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Analysis

Cryptocurrency Rally Continues as Ethereum and Bitcoin Shine

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The major cryptocurrencies got bought aggressively following the weekend liquidation, and the most valuable coins rallied back above their prior high, giving the first confirmation of a possible long-term trend change. Bitcoin surged past $2150 and hit the key $2250 level, with the timing of the previous being almost perfectly in line with our prior projection.

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Apart from the technical position, BTC and the broader market were both boosted by the favorable developments regarding the BIP91 protocol that could save BTC from a hard fork event on the coin’s Judgement Day.

BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

The coin did spike briefly below the base pattern that we have been monitoring, but the current rally should have marked the end of the correction, with the long-term picture reaching oversold territory last week. Most of the other majors and smaller coins are also sporting double digit gains from the lows, as the oversold currencies are slightly catching up to the likes of Litecoin and Dash which were holding up during the lengthy sell-off. Let’s look at the how the majors stand after the strong bounce.

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Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum climbed above the previous low near $170 as well and rose as far as $195  today in early trading. The ETH token is still not out of the declining trend but if it can hold above the $170 level, the odds of a sustained rally are very high, given the long-term setup and the encouraging bullish momentum of the bounce.  The relative strength of the small cap coins in the last two days is also positive for the coin.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin has been drifting higher since yesterday, sticking to the rising long-term trendline, and reaching up to the crucial confluence zone near $44. The short-term declining trendline and the strong support/resistance line is now just ahead of the coin and a break-out would trigger a trend change. The MACD indicator is still bullish after turning higher yesterday, and with it being right at 0, the picture is favorable for a break-out if the other majors remain bullish.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash bounced back above the key $150 after testing the rising long-term trendline during the weekend, just as Litecoin. The coin has been slightly lagging LTC since yesterday, and it’s still below the upper boundary of the declining short-term pattern, leaving the short-term picture neutral. The currency remains among the most bullish majors long-term, but it needs to gain some strength to trigger a short-term buy signal.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is trading right at the 0.175 level after the bounce, still well inside the long-term correction pattern that has been dominant for over two months now.  Short-term traders should still avoid opening new positions until the declining trend is intact, but long-term investorsestors could add to their positions here.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETC has been held back by the declining short-term trendline just as Litecoin after showing considerable strength during the weekend sell-off. The key support zone around the $14 level held the coin recently, but a move above $18 would be ideal for short-term traders to have an “all clear” signal regarding a rally to new highs. That said, new positions could be opened above $16, after the higher low that the currency formed on Sunday.

Monero

XMR/USD, 4-Hour Analysis

Monero remains among the weakest majors short-term, as it still failed to rally above the prior correction low, despite the broad-based bounce so far this week. The coin is now back to the key base formation, above the $32 level, but short-term should wait for a move above $36 before and a higher low to form.

NEM

NEM/BTC, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

NEM has been showing some relative strength compared to its closest peer, Ripple, recently, but it remains in a declining long-term tredn compared to Bitcoin. The coin is getting close to the major trendline after this week’s rally, and a move above 0.000066 would trigger a long-term buy signal after forming a low neat 0.00005 last week.

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Analysis

Crypto Update: Coins Remain Under Pressure but Supports Still Hold

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The correction of the post-crash rally is still dominant in the cryptocurrency segment, despite the encouraging bounce on Friday, as Bitcoin is dragging the market lower. The coin turned relatively weak in recent days after an extended period of outperformance, but even BTC is holding up well, with the bearish momentum being far from disastrous.

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Ethereum’s relative strength, on the other hand, is slowly building, as we first noted it during the Thursday sell-off, and the second largest could be spearhead the next leg higher. The early leaders of the rally, Ethereum Classic and Litecoin are also acting bullish, and the overall picture remains in line with the orderly correction scenario.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Bitcoin still hasn’t tested the key $9000-$9200 zone despite several waves of selling that hit the coin, but it’s still stuck below the $10,000 level. We expect a short-term bottom in the coming week, as the momentum of the decline suggests accumulation, and investors should use the dip to add to their holdings, even if a test of the primary support zone is still possible here, with further resistance levels ahead above $10,000 at $11,300, $11,750, and $13,000.

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin put in a higher short-term low during the weekend, retaining its leading position in the rally from a technical standpoint. The MACD indicator already gave a bullish signal after dipping into negative territory, but should Bitcoin continue to struggle, LTC could be in for more consolidation before despite the relative strength. The $200 level is still in focus with a strong resistance zone just ahead between $220 and $235, with the rally high at $250, while further key support is at $180.

