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Daily Analysis: Central Bank Show Continues as Euro Surges to New Highs

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Daily Analysis: Central Bank Show Continues as Euro Surges to New Highs

Introduction

This article was posted on Thursday, 13:47, UTC.

Thursday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2440 0.08%
DAX 12577 -0.58%
WTI Crude Oil 45.26 1.12%
GOLD 1245.00 -0.45%
Bitcoin 2779 -4.23%
EUR/USD 1.1395 0.17%

The common European currency is the star of the week so far, as the markets are digesting the hawkish turn in the European Central Bank’s rhetoric, while today being also supported by the higher than expected German CPI Index. Currencies and global stock markets are volatile thanks to the series of contradicting speeches, although the general message is that the major central banks are on a tightening schedule, despite the recent downturn in economic indicators. US stocks had a very good session yesterday, and the S&P 500 and the Dow got close their all-time highs, while the NASDAQ also recovered Tuesday’s steep losses.

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EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The Dollar also lost ground against the Canadian Dollar, the Great British Pound, and the Aussie, while rallying compared to the very weak Japanese Yen. The Bank of Japan seems to be the only central bank that is reluctant to tighten monetary conditions, as the country’s economy remains sluggish. Apart from the central banks, the release of the US GDP print was the most awaited event of the day, but growth was in line with expectations, leaving markets unchanged. Gold is under pressure amid the tightening speculation, while oil is gathering strength as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East took a backseat in recent days.

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Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin and Ethereum ran into resistance after the strong bounce of the past two days, and the broad cryptocurrency rally stalled somewhat near the major resistance levels. Most of the major and smaller coins are also slightly lower today, with only Antshares continuing its healthy advance. Ethereum is still bouncing around the key $300 level, while Litecoin retreated off our previous target near $44 once again, following BTC and ETH lower this morning. The market might turn choppy in the coming period following the strong moves in both directions.

Bitcoin, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Technical Picture

The Technology benchmark has been very volatile in recent days, as it re-tested last week’s lows before surging back to the key resistance level near 5780. The rising long-term and declining short-term trends might be setting up a price compression pattern, and that could mean a choppy end of the week for the index, with the coming end of the second quarter tomorrow also pointing to a slightly chaotic period ahead, as the big institutional players re-balance their portfolios.

NASDAQ 100 Futures 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
10:00 GERMANY Prelim CPI 0.2% -0.2% 4.9%
14:30 US Final GDP 1.4% 1.2% -67.1 bill
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 244,000 241,000 -1.3%

 

Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
3:00 CHINA Manufacturing PMI 51.0 51.2
3:00 CHINA Services PMI 54.5
8:00 GERMANY Retail Sales 0.3% -0.2%
10:30 UK Current Account -16.5 bill -12.1 bill
10:30 UK Final GDP 0.2% 0.2%
11:00 EUROZONE Flash CPI 1.3% 1.4%
14:30 CANADA GDP 0.2% 0.5%
14:30 US Personal Spending 0.1% 0.4%

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Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

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