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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Europe Down Again as Euro Hits 1.18

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Monday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2470 0.17%
DAX 12834 0.65%
WTI Crude Oil 47.17 -2.42%
GOLD 1284.00 0.45%
Bitcoin 2779 -4.23%
EUR/USD 1.1202 0.07%

The recent trends of the global markets are on again as the Dollar continues to struggle, defining the worldwide sentiment. European stocks, especially the German DAX index are still showing weakness. The Euro hit yet another 2-year high near the 1.18 level, and the EUR/USD pair is quickly approaching the crucial 1.20 zone that marked major turning points several times in the past few years. US stocks are virtually unchanged today, with the NASDAQ failing to recover from Thursday’s mini flash-crash so far. Oil breached the $50 per barrel level today in early trading, before running into resistance and bouncing lower after a very bullish week.

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DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Gold is consolidating as well, below the $1275 level, well within its short-term uptrend, as the US political battles coupled with the recent tensions regarding North Korea, and the dovish change in the Fed’s rhetoric all help precious metals. The slightly better than expected Eurozone inflation data and Unemployment Rate weighs on the metals today, while giving another boost to the Euro, but a rally towards the $1300 price level still looks likely in the coming weeks. The other major currencies are less active today, with the Pound and the Aussie waiting for the rate decisions of the Bank of England and the RBA on Thursday and tomorrow respectively.

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Cryptocurrencies

Cryptocurrencies still show a clear divergence between Bitcoin and the other major coins, as BTC is showing strength, while rest of the market is trading sideways at best. All eyes are on tomorrow’s Bitcoin-fork initiative but with the clear solution regarding the SegWit activation, the expected nervousness is not showing in the market. As there is no strong downside momentum present, the current consolidation will likely resolve in a bullish manner, especially following the deep one-month long correction that dragged the majors down by 30-60%.

 

BTC and ETH diverging, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The S&P 500 is still trading near its all-time highs as it is helped by the decline in the Dollar and the positive short and long-term technical setup. Crucial support is found at 2450 while the rising long-term trendline is currently at 2380. With the earnings season still being in its prime, choppy trading is expected to continue this week, and the recent volatility in the NASDAQ could also be a warning sign, but above the 2450 level bulls remain in command.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
3:00 CHINA Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.5 51.7
3:00 CHINA Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.5 54.9
8:00 GERMANY Retail Sales 1.1% 0.3% 0.5%
11:00 EUROZONE Flash CPI 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
14:30 CANADA RMPI -3.7% -3.2% -1.8%
15:45 US Chicago PMI 58.9 60.2 65.7
16:00 US Pending Home Sales 1.5% 1.1% -0.8%

Key Economic Releases on Tuesday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
6:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Rate Decision 1.5% 1.5%
6:30 AUSTRALIA RBA Statement 116.2 118.9
10:30 UK Manufacturing PMI 54.4 54.3
11:00 EUROZONE Prelim GDP 0.6% 0.6%
14:30 US PCE Price Index 0.1% 0.1%
14:30 US Personal Spending 0.1% 0.1%
16:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI 56.4 57.8

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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2 Comments

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  1. letusallunite

    August 1, 2017 at 12:06 am

    Mate, the figure “BTC and ETH diverging, 4-Hour Chart Analysis” is incorrect.

    • Mate Cser

      August 1, 2017 at 12:33 pm

      Hi letusallunite, thank you for the catch, fixed!

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Analysis

Music: One Overlooked Use Case

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So far in this year, Ethereum has been the crypto star appreciating over 80% to a recent record of $1402. All this suggests that more and more applications are being created. We know this by the demand for Ether, the gas that drives the Ethereum network.

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The reason behind the explosion of Ether demand was confirmed by Ethereum co founder Steven Nerayoff in a CNBC interview where he claimed the number of Ethereum projects today is more than 10 times year ago levels.

One of those areas is the music business and there are several names appearing on the ICO list to add to your research agenda.

Why The Music Business Needs Help

Music may live forever but the business side has been in trouble for a long while. Over the last decade there have been only three years when the global value of music sales increased. The combination of digital music and outright pirating through peer-to-peer sharing has much to do with the long-term trend.

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Throughout the world there are 69 copyright and royalty societies given the responsibility of documenting, collecting and distributing music royalties. That means collecting a few pennies whenever a song is played on the radio, Internet or anywhere else. Four of the largest of these is in the US, followed by Japan, Germany and Britain. Their operations are truly byzantine.

Experts in the music-publishing field confirm the time between music usage and royalty payment can run close to 24 months. Even then not all royalties are distributed. According to my sources, there are often millions of dollars collected by royalty authorities everywhere that never make it to the entitled recipients. That sort of practice borders on criminal behavior but copyright and royalty societies operate in a sub-rosa manner making it difficult to understand their policies.