Altcoins Mixed in Quiet Trading

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Percentage changes are not significant today following yesterday’s decline, and most of the majors are holding up above or near key support levels, with relatively low volatility and notable divergence between the coins.

As for the recently weaker coins, Ripple is still trading well below the $1 level, while IOTA managed to bounce hard off the correction low reaching back to the $1.9 resistance, and edging closer to a break-out from the still dominant downtrend.

The rest of most established coins are still drifting lower, with no major moves in the last few days, so without notable red flags, we remain positive regarding the long-term setup.

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Disclaimer:  The analyst owns cryptocurrencies. He holds investment positions in the coins, but doesn’t engage in short-term or day-trading, nor does he hold short positions on any of the coins.

Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Oil Extends Rally as Nasdaq Leads Stocks Higher

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2749 1.38%
DAX 12,483 0.18%
WTI Crude Oil 63.58 1.29%
GOLD 1330.00 -0.16%
Bitcoin 10,14 -0.09%
EUR/USD 1.2295 -0.28%

US equities built up some bullish momentum towards the end of the week, ignoring the technical damage that the volatility-crash caused, and the major US indices rallied into the close today, squeezing the shorts. The Nasdaq, which led the rally as we expected, took out the key 6850 level in late trading and added another percent to, incredibly enough, finish only a hundred point of the all-time high.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Should the tech benchmark retest the high next week, it will be amid very strong negative divergences, but hey, those divergences have been building for months now. The rally in equities was boosted by the dip in Treasury yields, especially at the long end of the curve, while Amazon continued ot lead the charge, closing right at the historic $1500 per share level.

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Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The advance in the Dow and the S&P 500 is much less convincing and with small caps also lagging the tech-behemoth juggernaut, we remain skeptical regarding the sustainability of the move. That said, if the broader indices stay above the key levels, we will be trading the long side in equities, even as from an investment standpoint, valuations are still way above acceptable.

Forex Markets and Commodities

The lackluster performance of European and Asian stocks adds to the negative divergences, especially as the Euro stopped appreciating against the Greenback, and that should be helping stocks of the old continent. Of course, the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50 could play catch-up next week, barring another surge in the common currency.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most-traded forex pair remains in a short-term downtrend, as it failed to recapture the previously broken rising trendline, and the commodity related risk-on currencies also remained under pressure. The Canadian Dollar did bounce back off yesterday’s 8-week lows, boosted by the much hihger than expected inflation release and the jump in the price of crude oil.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil benefited from the positive shift in sentiment, while the Syrian situation, which took a backseat in the headlines, still supports the rally. The Japanese Yen and gold were stable amid the risk-rally and that adds to our suspicions regarding the upside potential form these levels.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment started out the day with a strong bounce that carried the major coins higher by around 10%, but given the recent steep short-term pullback, even that wasn’t enough to turn the tide, and the day ended with an (almost usual) sell-off after the US close. Despite the recent volatility, the overall picture is still encouraging, with most of the majors being safely above the crash lows, likely in a new bullish cycle that has the potential to last for several more weeks or even months.

While new all-time highs are it guaranteed following the 60-70% declines among the largest coins, but even without those, plenty of upside potential is left for investors. With that in mind, investors should hold on to their coins and even add to their holdings on the short-term dips like the current one.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Majors Stage Rally but Strong Levels Still Ahead

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The cryptocurrency segment has recovered from a broad correction today in early trading, with the most valuable coins all turning into green during the session, despite the bearish start to the overnight session. With bottom-to-top gains of up to 15%, the rally helped in easing the worries of bulls, especially in the case of the relatively weaker coins.

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Bitcoin and most of the largest altcoins remained stable during the selloff, and BTC recaptured the $10,000 level quickly after trading as low as $9600 overnight. The initial rally topped out near $10,400, and the coin is trading back near the $10,000 level, as the bullish momentum faded away somewhat.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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That said, we expect the uptrend to continue even if the correction could still carry Bitcoin lower. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum showed strength during the bounce again after yesterday, together with the early leaders of the rally, and although the coin dipped below the $845 level in the second half of the session, the signs remain positive for bulls. Support levels are now found at $780, $740, $625 and $575, while resistance is ahead near $910 and $1000.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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4.7 stars on average, based on 115 rated postsTrader and financial analyst, with 10 years of experience in the field. An expert in technical analysis and risk management, but also an avid practitioner of value investment and passive strategies, with a passion towards anything that is connected to the market.




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