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Cryptocurrency Analysis: Major Coins Hold Lows as Ethereum Stuck at $200

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The crypto-market experienced another short-term sell-off yesterday, but the major coins all managed to hold above their prior lows, as the downside momentum weakened and the small cap coins also stopped hitting new lows. While a trend change is not yet confirmed, the long-term picture continues to be encouraging, and the market could be ready for a move out from the one-month long correction pattern

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The strongest coins of the market of the rally, Dash and Litecoin remain inside their short-term consolidation pattern while Ethereum Classic is holding on to most of its recent gains after the pull-back. Let’s look at the how the majors held up during yesterday’s drop.

Bitcoin

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BTC/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

Bitcoin remains inside the declining trend that defines the long-term correction, although it showed considerable relative strength during last weekend’s sell-off. The currency is still hovering around the $2350 level, below the crucial $2450 resistance, and until a move above that, the short-term trend is negative as well. Primary support is at $2250, with another strong level at $2150, marking the low of the long-term correction.

Ethereum

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum has been leading the market lower last week, as the strong decline in small cap coins weighed heavily on the token. ETH fell back below the key $200 level, but it finally showed short-term relative strength, and held up above the correction lows as well.  The coin is still well inside its correction pattern and only a move above $235 would signal a short-term trend change. That said, the almost 60% correction, and the now slightly oversold long-term picture points to a possible long-term bottom.

Litecoin

LTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Litecoin is consolidating in a short-term triangle pattern, near the $45 level, but it failed to launch another rally attempt so far, as the broad sell-off weighed on the coin. A move above the current pattern would still signal a rally towards the range-projection target at $58, despite the slightly overbought long-term picture, and the approaching rising trendline.

Dash

DASH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Dash remained below both the crucial short-term support/resistance level at $190, and the consolidation pattern during the recent rally and is yet to provide another short-term buy signal. The long-term uptrend remains intact, with a really towards the prior high at $220 and hte long-term target near $260 still being likely in the coming period.

Ripple

XRP/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ripple is trading back in it two-month long correction pattern after the sharp moves at the beginning of the week, with the $0.21 and $0.18 levels being currently in focus. The declining long-term trendline is currently at 0.24 and until a move above that line short-term traders should still avoid the coin, while long-term investors could still add to their positions here.

Ethereum Classic

ETC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

ETC remains the only major coin on a short-term buy signal after holding up above the prior declining trend-line. The token trades near the $18 level this morning, and a move above $20 should signal at least a re-test of the prior high at $22, although a break-out could still be down the road, as the biggest coins remain in a correction for now.  Short-term support is now at $16 with another storng level at $14.50.

Monero

XMR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis

XMR remains among the weakest majors short-term while the long-term picture still shows strong support at $37, providing a good entry point to investors. The base formation between $32 and $37 should hold during the current correction, but until a move above the declining trendline, currently at $45, traders should be cautious with new positions, while the currency is also facing strong resistance at $46.

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Analysis

Daily Analysis: Oil Extends Rally as Nasdaq Leads Stocks Higher

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Friday Market Recap

Asset Current Value Daily Change
S&P 500 2749 1.38%
DAX 12,483 0.18%
WTI Crude Oil 63.58 1.29%
GOLD 1330.00 -0.16%
Bitcoin 10,14 -0.09%
EUR/USD 1.2295 -0.28%

US equities built up some bullish momentum towards the end of the week, ignoring the technical damage that the volatility-crash caused, and the major US indices rallied into the close today, squeezing the shorts. The Nasdaq, which led the rally as we expected, took out the key 6850 level in late trading and added another percent to, incredibly enough, finish only a hundred point of the all-time high.

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NASDAQ 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Should the tech benchmark retest the high next week, it will be amid very strong negative divergences, but hey, those divergences have been building for months now. The rally in equities was boosted by the dip in Treasury yields, especially at the long end of the curve, while Amazon continued ot lead the charge, closing right at the historic $1500 per share level.

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Russell 2000 (Small Cap) Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The advance in the Dow and the S&P 500 is much less convincing and with small caps also lagging the tech-behemoth juggernaut, we remain skeptical regarding the sustainability of the move. That said, if the broader indices stay above the key levels, we will be trading the long side in equities, even as from an investment standpoint, valuations are still way above acceptable.

Forex Markets and Commodities

The lackluster performance of European and Asian stocks adds to the negative divergences, especially as the Euro stopped appreciating against the Greenback, and that should be helping stocks of the old continent. Of course, the DAX and the EuroStoxx 50 could play catch-up next week, barring another surge in the common currency.

