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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Update: Ethereum Leads Rebound

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Bitcoin

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BTC led the decline at the end of last week, and the rebound also started when Bitcoin bounced off the $1875 support. Since then, the correlation between the coins broke down significantly and BTC has been drifting higher, hitting $2300 before today’s US session. While the rally was strong, caution is still the name of the game here, as the short-term technical picture still is still neutral at best. Another re-test of the $2000 level remains the most likely scenario, with the trend line of the recent rally being in danger.

Ethereum

ETH emerged as the leader of the rebound, jumping above the $200 level and to a new high against BTC, almost doubling in value from the Saturday bottom. Ethereum’s market capitalization reached 50% of Bitcoin’s value, as it remains the cryptocurrency with the quickest expansion rate in Dollar terms.

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Ripple

Ripple has been lagging the other majors throughout the rebound, and it fell almost 10% against BTC today, XRP is below the short-term resistance level at $0.2275 and it might be ready to test the long-term trendline near 0.17. A rally above 0.25 would open up the road for a new advance.

Litecoin

Litecoin’s technical position was the least affected by the deep correction, as it remained in the broad consolidation that it has been trading since topping out 3 weeks ago except a short spike lower. The forming base between $20 and $23 is serving as primary support, with strong resistance at $26.50.  The primary support might be in focus in the coming days, while a rally above $27 would be strongly bullish development.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. embersburnbrightly

    May 31, 2017 at 12:40 am

    I suspect Bitcoin will indeed struggle for a while to reach any further massive gains, with some short-term further corrections possible. It seems a lot of the money in the cryptocurrency market is being drawn out currently in support of Ethereum. I think it is just a matter of time before Litecoin breaks through to begin another rally, given that Litecoin can be bought at a good rate currently and the coin offers faster and cheaper transactions than Bitcoin. I feel it has been off the radar a bit as Bitcoin hit some key psychological numbers; but that Litecoin’s time to shine is coming. Ripple may indeed come down a bit further in the short term, but it may not be a bad idea to use any further low rates to stock up a bit on Ripple and Litecoin, prior to the almost certain rebound and subsequent rally from these two altcoins. I used the same approach with Ethereum, buying extra coins when the price dropped for a bit. Investing in those extra ether coins is certainly paying off handsomely now — with a 154% gain (and growing) in about 1 month. I must also give acknowledgement and thanks to Hacked.com for helping to steer me in that direction. I am new to this but learning quickly, in no small part due to the information provided here. Thank you!

    • embersburnbrightly

      June 1, 2017 at 4:04 am

      As I type this, slightly more than 24 hours following my initial comment above, Litecoin is up 11% and Ripple is up 36%. Ethereum continues to hold steady. The muse Kenny Rogers once sang, “You gotta know when to hold ’em; know when to fold ’em.” Very happy right now to have held onto my Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple!

      (Might also be the first time that Kenny Rogers was referred to as a muse??)

      • Mate Cser

        June 1, 2017 at 5:20 am

        Absolutely, in this market selling your core positions in a correction might make you regret it quickly. The fundamentals remain rock solid, but as a trader, especially on leverage, you gotta control risk. These moves, however big the percentages are, didn’t change the overall technical setup.

        • embersburnbrightly

          June 1, 2017 at 5:49 am

          I am finding this site to be a wealth of information; and Ripple is currently up by 52%. Wow. I know it won’t last and that a sell-off for profit is inevitable, but it seems like there is still room for additional growth longer-term with this coin. Thank you for the reply!

  2. Gabriel

    May 31, 2017 at 7:54 am

    Thank you for this analysis. Despite the aggressive ups and downs, it is interesting to see that new bases are forming and that long term trends are holding.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Bitcoin Tests $10,000 amid Correction

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The altcoin-triggered correction continued in the segment overnight amid the renewed sell-off in global stocks, with a slight bounce in Asian trading and a subsequent dip after the European open. The major coins are all down by more than 5% since yesterday, but for now, the momentum of the move is not worrying, and most importantly the leadership of the rally is holding up relatively well.

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Bitcoin bounced off the key $10,000 level, the $200 support zone held in Litecoin, Monero is still in its consolidation pattern above $280, and only Dash showed deterioration since yesterday, but the long-term picture remains encouraging even in Dash’s case.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The above-mentioned levels in the technically strongest coins are not even the last line of defense for bulls, as the preceding strong rally left several key levels behind which could serve as the basis of the next leg higher.

Also, we expect the currently negatively diverging coins, led by Ethereum and Ripple, to start showing strength as the short-term momentum reaches oversold territory, and good entry points might be close both for traders and long-term investors.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

BTC touched the $10,000 support level, but for now, the technically more important $9000-$9200 zone is not in danger, and the short-term momentum indicators are already neutral thanks to the correction.

