Daily Analysis: Calm before the Storm, as Paris Shooting Jeopardizes Elections

Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2350 0.40%
DAX 12048 0.31%
WTI Crude Oil 50.45 -0.77%
GOLD 1284.00 0.18%
Bitcoin 1246 2.17%
EUR/USD 1.0694 -0.68%


Choppy trading continued globally as the financial world focuses on the first round of the French presidential election, where the polls are still remarkably tight, and last night’s shooting just added more questions to the already difficult situation. Some of the candidates actually called for the re-scheduling of the referendum, but the vote will likely be held as planned on Sunday. The Pound is once again in the focus as the disastrous British retail sales report caused a correction in the previously surging currency.

The Euro was on a rollercoaster yesterday, as the common currency rose strongly in early trading but now it’s back near the 1.07 level following the sad events in Paris, despite the slightly better than expected PMI readings from the Eurozone. Gold, the Japanese Yen have also rebounded as the uncertainty grew after the shooting, while oil remains under pressure following the negative fundamental news. All asset classes are close to unchanged so far today, as trading volumes remain low.

Cryptocurrencies have another busy day with Bitcoin, Ethereum Classic, and Ripple being among the most active markets. Litecoin is also volatile today, as it’s up by double digits, although it’s still within the broad trading range that dominated the last couple of weeks. Bitcoin finally left the resistance zone near $1215, and the most important cryptocurrency might be ready for a move towards its all-time highs. Dash, Ethereum, and Monero are still stuck in their ranges near the $70, $50, and $21.50 levels respectively.

Ethereum Classic 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The Nasdaq has quietly taken over the leadership of global markets, as the French election and the geopolitical tensions dominated the news flow this week. The US technology index is now very close to its all-time highs, and that might lead to a broad rally in stocks next week if the French referendum’s first round concludes with a favorable outcome. The DAX notably underperformed its US counterparts recently, but a relief rally in Europe could quickly push the German index higher.

Nasdaq, S&P 500, and DAX, Hourly Comparison Analysis


Key Economic Releases on Friday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
9:30 GERMANY Services PMI 54.7 55.5 55.6
9:30 GERMANY Manufacturing PMI 58.2 58.1 58.3
10:00 EUROZONE Services PMI 56.2 56 56
10:00 EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI 56.8 56.1 56.2
10:30 UK Retail Sales -1.80% -0.30% 1.40%
14:30 CANADA CPI 0.20% 0.40% 0.20%
16:00 US Existing Home Sales  5.71 million 5.61 million 5.48 million


Key Economic Releases on Monday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
10:00 GERMANY IFO Business Climate 112.3
14:30 CANADA Wholesale Sales (monthly) 3.30%
10:00 US FOMC’s Kashkari speaks
Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.