In the past just 4 major record labels controlled over 80% of the industry. These giants could afford a full time legal department to pursue royalty issues dominated the music industry. Today, however, independent labels represent almost one-third of the market. This means less democracy in the business with the young independent artist at a particular disadvantage.

Of course, musicians aren’t the only group of artists loosing out on their pay. There are writers, poets and painters that go largely unprotected.

The music business is just easier to track because it has more data. Yet in spite of all the information, the music industry is widely recognized for its lack of transparency. Blockchain technology has the ability to disrupt long-standing industry practices.

ICOs To The Rescue

The number of Ethereum based white knights is starting to appear on the horizon promising to rattle the industry and hopefully restore some democracy on behalf of the independent artist.

One simple business model comes from a startup SingularDTV who is attempting to build their ecosystem on top of Ethereum. Here is the basic value added proposal.

SingularDTV tokenizes the artist work. In doing so the artist is turning their music into a financial asset. Anyone who buys into an artist’s token owns a share of the creation and its income stream. The more people consume an artist creation, the higher goes the token price.

Only time will show if SingularDTV succeeds with this model. The consequence of this model is how it eliminates many of the middlemen and nefarious influences in the industry. Instead of singing on a street corner for bread, an artist could raise money upfront without relying on an advance from a record label.

According to SingularDTV, distributing content via blockchain would allow artists to skirt streaming platforms like Spotify to earn royalties on their own terms. Now that is true democracy.

SingularDTV may stand out a bit in the news due its recent ICO success in raising $8 million but they aren’t the only player in the music game. Names like Voise recently raised $1 million as well as Soundchain, Blokur and Opus to name a few.

I am no longer a registered investment advisor, which means I don’t go around making investment recommendations. So I will only suggest this group to put on your list of late night reading. Next time, I will take a closer look at more of these names.

Featured image courtesy of Shutterstock. 

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Cryptocurrencies Start Week on a Quiet Note as NEO Shines

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The broad Bitcoin-led correction continued to dominate trading in the crypto-segment throughout the weekend, as the most valuable coin drifted sideways above the key technical level at $13,000, with dwindling trading volumes.

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BTC remains in a declining short-term pattern, although the digital currency still holds well above the mini-crash lows from December, spending almost a month now in the daily range of the year-end plunge. We still expect the largest coin to complete the current cycle with a move below the crash lows and the $10,000 level after the stellar rally of the previous months. Key support is still found near $13,000, with further levels at $11,300, $10,000, $9000, and stronger levels at $8200 and $7700

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Altcoins also settled down across the boards with only a few coins registering strong activity. Ethereum and NEO have been among the coins making headlines, as the second largest coin continued to grind, higher still trading near its recent all-time high today. The price of the ETH token is moving in a short-term uptrend, in the face of the stretched momentum indicators, but we expect a meaningful correction soon, and long-term investors should wait for a more favorable technical setup before entering new positions, with key support levels at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple remained under heavy selling pressure in the meanwhile, as the oversold bounce of the weekend faded away and the coin got close last week’s lows again. As the short-term downtrend is intact, traders should stay away from entering new positions, while investors should wait for short-term sell-offs towards the main support levels at $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85 to add to their holdings.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Coins Rebound as Key Support Level Holds Bitcoin

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The $13,000 level in the price of Bitcoin continued to be the center attention of traders today, as the most valuable coin successfully tested the crucial support zone overnight, despite another brief dip below it. The other majors followed the subsequent bounce higher, with Ethereum pushing past $1250 once again, while Ripple reclaiming the $2 level.

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Despite the bounce, the short-term trend in Bitcoin is clearly bearish and the correction is still likely to continue, although the extreme long-term overbought readings are now cleared. We still expect a move towards the previous correction low near $11,300, with a likely dip below $10,000 before the end of the current cycle, with further important support levels are found at $9000, $8200, and $7700.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Ripple recovered slightly after nearing the $1.50 level and reaching short-term oversold readings, and the coin tested the primary resistance level at $2.1 yesterday in late trading. The currency remains in a strong short-term downtrend despite the bounce and the continuation of the correction is likely, although long-term investors could already accumulate new positions near the main support levels at  $1.50, $1.25, and $0.85.

XRP/USDT, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum bounced of the dominant short-term trendline, but the coin remains overbought on all time-frames and we expect a trendline break in the coming days. That said, traders could hold smaller positions here with tight stops as a push towards the prior all-time high is still possible. Key support levels are found at $1000, $850, $740, $625, and near $575.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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