Daily Analysis: Dollar Jumps on Strong Payroll and Wage Numbers
Friday Market Recap
|Asset||Current Value||Daily Change|
|WTI Crude Oil||48.77||-0.52%|
Jobs Friday is here, and market statistics say that the US Employment Report is the most important monthly release, causing the strongest volatility in currencies and the most durable moves in the case of a huge surprise. With that in mind the better than expected numbers might be enough to cause a meaningful correction in the most important trend of the recent weeks, the Dollar’s demise. Sure enough, the Greenback surged higher against its major peers, but the currency is still just slightly off its 2-yesr lows against the Euro, so there is ample room for a correction without endangering the underlying trend.
Non-Farm Payroll Growth in the US
Eurozone assets bounced back off their multi-week lows as the common currency got weaker, while US equities barely budged, with low summer volumes still being the dominant force. Stock volatility is near its historic lows, and even the intensifying bipartisan moves against Donald Trump aren’t enough to break the back of the Trump-Rally. That said, there is still apparent weakness under the hood, with only the mega-cap DOW index being able to march to new highs lately. All the major currencies are losing ground to the USD, with gold also drifting lower, while oil being stable around the $49 per barrel level.
EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The major coins have settled down after the Bitcoin Fork and bull market like price action continues, as investor confidence is back after the uncertainty. That said, some of the largest coins are still inside the correction patterns that developed following the historic spring rally, and a clear trend change is yet to be confirmed. Ethereum, Ripple, Dash, Monero, and Litecoin are all trading near important resistance levels, while NEM is already on the move. As Bitcoin Cash is losing market cap, we expect BTC to at least test the prior highs near $3000, with the long-term picture still being constructive for the most valuable coin.
BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
The DAX found support near 12,100 as the advance of the Euro stalled for a couple of days at 1.19 against the Dollar. The index remains stuck in a downtrend, but the short-term MACD is in oversold territory, signaling a likely correction towards the dominant trendline. Strong resistance levels are ahead near 12,375 and 12,500 but a durable bounce is possible if the Euro enters a meaningful correction.
DAX, 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Key Economic Releases on Friday
|3:30||AUSTRALIA||RBA Monetary Policy Statement||–||–||–|
|14:30||CANADA||Trade Balance||-3.6 bill||-1.4 bill||-1.1 bill|
|14:30||US||Trade Balance||-43.6 bill||-45.6 bill||-46.5 bill|
Key Economic Releases on Monday
|1:30||AUSTRALIA||AIG Construction Index||–||56.0|
|10:30||EUROZONE||Sentix Investor Confidence||–||28.3|
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