That said, more downside is likely in the coming days, but investors and traders should be looking for reversals to enter new positions, as we expect the uptrend to continue, with targets ahead at $11,300, $13,000 and $14,250.

Ethereum Provides a Glimmer of Hope

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Although bears are still in control regarding the short-term picture in the second largest coin, this morning ETH didn’t hit a significant new swing low, and that could be the first sign of relative strength, with the $845 support not far above the current price level, and the MACD indicator is already near oversold territory.

Despite the slightly positive sign, short-term traders should remain defensive concerning the weaker coins, while long-term investors should still accumulate the currencies on the dips.

Stay tuned for our detailed technical analysis later on today.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: The Usual Post-Fed Pump and Dump…

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Wednesday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2700 -0.51%
DAX 12,470 -0.14%
WTI Crude Oil 61.28 -0.83%
GOLD 1325.00 -0.43%
Bitcoin 10480 -8.71%
EUR/USD 1.2336 0.61%

The script that we laid out for the FOMC meeting minutes has worked almost perfectly, with the major US indices completing a roundtrip that triggered most of the “weak” stop-losses, before a powerful move lower into the close.

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The predictable late-session intraday volatility aside, markets were quiet and choppy for most of the day, and the Dow, the Nasdaq, and the S&P 500, all closed just slightly lower, while covering 2% during the session, with the tech-index’s relative strength evaporating in late trading.

S&P 500 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Forex Markets and Commodities

What drove the decline in equities was the renewed rise in US Treasury Yields, and to answer the most important question of the day; yes, in fact, the yield-Dollar correlation of the past few months broke down, and today the Greenback rallied together with bond yields.

10-Year Treasury Yield, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While that is how it should work according to common sense and economic theory, the recent inverse correlation helped a lot of trends in reaching extremes, and those extremes now might reverse.

The outperformance of US markets, the Euro strength, and the weakness in European equities were among those trends, and it’s interesting to see that the bullish technical setup in the EUR/USD is crumbling and the US indices are in the deepest correction since the Brexit.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

While there is no assurance that these changes are permanent, for now, we remain short-term bearish on US equities, and continue to look for upside in the battered Dollar.

At the end of the day, the Dollar finished higher against all of the major fiat currencies, although the Yen showed notable relative strength amid the stock rampage near the closing bell. Interestingly the USD vs. risk-on pairs trend continues to lead the other asset classes, as we have noted several times, and that could be something to monitor in the coming days and weeks.

Commodities had a mixed but ultimately bearish session, with oil and gold suffering both suffering losses amid the risk-off shift, although crude already traded lower before the FOMC release, while gold traded in close correlation with the Euro throughout the day.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment had a decisively bearish session, with only a few coins showing considerable relative strength amid the sell-off. Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dash, and Monero are still the leaders of this cycle, while Ethereum is the most notable laggard, pulling most altcoins lower as well.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

On a positive note, the majors held up relatively well amid the stock turmoil, but the next few days will be crucial, as important support levels could be tested. That said, most of the coins are well clear of the crash lows, and there is more than enough support below that, combined with the still present bullish signs should keep investors confident that a new uptrend is underway and new rally highs are ahead.

Featured image from Shutterstock

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Altcoins Lead Markets Lower as Bitcoin Still Looks Strong

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All of the largest digital currencies are in the red today, following heavy overnight selling, a bounce in European trading, and another round of losses around the US market open. Ethereum is still in the worst short-term shape among the giants of the segment, and that’s in line with the slightly delayed cycle of the coin that we have been monitoring.

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The technical divergence between the leaders of the market and the laggards yesterday is still dominant with the 6 coins that spearhead the rally, BTC, LTC, NEO, Dash, Monero, and ETC, are still in much more bullish setups than the rest of the majors.

Bitcoin is also well below its recent rally highs after breaking down under the key $11,300 level, and a test of the $10,000 support now looks likely, while a move to the $9000-$9200 zone would still keep the rising trend intact.


BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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The overbought short-term momentum readings are being cleared, and despite the slightly bearish volume patterns, we expect the coin to continue its new bullish cycle after the correction, with targets above $11,300 ahead at $13,000 and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum is now trading below the key $845 level as the correction continues, as we expected, and the coin remains stuck in the dominant declining trend, for now. We still expect a breakout in the coming weeks, but a test of the $740 level is possible before another rally. Further support below that is at $625 and $575 and we don’t expect a new low in the coin, so investors could still accumulate the coin near the main levels.

(more…)

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 107 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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