Thursday Market Recap
|Asset||Current Value||Daily Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||47.27||-2.35%|
With no major news out yet from the Fed’s symposium, all of the main financial markets are having a very calm and choppy session. The major stock indices are hovering near yesterday’s closing prices in the US, while their European peers are virtually unchanged as well. The possibility of a US government shutdown caused some turmoil recently, and although the chances of a debt ceiling induced crisis are rising, investors shouldn’t worry about that particular matter. The severe overbought state of US stocks and the internal weakness of the market are much bigger worries, and overweighting equities is not a good idea here, despite the still intact uptrend.
S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Currencies are also in a calm before the storm period, as all of the major pairs are little changed for the day. The Yen’s slight weakness is the only meaningful trend, but we expect forex markets to turn much more volatile tomorrow. With the Jackson Hole event extending to the weekend, Monday morning could even bring a sizeable gap in the majors, so traders should control overnight position sizes. Commodities are a tad more active, as crude oil seems to be ready for another leg lower in its short-term downtrend, trading 2% lower today. Gold is still hovering just below $1300, as traders continue to focus on the US Dollar and central banks.
WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The bull market in cryptocurrencies is still “on”, as the majors are making bullish moves one by one, with Litecoin being the latest currency to break-out of a triangle consolidation pattern. The previously strong coins are holding on to most of their gains, although a lot of them are already overbought, as the broad advance is maturing. Bitcoin is one of the most stretched currencies in crypto-land, and although the interest in the most valuable coin is still rising, new positions here are risky, as a deep correction is likely in the coming weeks. The same goes for Monero and Dash, while Ripple, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, and NEO are still in earlier stages of their rally.
LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The DAX is still stuck in a declining trend, despite the recent period of relative strength, as the primary resistance near 12,200 and the declining trendline are holding back the benchmark. The index is still well below its all-time highs, as the persistent strength of the Euro weighed on European equities in recent months. The DAX will likely turn more volatile tomorrow and in the beginning of next week, and a rally towards the 12,500 level still seems likely. The MACD indicator is still neutral, and the 12,000 and 11,900 levels provide strong resistance here.
DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Key Economic Releases on Thursday
|10:30||UK||Second Estimate GDP||0.3%||0.3%||0.3%|
|14:30||US||Existing Home Sales||5.44 mill||5.55 mill||5.52 mill|
|All Day||US||Jakson Hole Symposium||–||–||–|
Key Economic Releases on Friday
|10:00||GERMANY||IFO Business Climate||115.0||116.0|
|14:30||US||Core Durable Orders||0.4%||0.1%|
|All Day||US||Jackson Hole Symposium||–||–|
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