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Daily Analysis: Bitcoin Nears $2500 as Markets Await OPEC Meeting

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Daily Analysis: Bitcoin Nears $2500 as Markets Await OPEC Meeting


This article was posted on Wednesday, 15:45, UTC.

Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2399 0.28%
DAX 12643 0.02%
WTI Crude Oil 51.59 0.78%
GOLD 1252.00 -0.74%
Bitcoin 2420 7.20%
EUR/USD 1.1189 -0.15%

Global stock markets are still remarkably stable, as volatility continues to be low, and the US indices are still somewhat stronger than their global peers. Moody’s downgraded China in a surprise move overnight, after 30 years of upgrades, causing a slight dip in equities globally, but the Chinese market recovered well after the initial decline. All eyes are now on the OPEC’s meeting and the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s recent monetary meeting.  The oil cartel is expected to extend its production cut by 6-12 months to keep the crude oil market in balance, while the Fed’s rhetoric regarding its interest rate hikes is closely watched before the central bank’s next meeting in three weeks.

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The US Dollar recovered some of its recent steep losses against the Euro the Pound and the Yen today, before the FOMC minutes, while oil bounced off the $52 level, as traders await the OPEC-decision. Industrial commodities and related currencies were hit hard by the Chinese downgrade, before bouncing back together with global stocks. Gold slid lower since yesterday, and it’s now trading near the $1250 level, after failing to stay above the $1260 resistance.

Bitcoin surged above the $2400 level today following the crucial scaling agreement, as it continues its historic rally, while almost all major cryptocurrencies followed BTC higher this time around. Ethereum topped $200 as it jumped by 30%, while Ethereum Classic doubled in one day. Monero is also up by another 35% today, and it took out the $50 level without any serious correction, while Dash also added to yesterday’s gains. Litecoin continued to recover after last week’s deep correction and it could be the next coin to hit new highs if the incredible bullish wave keeps lifting the market. NEM, Stellar, and Ripple are relatively stable today, as XRP is still trading between 0.30 and 0.35, while NEM is glued to the 0.25 level. Total market capitalization hit another milestone, $90 billion, and our $100 billion question might get an answer in the next couple of days.

Ethereum, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Technical Picture

The US financial sector has been acting relatively weak since March, and it failed to join the rally of the past few weeks as well. The short-term consolidation pattern is still in play, as the XLF is trading between the $23 and $23.75 levels. The MACD indicator shows neutral readings, while the rising long-term trend is still intact. The sector is expected to test the $22.90 support once again in the coming weeks, and a break below that level could set-up a move towards the $21.75 level.

XLF (US Financial Sector ETF), 4-Hour Chart Analysis (NASDAQ comparison)

Key Economic Releases on Wednesday

Time, CET Country Release Actual Expected Previous
14:45 EUROZONE ECB President Draghi Speaks
16:00 CANADA BOC Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
16:00 CANADA BOC Statement
16:00 US Existing Home Sales 5.57 mill 5.60 mill 5.70 mill
16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories -4.4 mill -2.4 mill -1.8 mill
14:30 US FOMC Meeting Minutes


Key Economic Releases on Thursday

Time, CET Country Release Expected Previous
10:30 UK Revised GDP 0.30%
14:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 236,002
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Mate Cser

Mate Cser

Trader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.

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