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The most-traded forex pair remains in a short-term downtrend, as it failed to recapture the previously broken rising trendline, and the commodity related risk-on currencies also remained under pressure. The Canadian Dollar did bounce back off yesterday’s 8-week lows, boosted by the much hihger than expected inflation release and the jump in the price of crude oil.

USD/CAD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Oil benefited from the positive shift in sentiment, while the Syrian situation, which took a backseat in the headlines, still supports the rally. The Japanese Yen and gold were stable amid the risk-rally and that adds to our suspicions regarding the upside potential form these levels.

Cryptocurrencies

The segment started out the day with a strong bounce that carried the major coins higher by around 10%, but given the recent steep short-term pullback, even that wasn’t enough to turn the tide, and the day ended with an (almost usual) sell-off after the US close. Despite the recent volatility, the overall picture is still encouraging, with most of the majors being safely above the crash lows, likely in a new bullish cycle that has the potential to last for several more weeks or even months.

While new all-time highs are it guaranteed following the 60-70% declines among the largest coins, but even without those, plenty of upside potential is left for investors. With that in mind, investors should hold on to their coins and even add to their holdings on the short-term dips like the current one.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Technical Analysis: Majors Stage Rally but Strong Levels Still Ahead

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The cryptocurrency segment has recovered from a broad correction today in early trading, with the most valuable coins all turning into green during the session, despite the bearish start to the overnight session. With bottom-to-top gains of up to 15%, the rally helped in easing the worries of bulls, especially in the case of the relatively weaker coins.

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Bitcoin and most of the largest altcoins remained stable during the selloff, and BTC recaptured the $10,000 level quickly after trading as low as $9600 overnight. The initial rally topped out near $10,400, and the coin is trading back near the $10,000 level, as the bullish momentum faded away somewhat.

BTC/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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That said, we expect the uptrend to continue even if the correction could still carry Bitcoin lower. Further strong support is found between $9000 and $9200, while targets are ahead at $11,300, $13,000, and $14,250.

ETH/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

Ethereum showed strength during the bounce again after yesterday, together with the early leaders of the rally, and although the coin dipped below the $845 level in the second half of the session, the signs remain positive for bulls. Support levels are now found at $780, $740, $625 and $575, while resistance is ahead near $910 and $1000.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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Analysis

Pre-Market: Stocks Refuse to Fall Even as China Takes Over Key Insurer

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Although it should have been a very quiet week in China, thanks to the New Year celebrations, the recent surge in volatility and the plunge in equities didn’t pass without consequences in the key market. Just shortly after effectively shutting down the Chinese version of the Volatility Index (VIX) (presumably to calm the markets…), one of the main actors of the monstrous financial web, Anbang, of the country had to be taken over to avoid a systemic event and stop the “creative” financial engineering that involved criminal activity (the shadow of 2008).

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China will likely need many more duck-tapes like this one if it wants to stop the largest credit bubble in human history to collapse, but for now, the solution could work. Equity futures edged higher since yesterday’s volatile close, and as the major US indices are holding up well, not far off last Friday’s highs, our bearish short-term view might have to be revised.

Nasdaq 100 Futures, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

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As we discussed before, the long-term uptrend is intact, and we expect at least a re-test of the highs even if we are in a large-scale top formation, but we thought that the technical damage caused by the crash three weeks ago would require more healing.

We are not turning bullish just yet, but today’s session could finally decide if we the BTFD-crowd is strong enough to turn the tide after the choppy drift lower this week. We are still focusing on the Nasdaq, as the broader market seems to be following the lead of the tech benchmark, and a move 6850 (in the Nasdaq 100 futures, and still the 2735 level in the S&P) would be a very positive sign for bulls.

DAX Index, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The German DAX index is also showing some tentative short-term relative strength although it remains almost 10% below its all-time high, and it remains a strong negative divergence to be monitored.

Forex Markets Quiet

EUR/USD, 4-Hour Chart Analysis

The main pairs are trading in a choppy narrow range today after the strong move in the Yen and the drop in the USD yesterday. US Treasury Yields are edging lower today, helping the calm in equities and currencies, but on a bearish note, commodity currencies failed to rebound so far, and they were providing good signals since the crash. Day-traders should note that the Canadian Dollar will likely be very active again, with the Canadian CPI report coming out pre-market.

To sum the outlook up, we are still leaning on the risk-off side here regarding the short-term outlook, but we wouldn’t bet the farm on that, as there are mixed signals before the weekend.

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Important: Never invest (trade with) money you can't afford to comfortably lose. Always do your own research and due diligence before placing a trade. Read our Terms & Conditions here. Trade recommendations and analysis are written by our analysts which might have different opinions. Read my 6 Golden Steps to Financial Freedom here. Best regards, Jonas Borchgrevink.

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