is on track to continue, diverting attention and capital away from precious metals as a traditional store of value. However, this one is uncertain, as it may also be considered a positive in the way that the rise of cryptocurrencies brings the inflationary and unsustainable nature of fiat currencies into focus.
  • The US dollar may have hit a bottom in 2017 and trade higher compared to other major fiat currencies going into 2018. A stronger dollar is always bad for precious metals, which are priced in dollars.

Silver chart

When looking at the chart, we can see that silver is back down to were it started the year, which coincides with a major support area where it has turned several times in the past few years.

From a technical perspective, silver has been trading in a triangle pattern on the longer-term weekly chart, with the price now trading very near the lower end of the triangle, adding confluence to our bias that silver will trade up from here.

Silver failed to live up to our prediction from early 2017, and is now even trading well below the level from that time.

A low price by any measure combined with two major technical support levels adds confidence to our trade and makes silver a low risk and potentially high reward trade for 2018.

Depending on your own strategy and investment style, you may want to wait for the price to break out from the current triangle pattern it has been trading in for the past year and a half. You would then give up some of the potential return for an even safer trade. After that, major resistance is found around $17.50 and $18, with lots of upside potential if we can finally break through those levels.

Featured image from Pixabay.

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