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Daily Analysis: All Eyes in Jackson Hole As Markets Remain in Hibernation

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Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2443 -0.02%
DAX 12180 0.05%
WTI Crude Oil 47.27 -2.35%
GOLD 1291.00 -0.25%
Bitcoin 4218 0.19%
EUR/USD 1.1811 0.03%

With no major news out yet from the Fed’s symposium, all of the main financial markets are having a very calm and choppy session. The major stock indices are hovering near yesterday’s closing prices in the US, while their European peers are virtually unchanged as well. The possibility of a US government shutdown caused some turmoil recently, and although the chances of a debt ceiling induced crisis are rising, investors shouldn’t worry about that particular matter. The severe overbought state of US stocks and the internal weakness of the market are much bigger worries, and overweighting equities is not a good idea here, despite the still intact uptrend.

S&P 500, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Currencies are also in a calm before the storm period, as all of the major pairs are little changed for the day. The Yen’s slight weakness is the only meaningful trend, but we expect forex markets to turn much more volatile tomorrow. With the Jackson Hole event extending to the weekend, Monday morning could even bring a sizeable gap in the majors, so traders should control overnight position sizes. Commodities are a tad more active, as crude oil seems to be ready for another leg lower in its short-term downtrend, trading 2% lower today. Gold is still hovering just below $1300, as traders continue to focus on the US Dollar and central banks.

WTI Crude Oil, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Cryptocurrencies

The bull market in cryptocurrencies is still “on”, as the majors are making bullish moves one by one, with Litecoin being the latest currency to break-out of a triangle consolidation pattern. The previously strong coins are holding on to most of their gains, although a lot of them are already overbought, as the broad advance is maturing. Bitcoin is one of the most stretched currencies in crypto-land, and although the interest in the most valuable coin is still rising, new positions here are risky, as a deep correction is likely in the coming weeks. The same goes for Monero and Dash, while Ripple, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, and NEO are still in earlier stages of their rally.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The DAX is still stuck in a declining trend, despite the recent period of relative strength, as the primary resistance near 12,200 and the declining trendline are holding back the benchmark. The index is still well below its all-time highs, as the persistent strength of the Euro weighed on European equities in recent months. The DAX will likely turn more volatile tomorrow and in the beginning of next week, and a rally towards the 12,500 level still seems likely.  The MACD indicator is still neutral, and the 12,000 and 11,900 levels provide strong resistance here.

DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:30 UK Second Estimate GDP 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
10:30 UK Business Investmets 0.0% 0.2% 0.6%
14:30 US Unemployment Claims 234,000 237,000 232,000
14:30 US Existing Home Sales 5.44 mill 5.55 mill 5.52 mill
All Day US Jakson Hole Symposium

Key Economic Releases on Friday

10:00 GERMANY IFO Business Climate 115.0 116.0
14:30 US Core Durable Orders 0.4% 0.1%
All Day US Jackson Hole Symposium

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 293 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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2 Comments

2 Comments

  1. Inverstor Clouseau

    August 24, 2017 at 9:27 pm

    I can’t wait for a large blBitcoin correction. I does seem like it consolidated a bit though.

  2. cryptoheaven

    August 25, 2017 at 9:30 am

    Hi
    I signed up for this site yeaterday with a money back guarantee. I contacted you on email twice to get a refund, but no response.
    I would appreciate if you kept your word and show some integrity and refund me.

    Trygve Yndestad

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Analysis

Ether Price Has a Good Chance of Rising Further

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On Wed July 18, Ether is falling, although the previously formed local uptrend still looks quite sustainable. The crypto is trading around $498, says Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex.

Today’s morning, Ether rose above $500, which helped to determine the next important resistance levels. The bullish trendline at $480 that was formed yesterday is now confirmed on H1, and in case Ether is able to go above $500 shortly, its chances for going further up will increase.

Once Ether continues rising, it will quickly reach $525, and the current support levels will go above, too. As of now, Ether has some potential to rise till $550, according to D1.

For now, the key support for Ether is at $480, and once the crypto heads up, a new support at $500 will get active. $525 is still key resistance for now. The MACD is going up on D1, still in the negatives, and is issuing a buy signal, while the Stochastic confirms it, being in the positive territory.

ether

Among fundamentals and events that are important for Ether traders, one can mention the addition of Bitcoin and Ether to Purple Group. The company believes its customers will now have more freedom in selecting payment methods for running their transactions.

Another important news item is that the brokers using MT4 began offering cryptocurrency trading (at first, only Bitcoin, but then other cryptos were added). In most cases, the clients can trade CFD’s, although some brokers allow direct cryptocurrency transactions, too. This is a very interesting opportunity, as the investors trust MT4 and consider it a secure platform, so crypto trading added to it will be trusted, too.

With more products added to the platform, both direct crypto trading and CFD’s, more people will come to MT4 in order to try it. This is positive for both Ether and other altcoins.

