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Daily Analysis: Dollar Dips as US Retail Sales Disappoint Once Again

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Daily Analysis: Dollar Dips as US Retail Sales Disappoint Once Again


Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2387 -0.17%
DAX 12730 0.18%
WTI Crude Oil 47.88 0.02%
GOLD 1230.00 0.48%
Bitcoin 1795 -2.15%
EUR/USD 1.0915 0.46%


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Global stocks are mixed and little changed so far today, as the rebound that started yesterday in late trading faded this morning. European stocks are slightly higher, while the Nikkei and the main US benchmarks are lower compared to yesterday’s closing prices. The US Retail Sales and CPI reports were the most expected announcements today, as the Federal Reserve is very keen on those numbers and last month’s readings were far from being convincing. The report missed expectations once again, and that might set the tone for the coming weeks especially for currencies as the Dollar might be under pressure if investors change their rate hike expectations.

Gold is finally showing some strength, thanks to the dip in the Dollar and the slight negative change in sentiment that also helped the Yen and the Swiss Franc today. The Pound is still relatively weak as it has been since the Bank of England’s meeting, while the Euro bounced back above 1.09 against the Dollar after the negative US releases. Oil is trading right at the $48 per barrel level, as industrial commodities are still stable, thanks to the small rebound in China.

Dollar Index, Daily Chart Analysis


Cryptocurrencies are little changed once again today, with most of the majors trading in narrow ranges after the strong gains of the previous weeks. Litecoin, the most active coin of the week fell to a 20-handle this morning, being down by 5%. Ripple is drifting higher, and it’s above 0.20 again, possibly preparing for another major move. Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Dash, and Monero are virtually unchanged while NEM has been following Ripple higher so far today. Bitcoin is lower, back near the $1800 level, but no real technical damage has been done, with even the short-term rising trend still being intact.

Ripple, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The NASDAQ is still the leader among the US indices as the status quo of the past few weeks is unchanged. The technology index is just below its all-time high today, despite yesterday’s dip and the weakness of the broader indices. The S&P 500 is clearly lagging the benchmark, while the NASDAQ held up well above the short-term support level, despite drifting out from the post-election trend earlier on this week. The MACD edged lower during the consolidation, clearing the overbought condition, so another push higher is now possible for the index in the coming days if its relative strength overwhelms the negative divergence of the major benchmarks.

NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis (S&P 500 Comparison)

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Country Release Actual Expected Previous
GERMANY Prelim GDP 0.60% 0.60% 0.40%
US CPI Index 0.20% 0.30% -0.30%
US Core CPI 0.10% 0.20% -0.10%
US Retail Sales (monthly) 0.40% 0.60% -0.20%
US Core Retail Sales 0.30% 0.50% 0.00%
US UOM Consumer Sentiment  97.7 97.0 97.0


Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
4:00 CHINA Industrial Production (yearly) 7.6%
9:15 SWITZERLAND PPI Index 0.10%
14:30 US ES Manufacturing Index 5.2
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Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

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