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Analysis

Daily Analysis: All Eyes in Jackson Hole As Markets Remain in Hibernation

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Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2443 -0.02%
DAX 12180 0.05%
WTI Crude Oil 47.27 -2.35%
GOLD 1291.00 -0.25%
Bitcoin 4218 0.19%
EUR/USD 1.1811 0.03%

With no major news out yet from the Fed’s symposium, all of the main financial markets are having a very calm and choppy session. The major stock indices are hovering near yesterday’s closing prices in the US, while their European peers are virtually unchanged as well. The possibility of a US government shutdown caused some turmoil recently, and although the chances of a debt ceiling induced crisis are rising, investors shouldn’t worry about that particular matter. The severe overbought state of US stocks and the internal weakness of the market are much bigger worries, and overweighting equities is not a good idea here, despite the still intact uptrend.

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S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies are also in a calm before the storm period, as all of the major pairs are little changed for the day. The Yen’s slight weakness is the only meaningful trend, but we expect forex markets to turn much more volatile tomorrow. With the Jackson Hole event extending to the weekend, Monday morning could even bring a sizeable gap in the majors, so traders should control overnight position sizes. Commodities are a tad more active, as crude oil seems to be ready for another leg lower in its short-term downtrend, trading 2% lower today. Gold is still hovering just below $1300, as traders continue to focus on the US Dollar and central banks.

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WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The bull market in cryptocurrencies is still “on”, as the majors are making bullish moves one by one, with Litecoin being the latest currency to break-out of a triangle consolidation pattern. The previously strong coins are holding on to most of their gains, although a lot of them are already overbought, as the broad advance is maturing. Bitcoin is one of the most stretched currencies in crypto-land, and although the interest in the most valuable coin is still rising, new positions here are risky, as a deep correction is likely in the coming weeks. The same goes for Monero and Dash, while Ripple, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, and NEO are still in earlier stages of their rally.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX is still stuck in a declining trend, despite the recent period of relative strength, as the primary resistance near 12,200 and the declining trendline are holding back the benchmark. The index is still well below its all-time highs, as the persistent strength of the Euro weighed on European equities in recent months. The DAX will likely turn more volatile tomorrow and in the beginning of next week, and a rally towards the 12,500 level still seems likely.  The MACD indicator is still neutral, and the 12,000 and 11,900 levels provide strong resistance here.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:30 UK Second Estimate GDP 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
10:30 UK Business Investmets 0.0% 0.2% 0.6%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 234,000 237,000 232,000
14:30 US Existing Home Sales 5.44 mill 5.55 mill 5.52 mill
All Day US Jakson Hole Symposium

Key Economic Releases on Friday

10:00 GERMANY IFO Business Climate 115.0 116.0
14:30 US Core Durable Orders 0.4% 0.1%
All Day US Jackson Hole Symposium

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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Inverstor Clouseau

    August 24, 2017 at 9:27 pm

    I can’t wait for a large blBitcoin correction. I does seem like it consolidated a bit though.

  2. cryptoheaven

    August 25, 2017 at 9:30 am

    Hi
    I signed up for this site yeaterday with a money back guarantee. I contacted you on email twice to get a refund, but no response.
    I would appreciate if you kept your word and show some integrity and refund me.

    Trygve Yndestad

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Cryptocurrencies Start Week on a Quiet Note as NEO Shines

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The broad Bitcoin-led correction continued to dominate trading in the crypto-segment throughout the weekend, as the most valuable coin drifted sideways above the key technical level at $13,000, with dwindling trading volumes.

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BTC remains in a declining short-term pattern, although the digital currency still holds well above the mini-crash lows from December, spending almost a month now in the daily range of the year-end plunge. We still expect the largest coin to complete the current cycle with a move below the crash lows and the $10,000 level after the stellar rally of the previous months. Key support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins also settled down across the boards with only a few coins registering strong activity. Ethereum and NEO have been among the coins making headlines, as the second largest coin continued to grind, higher still trading near its recent all-time high today. The price of the ETH token is moving in a short-term uptrend, in the face of the stretched momentum indicators, but we expect a meaningful correction soon, and long-term investors should wait for a more favorable technical setup before entering new positions, with key support levels at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remained under heavy selling pressure in the meanwhile, as the oversold bounce of the weekend faded away and the coin got close last week’s lows again. As the short-term downtrend is intact, traders should stay away from entering new positions, while investors should wait for short-term sell-offs towards the main support levels at $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85 to add to their holdings.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Coins Rebound as Key Support Level Holds Bitcoin

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The $13,000 level in the price of Bitcoin continued to be the center attention of traders today, as the most valuable coin successfully tested the crucial support zone overnight, despite another brief dip below it. The other majors followed the subsequent bounce higher, with Ethereum pushing past $1250 once again, while Ripple reclaiming the $2 level.

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Despite the bounce, the short-term trend in Bitcoin is clearly bearish and the correction is still likely to continue, although the extreme long-term overbought readings are now cleared. We still expect a move towards the previous correction low near $11,300, with a likely dip below $10,000 before the end of the current cycle, with further important support levels are found at $9000, $8200, and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ripple recovered slightly after nearing the $1.50 level and reaching short-term oversold readings, and the coin tested the primary resistance level at $2.1 yesterday in late trading. The currency remains in a strong short-term downtrend despite the bounce and the continuation of the correction is likely, although long-term investors could already accumulate new positions near the main support levels at  $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum bounced of the dominant short-term trendline, but the coin remains overbought on all time-frames and we expect a trendline break in the coming days. That said, traders could hold smaller positions here with tight stops as a push towards the prior all-time high is still possible. Key support levels are found at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin Tests $13,000 as Hectic Correction Continues

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The cryptocurrency segment remained generally bearish in the middle of the week, as the Ripple and Bitcoin-led move spread to almost all of the majors, with even the recent leader Ethereum getting hit today.

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As BTC got smashed below the dominant rising trendline, a wave of selling pushed the coin under the key $13,000 level before a violent bounce started. Despite the bounce, the long-term picture remains negative, and we still expect a test of the correction low near $11,300 in the coming weeks, with a likely dip below $10,000 before the end of the current cycle. Further important support levels are found at $9000, $8200, and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ripple got very close to the key support level at $1.50 today in early trading, and after the sell signal six days ago, the coin is nearing a neutral short-term signal in our trend model, and a more durable bounce is possible here. That said, the long-term picture remains bearish and further corrective price action is likely before the end of the current cycle. Despite the likely consolidation, long-term investors could already accumulate new positions on the short-term sell-offs near the main support levels at  $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum’s rally topped out near $1350 for now, and given the now severely overbought long-term picture we expect the short-term trend to end in the coming days. With that in mind, although traders could still enter small positions near the trendline, correction risk is now high, and investors should wait for a deeper move lower before entering new positions. Key support levels below $1000 are still found at $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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