 

Disclaimer:

Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 4 rated postsHaving majored in both Social Psychology and Economics, Dmitry went on to continue his education in post graduate. He then worked as a team lead of a tech and fundamental analysis lab in the Applied System Analysis Research Institute. This helped him to acquire all necessary skills and experience to become a successful trader and analyst, as well as a portfolio manager in an investment company. Dmitry is a pro in the financial field who authors articles for various international media. He also holds the position of Chief Analyst at RoboForex.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Monero Bullish Reversal on the Horizon

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The cryptocurrency world has come to life today. Bitcoin is leading the way, up by over 10% in 24 hours as it surged past $7,000. Other coins such as Ripple (XRP/USD), Litecoin (LTC/USD), and Bitcoin Cash (BCH/USD) have followed suit, growing between 5% – 10% in 24 hours as well. Looking at this cast of cryptocurrencies, it seems that Monero (XMR/USD) investors are missing out on this rally.

Not to worry because usually a rising tide lifts all boats in financial markets. In this article, we reveal why a major bull run is likely on the horizon for XMR/USD.

Monero Weekly Chart Looks Promising

A quick look at the weekly chart of XMR/USD and you can easily spot the formation of a falling wedge. The recent bounce from $120 support has given investors a good reason to be excited. After all, the rally has put the market in a position to finally breakout out of the falling wedge.

Weekly Chart of XMR/USD

Monero appears ready to take out the resistance level. The daily chart gives us glimpses on how this breakout might transpire.

Daily Chart Shows Bullish Two Scenarios

Switch to the daily chart and you’ll also see the large falling wedge in play. On top of that, it offers two possibilities regarding how Monero can break out of this pattern and launch a bull run.

XMR Breaks Out on Fear of Missing Out

Bitcoin, being the most popular cryptocurrency, often acts as a barometer for other cryptos. Its strength or weakness can influence how other altcoins perform. Bitcoin’s recent trend reversal might make Monero investors greedy. The fear of being left out might just be enough to take out resistance of $160.


This scenario is viable as the daily MACD reveals a bullish divergence and a bullish cross. In addition, the 4-day, 8-day, and 21-day moving averages are not acting as immediate supports.

XMR Breaks Out on Increased Demand

A more sustainable breakout is one driven by demand rather than greed. In this scenario, Monero respects resistance of $160 as investors see the bounce as a sell rally. This starts a waterfall event that would push the market down to key support of $85.

At this price level, demand exceeds supply. Plus, the falling wedge would be at its narrowest point.

The daily RSI offers support in this scenario. It is currently forming a rising wedge, which is a bearish pattern. Even if XMR climbs to $160, the RSI would likely be overbought by then. That could catalyze the fall to $85 support.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s resurgence can influence how Monero moves in the coming days. Investors might become greedy and push the market above resistance of $160. On the other hand, investors may see the recent bounce as a sell rally. This can drive the market down to support of $85.

Either way, a breakout is on the horizon. A bullish reversal is likely not a question of if, but when.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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3.6 stars on average, based on 201 rated postsKiril is a financial professional with 4+ years of experience in financial writing, analysis and product ownership. He has passed all three CFA exams on first attempt and has a bachelor's degree with a specialty in finance. Kiril’s current focus is on cryptocurrencies and ETFs, as he does his own crypto research and is the subject matter expert at ETFdb.com. He also has his personal website, InvestorAcademy.org where he teaches people about the basics of investing. His ultimate goal is to help people with limited knowledge of finance and investments to create investment portfolios easily, and in line with their unique circumstances.




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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Blows Through $7000 but Altcoins Still Lag Behind

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The relief rally in the cryptocurrency segment continued in earnest today, as Bitcoin still lead the way higher posting its best daily performance since April. The most valuable coin stole the show, although the whole market blasted higher, with the total value of the coins getting close to $300 billion, up by around 20% in a matter of days.

While the segment is still not out of the woods, BTC triggered a short-term buy signal in our trend model, as it overcame major resistance levels for the first time since May, finally showing some technical progress. That said, most of the majors are still stuck in, or right at the top of their trading ranges, and besides Bitcoin, buy signals are few and far between even considering the smaller coins, as correlations are still very high.

Trading volumes were also the highest in months, as especially Bitcoin triggered automatic orders while surging through several strong resistance levels. Bulls would still need further coins to join the break-out and fro now the long-term setup is still just little changed.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

BTC cleared the $6750, $7000, and $7350 levels in a bit more than an hour, and the epic short squeeze settled down near the latter resistance, for now. The coin is now on a short-term buy signal, and should a higher low form in the coming days, a new short-term uptrend could be established.

The coin needs to stay above the $7000 level to keep the signal intact, and given the relative weakness in Altcoins, the long-term outlook is still mixed. Resistance is now ahead between $7650 and $7800, while further support is at $6500.

Ethereum at $500 as Ripple Tests $0.51

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While Bitcoin is already above primary resistance, Ethereum is trading right at the $500 level, leaving the short-term trading range intact. The coin is close to triggering a buy signal, but it remains relatively weak and traders should wait for follow-through before playing a possible trend change. Primary support is still found at $450, with other levels at $420, $400, $380, and $360, while further resistance is ahead between $555 and $575.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

With all of the majors registering large gains, and even some the recently weak coins like LTC, XRP, and Dash are trading near key resistance levels, further short-term buy signals could pop up in the segment, but until a confirmed new uptrend, traders should remain cautious with new positions.

As an example, Ripple is trading slightly above the $0.51 resistance currently, but a break-out is not yet confirmed, and the trading range remains dominant. Further resistance levels are ahead at 0.54 and $0.575, while support is now found at $0.49 and $0.45.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.6 stars on average, based on 293 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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